If the race really is single-digits, and it seems to be, I'm interested in in the down-ballot races, particularly the 16th.
Have to think Democratic chances in the 2nd and 8th were riding on a Murphy landslide (considering they didn't even win them in his first win, an actual landslide). The 16th might still flip D due to trends, but then it's Ciattarelli's own district, so maybe he can hold them off for one more cycle. Looking past that, the 11th is the only other place I can see a seat flipping. The 14th and 38th both ran close to the state in 2017 and though the 14th may be trending slightly R, I don't see enough movement unless Ciattarelli is actually winning the state.
Plus ça change is always the name of the game in New Jersey. You can count the incumbents who have lost this millennia on your hands.
SD-11 actually had more Dem primary votes than Republican this year, which was not the case in SD-16. I would bet that Republicans hold SD-16 before they win SD-11.
