Monmouth-NH: Warren 27, Biden 25, Sanders 12, Buttigieg 10

[AngryBudgie]

Jeez...

[AngryBudgie]

Warren might be peaking 2-3 months too early ...

Possibly, but unlike Harris and Pete(and the 2016 Republican primary field), her rise has been slow and steady. That points to her actually winning over voters and not being the flavor of the month.  

[AngryBudgie]

I'd say that IA/NH are must wins for Warren/Sanders, and she's getting the better of him in both right now. But there's still a long way left to go.

That said, things start to get really, really interesting if Warren takes both IA and NH. It definitely wouldn't guarantee her the nomination, especially if Biden can hold down the fort with the black vote (particularly in the South), but it gives her a very credible path. Biden will likely win SC and the other Southern states barring something wildly unexpected, but margins matter. Will he be able to win them by the ~50+ point massive landslides that Hillary did? If so, he'll probably still take the nomination after much angst. If not, he'd be in serious danger of losing.

And LOL at Gabbard making the debate anyway after all the breathless commentary and spilled ink regarding "riggage." If she wasn't polling so abysmally she wouldn't have been teetering on the edge of qualification to the point that interpretation of a single poll would make any difference regardless.

I’m curious to see the primary polls after this Ukraine thing, which looks like it’ll have the potential to gone on a while. I think it has a lot of potential to suck all of Warren’s momentum away while the spotlight is clearly on Trump and Biden and makes Biden look sympathetic

Nh/IA are must wins for anyone not named Biden.

Warren's rise started when she was one of the first major candidate to call for impeachment. If anything, the Ukraine scandal helps her.

[AngryBudgie]

I'd say that IA/NH are must wins for Warren/Sanders, and she's getting the better of him in both right now. But there's still a long way left to go.

That said, things start to get really, really interesting if Warren takes both IA and NH. It definitely wouldn't guarantee her the nomination, especially if Biden can hold down the fort with the black vote (particularly in the South), but it gives her a very credible path. Biden will likely win SC and the other Southern states barring something wildly unexpected, but margins matter. Will he be able to win them by the ~50+ point massive landslides that Hillary did? If so, he'll probably still take the nomination after much angst. If not, he'd be in serious danger of losing.

And LOL at Gabbard making the debate anyway after all the breathless commentary and spilled ink regarding "riggage." If she wasn't polling so abysmally she wouldn't have been teetering on the edge of qualification to the point that interpretation of a single poll would make any difference regardless.

I’m curious to see the primary polls after this Ukraine thing, which looks like it’ll have the potential to gone on a while. I think it has a lot of potential to suck all of Warren’s momentum away while the spotlight is clearly on Trump and Biden and makes Biden look sympathetic

Nh/IA are must wins for anyone not named Biden.

Warren's rise started when she was one of the first major candidate to call for impeachment. If anything, the Ukraine scandal helps her.

The Ukraine scandal is all about Trump and Biden. No one will care that Warren is one of the 150+ Dems calling for impeachment.

This is the best thing Biden could have hoped for to give a boost to his flailing campaign

Guess we'll find out but i cant say i agree.