Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote

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Are KD doomed, or are they the sort of party that has Avery resilient core?

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?

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Ha, I meant to put this on IP; but I guess it can be used for the actual election.

Anyway, I'm pretty sure the S led faction will win (Nordics often break towards their government, and they're not polling that badly). The big thing will be whether MP (and KD?) get back in.

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I mean, the DPP has also split a rightist formation. Surprised Norwegian Progress hasn't also done so by now.

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SAP are currently pledging to abolish all religious schools, which I assume is mainly to target madrassas without looking racist.

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I think it's because most religious schools in Sweden are relatively new (a product of the charter movement), but the one Jewish school law is protected by the rules of sui generis.

Basically they're being effectively closed by a pincer. The government will close off public funding for them (as exists in some countries already) but there isn't really any alternative sources of funding because the Swedish government already bans fee-paying full time education for under 18s? I could be totally wrong there.

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there isn't really any alternative sources of funding because the Swedish government already bans fee-paying full time education for under 18s? I could be totally wrong there.

Now there's a good idea

Totally in agreement there, although it would cause a shockwave amongst the British middle class if it was ever applied here.

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https://www.thelocal.se/20180504/swedish-social-democrats-aim-to-halve-refugee-numbers

Social Democratic aim to halve refugee numbers.

I guess a resumption of the Green-Red coalition is out of the question?

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I wonder, given the collapse of Alliance; is SAP making overtures to Centre, the Liberals etc to see if they don't mind supporting a Social Democratic government? A SAP-Centre government with outside support from the Liberals and Greens could probably be viable numerically (although I don't know about politically).

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I'm going to say - Swedes can correct me if I'm wrong - that a minority government is far, far, far more likely than any cross-bloc coalition.

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I believe there's some kind of Islamic party that could get a decent 1% of the vote from diehards. There's also an animal rights party, and that sort of single issue party often gets a surprising amount of votes (from people who are like "I don't like politics much and politicians are all crooks, but animals are cute I guess").

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If SAP do badly and if the rural/urban trends seen a lot nowadays manifest themselves in Sweden, could we see the solid red north of Sweden start to turn blue or yellow?

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Swedish precedent would suggest the government makes up lost ground in the coming weeks, so I think they'll take a narrow first place. That said I wonder if this will ironically hurt the chance of a left government - if people tempted to lend a vote to MP to ensure they don't fall sub-threshold instead park their vote in SAP to stop SD declaring a symbolic "victory", we could see more wasted votes on the Left.

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Swedish precedent would suggest the government makes up lost ground in the coming weeks, so I think they'll take a narrow first place.

Why do you expect this election to follow the normal pattern?

Naive belief in precedent: I admit it's not much though.

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I think it's a mixture of both. It would be naive to deny the influence of immigration on such crimes, but I highly doubt there were only 500 sex attacks in the whole of Sweden in 1975.

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Do V aim to participate in government one day?

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This voting method is ridiculous. You basically have to take all the parties' ballots to the booth if you want to make sure no-one knows how you voted.

France has a similar system iirc.

So do The Gambia, but they use marbles, which is a cute idea.

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In response to the previous discussion, Sweden is probably moving towards a more social issue driven political divide. I expect elements of the centre-right will eventually end up with the centre-left while the rest of the right joins with the far-right. But we're not there yet.

It looks like everyone is going to manage to stay in parliament, Red-Green get small plurality and then we get really messy government formation.

Agreed.

If the Left parties were to move to a more conservative stance on immigration/integration and such issues (that the majority of the population would probably support), they could stop the growing support for the right.

If they do nothing, they're just blowing up the bubble, which at some point will pop.

I mean, S in Denmark also did that and the DPP are just as powerful as ever.

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Is there any chance that the Liberals or Centre will break from the Alliance to prop up a SAP government?

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Why is the Centre Party so anti-SD anyway? Are farmers in Sweden just really woke?

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Did the Feminist Initiative lose all its regional and municipal seats?

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The average Swedish voter will care about things that will be largely irrelevant to a foreign observer on atlas - concrete things like the conditions in the local hospital or whatever, rather than less tangible concepts that appear in overseas news.

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Can we change the title of this thread?