The Institute of 2012 GOP nomination Intrade rankings

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Christie on fire, now in third place.

Up: Romney, Christie
Down: Perry

GOP nomination

Romney 43.9
Perry 26.5
Christie 12.9
Palin 8.0
Huntsman 4.5
Paul 2.9
Bachmann 1.9
Gingrich 0.9
Giuliani 0.9
J. Bush 0.5
Johnson 0.5
Santorum 0.4
Cain 0.3
Ryan 0.3

Winning Party

GOP 50.1
Dems 48.3

Will the following potential candidates run?

Palin 27.9
Christie 20.0
Giuliani 8.2

Wow, Christie, Palin and Romney really gained at Perry's expense. Pretty crazy that well over 20% are for undeclared candidates (30% for candidates other than Perry and Romney). Huntsman seems way overvalued as well. Someone should write a book called the rise and fall of Bachmann. Christie's implied probability of getting the nomination if he runs is a crazy high 64.5%.

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While Democrats were favored before, Republicans now lead Democrats 50-48 for winning the Presidential election.

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Palin out.
Romney gains a fair amount.
Perry, Cain, and Santorum also gain.
A few candidates drop a little.

Romney 58.0
Perry 19.8
Cain 8.3
Huntsman 3.7
Paul 2.4
Gingrich 1.9
Bachmann 1.4
Giuliani 1.1
Johnson 0.6
Santorum 0.6
Huckabee 0.5
Johnson 0.5

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Romney surges, most others drop, especially Gingrich and Perry.

Romney 64.6
Gingrich 13.8
Paul 7.5
Huntsman 6.6
Perry 2.8
Bachmann 1.8
Santorum 0.7

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First post Iowa update.

The market is in heavy flux right now. Santorum is actually  the only gainer, and he didn't gain that much

Romney 78.3
Gingrich 5.5
Santorum 3.7
Huntsman 3.6
Paul 3.0
Jeb Bush 0.7
Bachmann 0.2

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Ron Paul and the people who aren't even running seem quite overvalued to me.