Georgia's Very Own Megathread! (v2)

[J. J.]

.

With 340,000 voters (according to Greg Palast) "accidentily" purged, not enough voting equipment in certain not-favorable precincts for the chief election officer who oversees his own election, declaring himself victor before certification and the obvious misuse of the secretary of state for election propaganda this would have been a Wahlfehler"(irregular election). This would automatically lead to a repitition of the election on precinct or even state level here in germany.

That isn't an exaggeration on the purge; it is untrue.  It was done by the book.

The voting equipment is probably set up by the county.

It is traditional that the person in the position does declare their own results.  For example, GHW presided over his own election results in 1988, as did Gore in 2000. 

In my state, the Secretary of State is appoint by, and serves at the pleasure of, the governor.  He oversaw the election of his boss earlier this week.  This is fairly standard.

[_]

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/11/09/georgia-2018-elections-stacey-abrams-runoff-982557

Okay uhh

[Adam Griffin]

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/11/09/georgia-2018-elections-stacey-abrams-runoff-982557

Okay uhh

Very considerate of them to buy and/or reserve airtime for our run-off candidates!

Or perhaps they think a significant share of her voters will not actually know she's not going to be on the ballot, and are attempting to drive them out for the runoff to support our other candidates.

[Adam Griffin]

By the way, Fulton County has announced that all of its provisional ballots have been assessed. How many will count? 1,556 out of 3,722 (41%). This is pretty well in line with the average of the past two elections statewide (35%) when factoring in the efforts made by volunteers to turn out provisional voters to their election boards today.

Gwinnett said that they believe 90% or so of theirs will count, which is an odd situation, but probably has to do with people showing up at the wrong precinct more than anything.

Just to illustrate what I've been saying since Wednesday:

[_]

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/11/09/georgia-2018-elections-stacey-abrams-runoff-982557

Okay uhh

Very considerate of them to buy and/or reserve airtime for our run-off candidates!

Or perhaps they think a significant share of her voters will not actually know she's not going to be on the ballot, and are attempting to drive them out for the runoff to support our other candidates.

I hope that's what they intend to actually use it for, and that this is all partly a calculated move to keep her supporters energized to go vote for Barrow, but we'll see.

[wbrocks67]

I keep hearing about votes that are left to be counted, but it feels like the vote count hasn't moved in like 2 days??

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1061019952042385408

If you want to keep up with the latest in Georgia, follow Greg Bluestein.

[Rookie Yinzer]

If they voted out of county but are still registered shouldn’t their votes for State offices count?

[Adam Griffin]

Whoops, looks like I read the original report backwards, then. Forty-one percent of Fulton's provisionals were rejected (rather than 41% accepted).  That changes the math on the previous page a tiny tiny bit, but not enough to alter the course that has been in place since Wednesday morning.

EDIT: actually, I'm not sure how to read this (i.e. the duplicate provisional ballot part specifically):

If they voted out of county but are still registered shouldn’t their votes for State offices count?

I know it works this way if you vote in the wrong precinct (but the right county); not sure about cross-county votes.

[Sbane]

What are the chances of Barrow winning the runoff? Seems like an extremely important race with 2020 implications. Hope Georgians go out there and vote.

[smoltchanov]

What are the chances of Barrow winning the runoff? Seems like an extremely important race with 2020 implications. Hope Georgians go out there and vote.

Not so good. Blacks, and other Democratic voters are, usually, less disciplined, then Republican one's, and thus run-offs always favor Republicans.

[Adam Griffin]

Bit of an update:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

This information came from Kemp. Some of this information is now out of date (Clayton & Fulton have since dumped), as there are now 4,490 counted provisional ballots showing up via SoS. We've had a total of 5,228 votes come in since the noon update (the overwhelming share of which were provisionals).

The breakdown of provisionals is as such:

Abrams - 3,221 (71.73%)
Kemp - 1,233 (27.46%)
Metz - 36 (0.81%)

Assuming the Fulton/Clayton rates of valid/invalid were along the lines of the noon report - and assuming it's a similar pattern for the remaining provisionals - there are another 10-11k or so provisional ballots outstanding (half of which will be valid), plus a few thousand military ballots.

Today's dump has shaved about 0.1 points off of the margin. Last night, it was 50.33-48.73; as of now, it's 50.28-48.78. I'd expect it to shrink by no more than another 0.1 points once everything is counted. However, it could also not shrink at all: with the biggest Democratic bases reporting, what's left may mirror the state or even skew R, as very well could the military ballots.

[InheritTheWind]

https://twitter.com/GeorgiaDemocrat/status/1061396566060216321

What is this about?

[Rookie Yinzer]

https://twitter.com/GeorgiaDemocrat/status/1061396566060216321

What is this about?

Looks like spin. I’m very conflicted because Abrams doesn’t strike me as someone who would let her supporters linger in delusion days after the election. I just can’t imagine there are votes out there that we don’t know about and they do.

[Adam Griffin]

Yeah, here's the summary of the "thousands of votes" they're fussing over:

[Alabama_Indy10]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nationalreview.com/corner/georgia-election-was-fair-brian-kemp-beat-stacy-abrams/amp/

Thoughts about this new article about the race?

[Adam Griffin]

Pretty self-explanatory:

(The map below uses 3-point thresholds instead of the usual 5-point Atlas swing thresholds. To see what this map would look like with standard Atlas swing, click here)

Abrams-Clinton Swing (2016-2018)

[henster]

There are different sets of exit polls out there and the other one is showing some differences. The one from FOX shows Abrams doing a bit better with white women 28-70 instead of 25-75 and winning women overall 56-43 instead of 51-49 while doing worse with men 40-58 instead of 46-52. Racial breakdown in FOX exit poll is also a bit different at 63-37 vs. 60-40 in CNN one. I have no idea why there's a disparity in the exit polls but it's interesting.

https://www.foxnews.com/midterms-2018/voter-analysis?filter=GA&type=G

https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/georgia

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Abrams reserving ad time for the runoff. Clearly she knows something we don't: https://www.politico.com/story/2018/11/09/georgia-2018-elections-stacey-abrams-runoff-982557

[lfromnj]

Abrams reserving ad time for the runoff. Clearly she knows something we don't: https://www.politico.com/story/2018/11/09/georgia-2018-elections-stacey-abrams-runoff-982557

yeah its called a big ego.

[J. J.]

Keep in mind it is not so much if Kemp won, but if he got more than 50%.  So far, Kemp has remained at 50.3%.

[henster]

Honestly even if she makes it to the recount she'll probably lose by a bigger margin. I don't see the endgame, I know it's hard to concede to someone like Kemp who actively committed voter suppression but if there's no path, there's no path.

[Adam Griffin]

The math just isn't there. There'd have to be another 50k+ provisional ballots or 50k mail ballots in addition to what we know is there outstanding to narrow the margin enough to push Kemp below 50.

Remember that for every 2 votes gained, the 50%+1 number also increases by 1 whether the votes go to Abrams or Kemp. Even if you add 25,000 valid provisional votes to the mix and Abrams wins 70%, we're still over 5,000 votes short of the runoff threshold. Add 50,000 more mail ballots at the proportions she won the remainder by (~60%), and we're still almost 6,000 votes short. This has been obvious since Wednesday.

They aren't there. The people in the campaign know they're not there, the state party knows they're not there, and Abrams knows they're not there. I don't know what their endgame or plans are with this (whether it's to raise money to pay off debts, try to trick low-info voters into coming back out for the runoff for Barrow/Miller, or just to be spiteful), but it's dumb at best (i.e. assuming nobody running the show has a basic understanding of math) and manipulative at worst (i.e. assuming our voters are just plan stupid and unmotivated).

I'm about to lose my s[inks]t within party circles. Supposedly, this has been and is "their top priority" - as opposed to mobilizing for a runoff where the guy who rigged the election months (or even years) in advance can be replaced with somebody who'll guarantee this doesn't happen again.

Abrams reserving ad time for the runoff. Clearly she knows something we don't: https://www.politico.com/story/2018/11/09/georgia-2018-elections-stacey-abrams-runoff-982557

yeah its called a big ego.

I can't tell you how many times I've heard people in politics around the state essentially remark or paraphrase "that's just Stacey being Stacey". To my knowledge, she hasn't said a word since Tuesday. She's a Yale-educated professional. I'm a college dropout who nearly failed high school calc. Yet I seemingly know something she and all those around her don't - or it's just pure manipulation and/or ego. She could have already conceded and be on the campaign trial urging voters to not let this happen again by turning out next month.

[Adam Griffin]

There are different sets of exit polls out there and the other one is showing some differences. The one from FOX shows Abrams doing a bit better with white women 28-70 instead of 25-75 and winning women overall 56-43 instead of 51-49 while doing worse with men 40-58 instead of 46-52. Racial breakdown in FOX exit poll is also a bit different at 63-37 vs. 60-40 in CNN one. I have no idea why there's a disparity in the exit polls but it's interesting.

https://www.foxnews.com/midterms-2018/voter-analysis?filter=GA&type=G

https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/georgia

Looking at the racial crosstabs alone, the Fox one is almost certainly further off. Keep in mind that GA records turnout by race, age and gender all the way down to the precinct level. We'll have that data available in a few weeks, but if the Fox exit poll were accurate, then it'd mean that not only did Abrams have no impact on Democratic and/or black turnout (a point I believe can be argued, but not here and now), but that she actually harmed turnout. A 63/30 electorate (based on the margin between black and white %, rather than nominal figures) when factoring in demographic shifts and considering that it was 64/29 in 2014 would be lagging simple demographic turnover in the state.

Though it's worth noting that CNN's "white women supported Kemp by larger margins than white men" crosstab is of course crap. If I had to speculate, I'd say the gender aspects of the Fox exit polls are closer to the truth, and the racial aspects of the CNN poll are as well. As far as education goes, probably closer to an average of the two: GA tends not to have much of an education gap, but what Fox shows is absolutely insane - especially given the shifts in the suburbs and rural areas compared to 4 years ago.

[Aurelio21]

.

With 340,000 voters (according to Greg Palast) "accidentily" purged, not enough voting equipment in certain not-favorable precincts for the chief election officer who oversees his own election, declaring himself victor before certification and the obvious misuse of the secretary of state for election propaganda this would have been a Wahlfehler"(irregular election). This would automatically lead to a repitition of the election on precinct or even state level here in germany.

That isn't an exaggeration on the purge; it is untrue.  It was done by the book.

The voting equipment is probably set up by the county.

It is traditional that the person in the position does declare their own results.  For example, GHW presided over his own election results in 1988, as did Gore in 2000. 

In my state, the Secretary of State is appoint by, and serves at the pleasure of, the governor.  He oversaw the election of his boss earlier this week.  This is fairly standard.

[0/quote]

Yet there is the issue of Mr Kemp ignoring the blatant cyber security issues and misfunding of county equipment. Mr Kemp has used his powers to implement the "mismatch law" before it was law.
This is at least odiuos.
I do agree with you on that there are simply not enough votes left to trigger a runoff. Stacey Abrams should concede the race, and campaign for the SoS runoff instead of going full conspiracy theory.