Spanish elections and politics

[Velasco]

Some details with regards to the sresults in the district of Casco Antiguo in Sevilla. The district is divided in 12 neighbourhoods. Looking at the map of results by precinct it becomes evident that there is a clear divide between the central and southern neighbourhoods (very right wing) and the northern neighbourhoods (left wing with a strong AA support). The neighbourhood of El Arenal (located by the left side of the river in the south of the district) strikes as the more conservative place, with PP as the first party and Vpx coming in second place. The Santa Cruz neighbourhood by the river (Sevilla Cathedral) has similar results. In neighbourhoods like San Bernardo or La Salud PP comes first, while Cs and Vox are second depending on precincts. To the north the neighbourhoods of San Gil, Feria and San Lorenzo lean clearly to the left, with AA polling above 35% in some precincts.  

[Velasco]

Some of the maps in the previous post are mine

[Former President tack50]

Some of the maps in the previous post are mine

Oh, I didn't know that! Great maps!

[palandio]

Thank you, Velasco and tack50! Very interesting informations.

And again I'm trying to generalize: Spanish inner-cities in a wider sense (including the 19th century expansions) are usually quite conservative, at least seen as a whole. But there can be areas that have a strong alternative left (Podemos or similar, not PSOE) and these areas are often the historical city centers or parts thereof, or former inner-city poor-people quarters.

[Velasco]

Thank you, Velasco and tack50! Very interesting informations.

And again I'm trying to generalize: Spanish inner-cities in a wider sense (including the 19th century expansions) are usually quite conservative, at least seen as a whole. But there can be areas that have a strong alternative left (Podemos or similar, not PSOE) and these areas are often the historical city centers or parts thereof, or former inner-city poor-people quarters.

Pretty much. Barri Gotic in Barcelona and Lavapies in Madrid fall clearly in the last typology. El Arenal in downtown Sevilla is very posh, the kind of place in the city where the archetypal Andslusian señorito can live. I guess the neighbourhoods in central Sevilla that voted for AA fall in the typology of working class inner-city neighbourhoods as well.

[Velasco]

Some of the maps in the previous post are mine

Oh, I didn't know that! Great maps!

Go back in this thread and you'll find maps of the 2015 elections (local, regional and general). There are several city maps at district level

[Velasco]

Troubled anniversary

https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/12/06/inenglish/1544084057_287552.html

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[Skye]

So I recently moved to Spain and wanted to explore the electoral trends in a few places. Is there a site that lets me see results by district? Or one that has interactive maps. The Infoelectoral site doesn't have a breakdown by district. Any help would be appreciated!

[Former President tack50]

So I recently moved to Spain and wanted to explore the electoral trends in a few places. Is there a site that lets me see results by district? Or one that has interactive maps. The Infoelectoral site doesn't have a breakdown by district. Any help would be appreciated!

What do you mean by district? If you mean by constituency/province there are certainly several. Historia electoral is a particularly good resource in my opinion with a lot of information, though it doesn't have maps at all.

http://www.historiaelectoral.com/es.html

If you mean by municipality though, those are much much harder to find. El Mundo has maps available for the last 3 general elections (2011, 2015, 2016):

https://www.elmundo.es/grafico/espana/2016/06/27/57709ec1e5fdea870f8b4618.html

Alternatively, Público has a database with results by municipality for all general elections, but no maps other than at the provincial level:

https://especiales.publico.es/resultados-elecciones/generales/2000/

(replace 2000 with the appropiate election year)

Finally there's this resource at the Ministry of the Interior which has apparently information by municipality and even allegedly by precinct! It has information for every kind of election except for regional elections (for those you'd have to go to the appropiate site from each regional government) However it's harder to use since it doesn't give percentages and has huge Excel spreadsheets. Still, if you are familiar with statistics programs you should be able to do a lot with it.

http://www.infoelectoral.mir.es/infoelectoral/min/areaDescarga.html?method=inicio

[Velasco]

Historical results by municipality are easily available at infoelectoral. The Ministry of the Interior collects data for general, local, EP elections and referenda. Infoelectoral has results at municipal district level, but only for a few major cities: Madrid, Barcelona, Valencia, Sevilla, Zaragoza, Málaga and Bilbao

http://www.infoelectoral.mir.es/min/

Results of regional elections at constituency and municipal level are available at the websites of the different regional governments.

The websites of some city councils such as Madrid and Barcelona have results at neighbourhood level (subdivision of the municipal district) for local, regional or general elections. This information is not available in all the major municipalities.

Finally there's  data at precinct level available in Excels

[Skye]

Thank you. I'll use those links. I also found one from El País, and I find it quite useful:

https://resultados.elpais.com/resultats/eleccions/2016/generals/congreso/

The websites of some city councils such as Madrid and Barcelona have results at neighbourhood level (subdivision of the municipal district) for local, regional or general elections. This information is not available in all the major municipalities.

Thank you, this is more or less what I was looking for.

[Velasco]

Vote transfers according to Sigma Dos

Vox catches from:PP 178000, Cs 58000, Abstention 39000, Others 33000, Podemos 28000, PSOE 26000, IU 5000
Cs catches from: PP 178000, Abstention 103000, PSOE 99000, Others 35000, Podemos 7000, IU 7000
Abstention catches from: Podemos 298000, PSOE 254000, IU 115000, PP 39000, Others 29000, Cs 27000

I read yesterday some analysis on strong Vox precincts in El Mundo that I'm not able to find now. In short: half of the precincts where Vox gets more than 20% of the vote are located in Almería province, namely in the Poniente region also known as " The Plastic Sea" because of the extensive greenhouses (El Ejido, Roquetas de Mar...). The other half is located elsewhere and correspond to wealthy inner city neighbourhoods (such as Los Remedios and El Arenal in Sevilla) or affluent suburbs ("villa with swimming pool" typology)  in the periphery of towns and cities. Vox received less support in working class areas, but this doesn't imply they performed bad. Important: there is no correlation between high proportion of immigrants and strong support for Vox outside Almeria province.

[Former President tack50]

First real poll after the Andalusian election:

Invymark-La Sexta



Seems plausible though I think Vox should be at 10% instead unless there's a lot of dual voting. Podemos is also quite low.

Also the right wing bloc at 53%, which would be a record for any ideological bloc (largest thus far would be PSOE+PCE's 52% in 1982). PSOE+PCE 82' would still beat PP+Cs+Vox today in terms of seats because they are more fragmented while in 82 PSOE got a whopping 48% of the vote. (an even swing would mean 190 seats for PP+Cs+Vox and 178 for PP+Cs alone; while PSOE+PCE got 206 and 202 for PSOE alone)

Similarly, the left wing bloc (PSOE+UP) is at 38%, only marginally higher than PSOE+IU's result in 2011 (36%)

[Velasco]

Fragmentation of the vote for Vox: from the greenhouses to the high level developments

https://www.elmundo.es/espana/2018/12/08/5c0ac8e121efa09c2f8b45f9.html

Vox received more than 20% of the vote in a total of 316 precincts or census sections.

Vox succeeds in the coast of Almeria province ("Sea of Plastic"). In Sevilla, Córdoba, Algeciras or Puerto de Santa María the Vox strongholds are located in high end developments with detached houses and swimming pools.

Vox leader Santiago Abascal told to the ABC newspaper they got an "excellent result" in Las Tres Mil Viviendas of Sevilla, a low income neighbourhood with areas of high social deprivation and insecurity. The claim is false, since the support for Vox in the area is always below 10%, in contrast to nearly 30% support in nearby affluent neighbourhoods to the south of Sevilla. A look at this map of results by precinct confirms that: in the poor sections of southern Sevilla known as Las Tres Mil Viviendas (Barriada Murillo, Las Letanías) PSOE comes first and AA is the second party with turnout always below 50%.

https://www.eldiario.es/andalucia/MAPA-partido-elecciones-andaluzas-manzana_0_842366730.html

There are 62 precincts in the city of Sevilla where Vox gets more than 20%, located in affluent neighbourhoods belonging to Los Remedios, Palmera-Bellavista and Casco Antiguo (the historic centre). Significant features of these neighbourhoods are: low foreign population (roughly 3%) and high turnout (around 75%). Similarly the places in Córdoba where Vox gets more support are the historic centre and the high end residential developments north of the city such as El Brillante and El Naranjo, neighbourhoods with a strong support for PP and Cs as well. Average income in the Vox strongholds of Córdoba and Sevilla is well above average.

There are other Vox strongholds located in coastal municipalities of the Málaga province and in the Bay of Algeciras ("Bay of Gibraltar" for the Brits). Suburban coastal villa developments in the periphery of Algeciras and Puerto de Santa María record 20% to 25% vote for Vox. Similar results can be found in isolated developments near to golf resorts located in Marbella, Mijas or Benalmádena (coast of Málaga).

Half of the precincts where Vox gets more than 20% are in Almería province. They are in areas of El Ejido, Roquetas de Mar, Almería, Adra, Vicar and Níjar. These locations are within the extensive greenhouse network known as the "Sea of Plastic". The economy of this region is highly reliant on irrigated greenhouse crops and the workforce is immigrant. The proportion of foreign population in municipalities like El Ejido (Vox came first getting 29.5%) is above 30%.

As said in the previous post, there is no correlation between vote for Vox and high proportion of foreignpopulation outside Almeria province.

In the 316 precincts where Vox gets more than 20% all parties lose support except Ciudadanos.

This analysis in El Mundo features some maps and graphs.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Pretty funny how much the PSOE's strategy of hyping up Vox to create discord in the right have backfired huge on them. Feel bad for Sanchez, but glad the barons will end up in prison.

[Former President tack50]

I don't think any of the barons are going to prison any time soon. PSOE is corrupt but most current officials outside Andalucia seem to be clean. Susana Diaz herself is probably clean though her inner circle probably isn't.

Only "barons" that are going to prison are Jose Antonio Griñán and Manuel Chaves (the 2 predecessors to Susana Díaz as Andalusian premier), both for the ERE scandal.

Also, we just got 2 regional polls for Navarra. For some reason that community seems to be getting a lot of polling.

Gizkaer for Euskal Irrati Telebista (the Basque regional government's TV station)





PP right at the 3% hurdle, though they give them 0 seats instead of something like 0-1.

Navarrómetro (apparently the regional equivalent to the nation wide CIS)





I certainly trust the first poll more than the 2nd one (much more reliable), even if it might have a pro-GBai bias (GBai works somewhat as the Navarra brand of PNV, but more left wing?).

In any case, I still think the Navarra government is lean GBai. UPN has a shot of coming back, but I wouldn't count on it.

[Velasco]

Geroa Bai is a coalition acting in Navarre including PNV, Zabaltzen and Atarrabia Taldea. The two latter are centre-left or left-wing Basque nationalist parties. The leader of Zabaltzen is premier Uxue Barkos, who is the most important and charismatic figure of Geroa Bai. I would challenge the notion of GBai as the brand of PNV in Navarre,  since this party never had electoral success in the region running in its own. Batasuna, EA or Aralar (currently part of EH Bildu) were more relevant in Navarre than PNV. I think GBai represents a more moderate version of Basque nationalism than EH Bildu and its success relies in good measure on Uxue Barkos.

I suspect that the role of Cs in the ongoing negotiation yo conform the Abdalusian government will be a source of amusement. Oranges are already having a hard time trying to deny the obvious: PP and Cs need the support of the far right to govern. This is not a major problem for the PP, apparently. Vox leaders say they don't want posts in government,  but they want to be heard and their vote is not for free. It seems that Vox won't tolerate to be ignored by Cs. I wonder what are going to do Manuel Valls or Guy Verhofstadt  

Are PP, Cs and Vox conforming an informal right wing nationalist block playing the music of José Maria Aznar, as some analysts suggest?

[Velasco]

New left wing party with former judge Baltasar Garzón and former IU leader Gaspar Llamazares as main figures could contest next EP, regional and local elections. The party is created from a platform of IU critics and left-wing disenchanted called Actúa ("Act")

https://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20181215/453558362197/llamazares-garzon-actua-nueva-formacion-elecciones.html?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_content=politica&utm_campaign=lv&fbclid=IwAR1bYTFgysHjmgoqKdqc45Q71alKOEzofQ6Bzmo09jSFcO2S0hp9Jy_5Ryw

Former IU leaders Gaspar Llamazares and Cayo Lara, the IU mayor of Zamora and other critics signed a document criticizing IU and Podemos leaderships shortly after the Andalusian elections. They accused Alberto Garzón and Pablo Iglesias of having more interest in surpassing PSOE as the main force in the left than building a progressive majority.

[Oryxslayer]

New left wing party with former judge Baltasar Garzón and former IU leader Gaspar Llamazares as main figures could contest next EP, regional and local elections. The party is created from a platform of IU critics and left-wing disenchanted called Actúa ("Act")

https://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20181215/453558362197/llamazares-garzon-actua-nueva-formacion-elecciones.html?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_content=politica&utm_campaign=lv&fbclid=IwAR1bYTFgysHjmgoqKdqc45Q71alKOEzofQ6Bzmo09jSFcO2S0hp9Jy_5Ryw

Former IU leaders Gaspar Llamazares and Cayo Lara, the IU mayor of Zamora and other critics signed a document criticizing IU and Podemos leaderships shortly after the Andalusian elections. They accused Alberto Garzón and Pablo Iglesias of having more interest in surpassing PSOE as the main force in the left than building a progressive majority.

Do we think there is enough time until new elections are called for these guys to go anywhere or impact the results, or is the timeframe too soon?

[Velasco]

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Personally I'm rather sceptic about the electoral viability of this party. I admit that I was totally wrong about the impact of Vox (it was a last minute surge in good measure). Back in the day very few predicted the impact of Podemos in the 2014 EP rlections. Said this, I think that people like Llamazares or the former judge Garzón can hardly represent a fresh alternative. I think that Gaspar Llamazares is not a bad guy, but... Anyway winning seats in the EP parliament is relatively easy due to the proportional system, or having some councilors or even members of regional parliaments (Llamazares was the IU candidate in Asturias). These guys are affiliated to the European 'party' launched by Yannis Varoufakis.

This project is a symptom of dissension in the left (nothing new), but not all if the IU and Podemos critics will join Actúa.  For instance Iñigo Errejon, the leader of a faction in Podemos and candidate in the region of Madrid. He says openly that his vision and strategy are different from those of Pablo Iglesias,  but he is one of the founders of Podemos and won't leave. Errejon advocates to dispute the idea of Spain and the national emblems to the right. This doesn't imply mimicking the Vox jingoism as the PP does, but proposing another concept of patriotism and giving people some certainties...

https://ctxt.es/es/20181212/Politica/23449/íñigo-Errejón-entrevista-Comunidad-de-Madrid-pacto-Gabilondo-símbolos-nacionales.htm

Errejon thinks that creating "anti-fascist" fronts is not a good strategy to counter the rise of the far right, because Vox is the symptom and not the illness. I tend to agree with this point of view.

On the opposite side, veteran IU leaders Julio Anguita and Manolo Monereo (currently Podemos deputy and very influential for Pablo Iglesias) say that the success of Salvini in Italy is due to the failure of the left and even praise his "social policies",  as well as his defence of  "popular sovereignty" and "national independence". In my opinion this is going way too far (I don't think Pablo Iglesias sanctions this point of view, thankfully)...

[Former President tack50]

Honestly, the big impact if it stands alone (instead of going into coalition with Podemos and/or IU), would be 2:

1: Will they get seats in the EU parliamentary election? It's quite easy to get one, they'd need roughly 1.5-1.6% of the vote. If they get even 1 seat that will give them some traction

2: If they choose to contest regional elections, how well will they do in Asturias? (the home region of Llamazares, I'll assume he runs under Actua and not IU if he runs for reelection, he is still IU-Asturias regional party leader after all).

Still, I can't really see them getting much more than say, 2.5% of the vote and 1 seat.

[BigSerg]

Lol, three new polls have come out and they are all horrible for the left

[BigSerg]

El confidencial

Psoe25.8%
Cs:20%
PP:19.6%
UP:15.5%
Vox:8%

PP, Vox, Cs= 48%
Psoe, UP= 41%

La razon

Psoe: 24.8%
Cs:18%
PP:24.4%
UP:17.2%
Vox:8.7%

Vox, cs pp=51.1%
Psoe, UP=42%
Psoe,UP,Others:49%

ABC

Psoe:24.2%
Cs:20.7%
PP:20.5%
UP:14.2%
Vox:8.7%

PP, Cs, Vox=49.9%


30% of the respondents answered that the unit of Spain was their number one priority when voting


In pp, cs and vox was the number one priority of their voters

[SPQR]

That seems a pretty huge bump for Vox...?

[Oryxslayer]

That seems a pretty huge bump for Vox...?

It appears to be mostly coming from PP/PSOE rather then C's which is interesting.