In his 2012 re-election bid, Obama wins all the Kerry 2004 states minus New Hampshire,Pennsylvania, and Michigan. Obama narrowly holds onto Oregon,Minnesota,Wisconsin,plus Iowa,Colorado,Nevada,and New Mexico. 232ev. To get to 270ev, Obama wins Michigan and Pennsylvania-narrowly plus either Virginia,Ohio,or North Carolina.
My prediction, which is on here somewhere (I can't find it) also uses Kerry's 2004 performance: Obama wins all of Kerry's states but six: Oregon, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Maine. Result: Obama gets 191 EV.