Much more believable than the other polls. Lean D.
Not really. I wouldn't call it Lean D right now, with all the conflicting polls.
This race has all the ingredients to be a really close one, within one point ...
We've heard it before.
I'm skeptical that Republicans can win a special election here given that Democratic turnout is likely to be through the roof and Jones is probably being underpolled. Those allegations do matter, whether people like to believe it or not.
Not entirely comparable.
AL is roughly 10% more Republican than Missouri, McCaskill was (is) a sitting Senator while Jones is not, etc.
I think Alabama being such a Republican state will cancel out Moore's (alleged) failings in the past. And the tax plan (a plus for Trump and the GOP with voters) will likely also cancel out his general unpopularity (in AL he's actually above-water with 50-55% approvals).
Moore might slightly win by 0.1% to 3%, or slightly lose.
I guess it won't be a blowout for either candidate ... (but the trend from the special elections in GA, MT, KS, UT etc. suggest that Moore could slightly pull it out).
