Guys, abandon all hope, period.
In a year like 2006 or 2008, he'd kick the s**t out of Rand. After all, McConnell was at real danger from an unknown candidate two years ago, and in 2004 unknown guy named Mongiardo comes just within an inches to unseat Bunning, and he'd do it if there were no Bush coattails.
Conway, much stronger politician than Mongiardo and Lusford, would make it, but not in 2010.
It's a five point race. In 1994, just weeks before the election, Mario Cuomo was sometimes up ten points in the polls, but he still lost. Things can change in two weeks.