Non-political 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Megathread

[Ban my account ffs!]

Of course this is still unfolding... I hope the Houston (and other nearby places) posters are staying dry and alive. 

It was such terrible irony that while Harvey was making landfall, Chicago had the most absolute perfect weather (not a cloud in the sky, a dew point around 50F, and temperatures in the mid 70s).

In fact, the two are related.  Gulf hurricane strikes are more common when a strong trough is in place across the eastern U.S. during summer.  This causes a broad northerly flow over the central U.S. which brings dry, pleasant weather.  The same trough also draws the storms into the U.S. rather than Mexico.

When there is a large ridge across the eastern U.S., storms are often drawn into Mexico or Atlantic storms recurve and affect the classic eastern seaboard hotspots (NC).

[Ban my account ffs!]

So the NWS said 25 inches of rain fell near Houston in 24 hours, and that beats the all time state record in all but four states (saw a tweet about this but I don't have enough posts to post links.

On top of that, the Euro model for the fifth time expects the storm to head back into the Gulf, re-intensify for a bit, and turn and make a near or direct hit on Houston. Another 24-30 inches will fall on top of what has already fallen by next Thursday. This is so bad.

Yeah that would pretty much be catastrophic.

[Ban my account ffs!]

The 12z GFS run has Jose rolling around in the Atlantic before making a direct hit to NYC.  Joe Bastardi is already entertaining a US landfall for Jose but it is too early to tell.