2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original

[Hindsight was 2020]

Yougov/Economist 1/30

Democrats: 42
Republicans: 37

And Reuters/Ipsos went from D+8 to D+7.

This is an improvement from their previous poll which was

Democrats: 41
Republicans: 37

You expect Limo not to be a hack

[KingSweden]

Monmouth poll coming soon. My guess is D+11.

Seems a bit ambitious. I’ll say D+7 or D+8

[LimoLiberal]

https://twitter.com/PollsterPatrick/status/958757096723566592

"Not for nothing, as the kids say. But we're releasing some poll numbers in 20 minutes that could represent a blip or might portend a shift in public opinion. Some news day, eh?"

[Santander]

You are not even a good troll.

[LimoLiberal]

Monmouth

Democrats: 47 (-4)
Republicans: 45 (+9)


Holy hell.

Nancy Pelosi seen bawling her eyes out in the corner.

[Gass3268]

Monmouth

Democrats: 47 (-4)
Republicans: 45 (+9)

[Skye]

Monmouth

Democrats: 47 (-4)
Republicans: 45 (+9)


Holy hell.

Nancy Pelosi seen bawling her eyes out in the corner.

So much for those predictions, huh?

Anyway, it's still very early.

[Hindsight was 2020]

That's an outliner if I've ever seen one

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Meh. Not concerned.

[Yank2133]

Trump has a 42% approval rating in that poll.

If he is hanging around that number, then it doesn't matter what the generic ballot lead is.

[Doimper]

So much for those predictions, huh?

Anyway, it's still very early.

Please don't quote the moron, thanks.

[KingSweden]

That's an outliner if I've ever seen one

The approval rating suggests this is a reversion to the mean from a December outlier. This actually corresponds pretty well with what Monmouth was showing for most of the year.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Trump has a 42% approval rating in that poll.

If he is hanging around that number, then it doesn't matter what the generic ballot lead is.

This. The economy has never been a major factor in midterms... well, sometimes it has but the popularity of a president is more important.

[Yank2133]

Trump has a 42% approval rating in that poll.

If he is hanging around that number, then it doesn't matter what the generic ballot lead is.

This. The economy has never been a major factor in midterms... well, sometimes it has but the popularity of a president is more important.

Yeah, if the President starts cranking out 50%+ approval ratings then I will be concerned. But he is hanging around the high 30's to early-mid 40s then his party is going to be in trouble in November.

[Virginiá]

Clearly Democrats are doomed. LimoLiberal's hot take is all we need to pay attention to.

[Yank2133]

Trump has a 42% approval rating in that poll.

If he is hanging around that number, then it doesn't matter what the generic ballot lead is.

This. The economy has never been a major factor in midterms... well, sometimes it has but the popularity of a president is more important.

Yeah, if the President starts cranking out 50%+ approval ratings then I will be concerned. But he is hanging around the high 30's to early-mid 40s then his party is going to be in trouble in November.

To add to my point. Trump had a 43% approval rating in the exit polls here in VA during the election in November.

The GOP was completely wiped out.

[Doimper]

Clearly Democrats are doomed. LimoLiberal's hot take is all we need to pay attention to.

Have you guys considered banning the moron that's cheerfully sh**tting everywhere?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

This poll isn't great for Dems, but there is nothing to worry about. Of course they should still look at it and fix their strategy, but there were polls similar like this where the Democrats were beating the GOP in 2010 and then lost. We need to look at the environment and history, both of which heavily favor the Democrats.

* Dem candidates outraising Reps by miles
* Record number of GOP politicians resigning
* Highly unpopular President

[Wiz in Wis]

Trump has a 42% approval rating in that poll.

If he is hanging around that number, then it doesn't matter what the generic ballot lead is.

This. The economy has never been a major factor in midterms... well, sometimes it has but the popularity of a president is more important.

Yeah, if the President starts cranking out 50%+ approval ratings then I will be concerned. But he is hanging around the high 30's to early-mid 40s then his party is going to be in trouble in November.

To add to my point. Trump had a 43% approval rating in the exit polls here in VA during the election in November.

The GOP was completely wiped out.

Exactly. Living and dying by every wiggle in the generic ballot is pointless, but we are who we are.

[KingSweden]

Trump has a 42% approval rating in that poll.

If he is hanging around that number, then it doesn't matter what the generic ballot lead is.

This. The economy has never been a major factor in midterms... well, sometimes it has but the popularity of a president is more important.

Yeah, if the President starts cranking out 50%+ approval ratings then I will be concerned. But he is hanging around the high 30's to early-mid 40s then his party is going to be in trouble in November.

To add to my point. Trump had a 43% approval rating in the exit polls here in VA during the election in November.

The GOP was completely wiped out.

Exactly. Living and dying by every wiggle in the generic ballot is pointless, but we are who we are.

Aren’t those the words to a Kesha song?

[LimoLiberal]

Clearly Democrats are doomed. LimoLiberal's hot take is all we need to pay attention to.

Have you guys considered banning the moron that's cheerfully sh**tting everywhere?

The moron that correctly predicted the results of a poll before it was released... and has been the only person who correctly identified the Trump and GOP surge in polling.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Clearly Democrats are doomed. LimoLiberal's hot take is all we need to pay attention to.

Have you guys considered banning the moron that's cheerfully sh**tting everywhere?

Yeah, you're still a moron. Why? Well, let me lay this out for you: it's one poll, you thought the PA35 special election was going to be competitive despite the fact the Democrat won with 75% of the vote, you thought an overcast in northern Virginia would cost Ralph Northam the election, you think little bumps in the approval ratings means a surge, and you talked about a "collapse" in the Economist poll despite the fact the Democrats INCREASED their margin from the last one.

[Young Conservative]

This poll isn't great for Dems, but there is nothing to worry about. Of course they should still look at it and fix their strategy, but there were polls similar like this where the Democrats were beating the GOP in 2010 and then lost. We need to look at the environment and history, both of which heavily favor the Democrats.

* Dem candidates outraising Reps by miles
* Record number of GOP politicians resigning
* Highly unpopular President

His approvals are going up though...fox, cnn, and mounmouth  have all shown upticks. Democrats shouldn’t take their natural advantage this year for granted, especially when the DNC is 200k away from insolvency when the GOP has millions in cash on hand plus the Koch network.

[Virginiá]

Clearly Democrats are doomed. LimoLiberal's hot take is all we need to pay attention to.

Have you guys considered banning the moron that's cheerfully sh**tting everywhere?

I can't ban him, and I'm probably in a minority if not alone among the mods who think career trolls like him should be banned.

But if he keeps posting commentary meant to incite arguments then I'll consider moving his posts and threads to a single megathread.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Even with that Monmouth poll, the RCP average still has the Democrats up by 7.5