Brazil Presidential and Congressional Elections 2018

[Senator Incitatus]

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How much sway does he actually have over the army, would he be able to get enough of a consensus?

His running mate is a member of its highest rank who has called for greater military intervention in politics. Take this for what you will.

[Senator Incitatus]

Polls have also opened in Portugal in order for the 40,000 registered Brazilian voters to cast their ballots. It will be interesting to see who win here. I believe Dilma won in Portugal in both 2010 and 2014, but since then there has been a huge influx of high middle class or upper class Brazilian who have come to live in Portugal. These voters could be more Bolsonaro leaning.

In the Portuguese community in Brazil, around 160,000 people, the president of the of the permanent council of Portuguese communities abroad, Flávio Martins, said that around 80% of the Portuguese community in Brazil will vote for Bolsonaro. He added that many Portuguese living in Brazil have been actively campaigning for Bolsonaro.

Very interesting, thanks.

[Senator Incitatus]

How did Bolsonaro get away not attending any debates?  Is it still based on doctor's orders?

Are they required? Politically he has no reason to risk it.

[Senator Incitatus]

Wow, the latest 3 polls have Bolsonaro at 59-41, 60-40 and 64-36 among valid votes.

This will be a complete landslide. Regardless of us foreigners' opinions, Bolsonaro will have a strong public mandate. The people support him. He may get a stronger result than Lula ever did.

In that sense, he is not comparable to LePen or Trump or any other new right-winger; he is leagues ahead. (Maybe Salvini is close if you consider M5S as under his influence.)

[Senator Incitatus]

These polls are all over the place. Which ones are most credible?

Does it really matter? They all show Bolsonaro winning easily.

I'd be interested in seeing some polls of other races, though.

[Senator Incitatus]

Some results from Portugal are available: In Lisbon, Bolsonaro won 64% and Haddad 36%. No results yet from Porto or Faro.

What were the first round results in Lisbon?