Prattle on about the 'generic ballot' numbers, I personally don't think generic ballot numbers are a proper way to judge a party's situation. It's sort of like asking "Pizza vs. Pasta" it's so vague it's meaningless.
People tend to dismiss polls when the polls don't look good.
The Republicans are doing pretty well on a generic ballor for a party on the verge of oblivion but this runs against the narrative you prefer so you dismiss it.
In any case, I'm not sure how you can cling dearly to that one thing considering that hispanics and asians, the two largest growing minority groups, are trending against you, young people are trending against you (and have been for a long time), certain key swing areas & states are trending against you (and have been for a long time)
Frankly, your analysis of demographic groups is awfully superficial. To say that groups x, y, and z are trending away from the Republicans in recent years means nothing. What matters is that Americans generally, not sub-groups of Americans, have been trending away from Republicans. Breaking it up into demographic groups focuses on the trees instead of the forest.
Why have Americans been trending away from Republicans? George W. Bush, that's why.
The central theme of the 2006 and 2008 Democratic victories were that they were against Bush. In 2010, the winning theme for Republicans will be that they are against Obama and his policies, policies that will fail to generate an economic recovery (In fact, they will deepen our economic problems).
To focus on a particluar state or a particular demographic misses the point. There was a big shift in
general attitudes between 2004 and 2006, a shift that seen across demographic groups. Americans shifted, not latinos or Asians or the state of Colorado. This shift was not driven by anything other than George Bush's seemingly endless failures as President.
Obama's approvals have remained in roughly the same area so far
Yes, he's managed to keep his approval numbers among likely voters at 57% three and a half whole months into his Presidency. I guess that means the Republicans should just hang their cleats up, eh?
Like I've said to you before, the economy is not recovering anytime soon and the failure of the economy to recover will sap those numbers badly. I've seen Presidents who seemed invincible at one point be brought low by economic suffering before. George H.W. Bush can tell you all about that.
a record low number of people identify as Republicans, voters have been ditching the Republican party steadily in critical states, people strongly disapprove of congressional Republicans, and people deeply distrust Republican competence on the economy and favor the Democrats by wide margins.
Except that Republicans are closing the gap on most of the important issues. The Democrat advantage on the economy is only 1% now.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/trust_on_issues/trust_on_issuesTo make your argument "Anything can happen!" renders any discussion on this site pointless, so I don't even know why you're participating if that's the case.
I'm not arguing anything can happen.
I'm arguing that I have a good idea that a particular thing will happen.
The economy is in the midst of an extended period of decline and that the incumbent party will be blamed for their failure to handle the country's problems. That is not an 'anything can happen' argument. It argues that a particular outcome is overwhelmingly more likely than any other outcome.
I'm not sure what point you're trying to make by that. You're either making a "duh" statement so obvious I'm not getting it or you've mastered the Sam Spade non-statement statement.
Again, the point is that demographic shifts and trends in particular states are not what matters now.
What matters is the economy and events related to the economy (And to a lesser extent, geopolitical events like whether there is another terrorist attack and whether Iran gets the bomb).
Pay your consultants whatever you want for whatever strategies you like. At the end of the day, they do not matter. If the economy recovers, it will cement a long period of Democratic control in American politics. If it does not, the the Republicans will get a chance to do better at solving the problems faced by ordinary Americans.
The idea that my comments are non-committal statements is silly. I've laid my position out clearly that by 2012, Barack Obama will lose re-election because of the economy and that many Democrats will lose their seats in Congress a well.
