Presidential bellwether trend by least squared error

[Angel of Death]

1824:
01. Maryland
02. Illinois
03. New Jersey
04. Indiana
05. Mississippi
06. Ohio
07. Alabama
08. Pennsylvania
09. North Carolina
10. Virginia
11. Missouri
12. Connecticut
13. Massachusetts
14. Tennessee
15. Maine
16. Kentucky
17. Rhode Island
18. New Hampshire

1828:
01. Indiana
02. Kentucky
03. Louisiana
04. Ohio
05. New York
06. Maryland
07. New Jersey
08. New Hampshire
09. Pennsylvania
10. Illinois
11. Virginia
12. Missouri
13. Maine
14. North Carolina
15. Mississippi
16. Connecticut
17. Vermont
18. Rhode Island
19. Alabama
20. Massachusetts
21. Tennessee
22. Georgia

1832:
01. Maine
02. New Hampshire
03. Louisiana
04. New York
05. Ohio
06. New Jersey
07. Indiana
08. Maryland
09. Illinois
10. Delaware
11. Kentucky
12. Rhode Island
13. Virginia
14. Connecticut
15. North Carolina
16. Massachusetts
17. Vermont
18. Pennsylvania
19. Tennessee
20. Alabama
21. Georgia
21. Mississippi
21. Missouri

1836:
01. Maine
02. Michigan
03. Illinois
04. New York
05. Rhode Island
06. Pennsylvania
07. Connecticut
08. New Jersey
09. Ohio
10. Kentucky
11. Delaware
12. Maryland
13. Indiana
14. Vermont
15. New Hampshire
16. Arkansas
17. Missouri
18. Virginia
19. Alabama
20. North Carolina
21. Louisiana
22. Mississippi
23. Georgia
24. Tennessee
25. Massachusetts

1840:
01. Mississippi
02. Maryland
03. Michigan
04. New Jersey
05. Ohio
06. New York
07. Delaware
08. Connecticut
09. Tennessee
10. Georgia
11. Maine
12. Indiana
13. Pennsylvania
14. Virginia
15. Illinois
16. North Carolina
17. Massachusetts
18. Louisiana
19. Alabama
20. New Hampshire
21. Rhode Island
22. Arkansas
23. Missouri
24. Kentucky
25. Vermont

1844:
01. Indiana
02. New York
03. Pennsylvania
04. Ohio
05. Georgia
06. Louisiana
07. Tennessee
08. New Jersey
09. Delaware
10. Virginia
11. Connecticut
12. Maryland
13. North Carolina
14. Michigan
15. Kentucky
16. Illinois
17. Missouri
18. Maine
19. Mississippi
20. Massachusetts
21. Alabama
22. New Hampshire
23. Rhode Island
24. Vermont
25. Arkansas

1848:
01. Connecticut
02. Illinois
03. Ohio
04. Indiana
05. Maine
06. Pennsylvania
07. Iowa
08. New Jersey
09. Delaware
10. Maryland
11. Tennessee
12. Georgia
13. Louisiana
14. Michigan
15. North Carolina
16. Alabama
17. Mississippi
18. Virginia
19. Florida
20. Kentucky
21. Arkansas
22. Missouri
23. Rhode Island
24. Wisconsin
25. New Hampshire
26. New York
27. Massachusetts
28. Vermont
29. Texas

1852:
01. Iowa
02. New York
03. Rhode Island
04. Indiana
05. Connecticut
06. Illinois
07. Pennsylvania
08. Michigan
09. Ohio
10. New Jersey
11. California
12. Maryland
13. Maine
14. Louisiana
15. Virginia
16. Delaware
17. Missouri
18. North Carolina
19. Tennessee
20. Kentucky
21. Florida
22. Mississippi
23. Wisconsin
24. Arkansas
25. Alabama
26. New Hampshire
27. Georgia
28. Massachusetts
29. Vermont
30. Texas

1856:
01. New Jersey
02. Pennsylvania
03. Illinois
04. Indiana
05. New York
06. California
07. Iowa
08. Ohio
09. Connecticut
10. New Hampshire
11. Rhode Island
12. Wisconsin
13. Michigan
14. Maine
15. Delaware
16. Massachusetts
17. Alabama
18. Virginia
19. Mississippi
20. Texas
21. Georgia
22. Florida
23. North Carolina
24. Arkansas
25. Missouri
26. Kentucky
27. Tennessee
28. Louisiana
29. Maryland
30. Vermont

1860:
01. California
02. Connecticut
03. Oregon
04. Indiana
05. Ohio
06. New Hampshire
07. Maine
08. Massachusetts
09. Iowa
10. Illinois
11. Wisconsin
12. Michigan
13. New York
14. Minnesota
15. Rhode Island
16. New Jersey
17. Missouri
18. Pennsylvania
19. Delaware
20. Vermont
21. Kentucky
22. Louisiana
23. Alabama
24. Virginia
25. Georgia
26. Maryland
27. Arkansas
28. Tennessee
29. Mississippi
30. North Carolina
31. Florida
32. Texas

1864:
01. Maryland
02. Illinois
03. Wisconsin
04. Oregon
05. Ohio
06. Michigan
07. Indiana
08. New Hampshire
09. Pennsylvania
10. California
11. Connecticut
12. Minnesota
13. Maine
14. New York
15. Nevada
16. Delaware
17. Rhode Island
18. New Jersey
19. Iowa
20. West Virginia
21. Missouri
22. Massachusetts
23. Vermont
24. Kentucky
25. Kansas

1868:
01. Pennsylvania
02. North Carolina
03. Arkansas
04. Connecticut
05. Indiana
06. Ohio
07. Alabama
08. California
09. New Hampshire
10. Nevada
11. Illinois
12. Oregon
13. New York
14. New Jersey
15. Wisconsin
16. Missouri
17. Michigan
18. South Carolina
19. West Virginia
20. Minnesota
21. Iowa
22. Maine
23. Nebraska
24. Delaware
25. Rhode Island
26. Tennessee
27. Kansas
28. Georgia
29. Massachusetts
30. Maryland
31. Louisiana
32. Vermont
33. Kentucky

1872:
01. Louisiana
02. Illinois
03. California
04. Wisconsin
05. New Jersey
06. Nevada
07. North Carolina
08. New Hampshire
09. Ohio
10. Florida
11. New York
12. Indiana
13. Alabama
14. Connecticut
15. West Virginia
16. Arkansas
17. Delaware
18. Oregon
19. Minnesota
20. Virginia
21. Maryland
22. Pennsylvania
23. Mississippi
24. Michigan
25. Tennessee
26. Iowa
27. Kentucky
28. Georgia
29. Kansas
30. Missouri
31. Maine
32. Massachusetts
33. Texas
34. Nebraska
35. Rhode Island
36. South Carolina
37. Vermont

1876:
01. Connecticut
02. New York
03. New Jersey
04. Indiana
05. South Carolina
06. Ohio
07. North Carolina
08. California
09. Florida
10. Pennsylvania
11. Wisconsin
12. Louisiana
13. Oregon
14. Illinois
15. New Hampshire
16. Delaware
17. Nevada
18. Maryland
19. Michigan
20. West Virginia
21. Missouri
22. Virginia
23. Tennessee
24. Alabama
25. Maine
26. Arkansas
27. Massachusetts
28. Kentucky
29. Rhode Island
30. Minnesota
31. Iowa
32. Nebraska
33. Mississippi
34. Kansas
35. Texas
36. Vermont
37. Georgia

1880:
01. Indiana
02. California
03. New Jersey
04. New York
05. Pennsylvania
06. Connecticut
07. Oregon
08. Colorado
09. Maine
10. Ohio
11. North Carolina
12. Delaware
13. New Hampshire
14. Illinois
15. Nevada
16. Tennessee
17. Florida
18. Maryland
19. Wisconsin
20. West Virginia
21. Kentucky
22. Missouri
23. Arkansas
24. Michigan
25. Massachusetts
26. Virginia
27. Alabama
28. Louisiana
29. Rhode Island
30. Iowa
31. Minnesota
32. Nebraska
33. Georgia
34. South Carolina
35. Kansas
36. Mississippi
37. Vermont
38. Texas

1884:
01. Connecticut
02. New York
03. Indiana
04. New Jersey
05. Michigan
06. West Virginia
07. Virginia
08. Tennessee
09. Illinois
10. Ohio
11. Oregon
12. Wisconsin
13. New Hampshire
14. Maryland
15. Iowa
16. Florida
17. North Carolina
18. California
19. Missouri
20. Pennsylvania
21. Kentucky
22. Massachusetts
23. Delaware
24. Colorado
25. Nevada
26. Louisiana
27. Maine
28. Arkansas
29. Nebraska
30. Rhode Island
31. Alabama
32. Minnesota
33. Kansas
34. Mississippi
35. Georgia
36. Vermont
37. Texas
38. South Carolina

1888:
01. Connecticut
02. Indiana
03. New Jersey
04. New York
05. Maryland
06. West Virginia
07. Ohio
08. California
09. New Hampshire
10. Virginia
11. Illinois
12. Missouri
13. North Carolina
14. Tennessee
15. Michigan
16. Kentucky
17. Wisconsin
18. Pennsylvania
19. Iowa
20. Massachusetts
21. Delaware
22. Rhode Island
23. Oregon
24. Colorado
25. Nebraska
26. Minnesota
27. Arkansas
28. Nevada
29. Maine
30. Florida
31. Kansas
32. Alabama
33. Texas
34. Georgia
35. Vermont
36. Louisiana
37. Mississippi
38. South Carolina

1892:
01. California
02. Missouri
03. Indiana
04. Kentucky
05. Wisconsin
06. Illinois
07. Michigan
08. Tennessee
09. Iowa
10. West Virginia
11. New York
12. Ohio
13. Minnesota
14. Connecticut
15. New Jersey
16. Montana
17. North Carolina
18. Delaware
19. Maryland
20. Rhode Island
21. Pennsylvania
22. New Hampshire
23. Massachusetts
24. Virginia
25. Maine
26. Arkansas
27. Washington
28. Georgia
29. Texas
30. Vermont
31. Louisiana
32. Oregon
33. South Carolina
34. South Dakota
35. Nebraska
36. Alabama
37. Mississippi
38. Florida
39. Wyoming
40. North Dakota
41. Kansas
42. Idaho
43. Colorado
44. Nevada

1896:
01. Ohio
02. West Virginia
03. Indiana
04. Oregon
05. California
06. Kentucky
07. South Dakota
08. Delaware
09. Michigan
10. North Dakota
11. Kansas
12. Wyoming
13. Iowa
14. Illinois
15. Maryland
16. Nebraska
17. Tennessee
18. North Carolina
19. Virginia
20. Minnesota
21. Missouri
22. New York
23. Wisconsin
24. New Jersey
25. Washington
26. Pennsylvania
27. Georgia
28. Connecticut
29. Maine
30. Rhode Island
31. New Hampshire
32. Massachusetts
33. Texas
34. Alabama
35. Florida
36. Arkansas
37. Louisiana
38. Vermont
39. Idaho
40. Montana
41. Nevada
42. Utah
43. Colorado
44. South Carolina
45. Mississippi

1900:
01. Ohio
02. Maryland
03. Kansas
04. Indiana
05. Illinois
06. Nebraska
07. Delaware
08. New York
09. West Virginia
10. Utah
11. Washington
12. California
13. Kentucky
14. New Jersey
15. South Dakota
16. North Dakota
17. Connecticut
18. Idaho
19. Oregon
20. Missouri
21. Wyoming
22. Iowa
23. Michigan
24. Massachusetts
25. Tennessee
26. North Carolina
27. New Hampshire
28. Virginia
29. Wisconsin
30. Minnesota
31. Pennsylvania
32. Rhode Island
33. Colorado
34. Maine
35. Montana
36. Nevada
37. Alabama
38. Arkansas
39. Texas
40. Georgia
41. Vermont
42. Florida
43. Louisiana
44. Mississippi
45. South Carolina

1904:
01. New Jersey
02. Massachusetts
03. Connecticut
04. Indiana
05. Colorado
06. New Hampshire
07. Rhode Island
08. Ohio
09. West Virginia
10. New York
11. Nevada
12. Montana
13. Utah
14. Delaware
15. Illinois
16. Iowa
17. Missouri
18. Wisconsin
19. California
20. Wyoming
21. Maryland
22. Kansas
23. Maine
24. Nebraska
25. Kentucky
26. Pennsylvania
27. Idaho
28. Michigan
29. Tennessee
30. South Dakota
31. Oregon
32. Washington
33. Arkansas
34. North Dakota
35. Minnesota
36. North Carolina
37. Vermont
38. Virginia
39. Georgia
40. Florida
41. Texas
42. Alabama
43. Louisiana
44. Mississippi
45. South Carolina

1908:
01. Kansas
02. Ohio
03. West Virginia
04. New York
05. Delaware
06. Iowa
07. Illinois
08. Indiana
09. Wyoming
10. Missouri
11. Utah
12. Maryland
13. New Jersey
14. Colorado
15. Montana
16. Idaho
17. Nebraska
18. Wisconsin
19. Kentucky
20. New Hampshire
21. Nevada
22. Pennsylvania
23. Connecticut
24. Oregon
25. South Dakota
26. Oklahoma
27. Massachusetts
28. Tennessee
29. California
30. North Dakota
31. Minnesota
32. Rhode Island
33. North Carolina
34. Washington
35. Michigan
36. Maine
37. Arkansas
38. Virginia
39. Georgia
40. Vermont
41. Florida
42. Alabama
43. Texas
44. Louisiana
45. Mississippi
46. South Carolina

[Angel of Death]

1912:
01. Colorado
02. West Virginia
03. Indiana
04. Nebraska
05. New York
06. Kansas
07. Ohio
08. New Jersey
09. Iowa
10. Maryland
11. Oregon
12. North Dakota
13. Illinois
14. Kentucky
15. Montana
16. Maine
17. Massachusetts
18. Nevada
19. Arizona
20. Missouri
21. Pennsylvania
22. Tennessee
23. Wyoming
24. Idaho
25. Rhode Island
26. Delaware
27. Minnesota
28. Wisconsin
29. Connecticut
30. New Mexico
31. New Hampshire
32. Arkansas
33. Washington
34. Utah
35. Michigan
36. North Carolina
37. Vermont
38. California
39. Virginia
40. Oklahoma
41. South Dakota
42. Alabama
43. Florida
44. Texas
45. Georgia
46. Louisiana
47. Mississippi
48. South Carolina

1916:
01. New Mexico
02. Missouri
03. North Dakota
04. Kansas
05. California
06. Indiana
07. Ohio
08. New Hampshire
09. West Virginia
10. Kentucky
11. Minnesota
12. Washington
13. Oregon
14. Maryland
15. Connecticut
16. Delaware
17. South Dakota
18. Massachusetts
19. Maine
20. Rhode Island
21. Idaho
22. Wyoming
23. New York
24. Wisconsin
25. Michigan
26. Nebraska
27. Tennessee
28. Illinois
29. North Carolina
30. New Jersey
31. Iowa
32. Montana
33. Pennsylvania
34. Nevada
35. Utah
36. Arizona
37. Colorado
38. Oklahoma
39. Vermont
40. Virginia
41. Arkansas
42. Florida
43. Alabama
44. Texas
45. Georgia
46. Louisiana
47. Mississippi
48. South Carolina

1920:
01. Oregon
02. Colorado
03. Connecticut
04. Rhode Island
05. Montana
06. Kansas
07. Ohio
08. Nevada
09. Nebraska
10. Wyoming
11. New Hampshire
12. Idaho
13. Utah
14. Indiana
15. Pennsylvania
16. New York
17. New Jersey
18. Delaware
19. Maryland
20. Maine
21. Massachusetts
22. West Virginia
23. Missouri
24. Illinois
25. Arizona
26. California
27. New Mexico
28. Washington
29. Iowa
30. Oklahoma
31. South Dakota
32. Tennessee
33. Michigan
34. Minnesota
35. Vermont
36. Kentucky
37. Wisconsin
38. North Dakota
39. North Carolina
40. Arkansas
41. Virginia
42. Florida
43. Alabama
44. Texas
45. Louisiana
46. Georgia
47. Mississippi
48. South Carolina

1924:
01. New York
02. Utah
03. Ohio
04. Illinois
05. Colorado
06. Kansas
07. Nebraska
08. Oregon
09. Connecticut
10. Massachusetts
11. New Jersey
12. New Hampshire
13. Delaware
14. Indiana
15. Pennsylvania
16. Maryland
17. Arizona
18. Rhode Island
19. Iowa
20. New Mexico
21. Missouri
22. West Virginia
23. Wyoming
24. Kentucky
25. Maine
26. Oklahoma
27. Nevada
28. Idaho
29. South Dakota
30. Montana
31. California
32. Washington
33. Michigan
34. Tennessee
35. Vermont
36. Minnesota
37. North Dakota
38. North Carolina
39. Florida
40. Arkansas
41. Virginia
42. Wisconsin
43. Alabama
44. Texas
45. Georgia
46. Louisiana
47. Mississippi
48. South Carolina

1928:
01. West Virginia
02. Montana
03. Minnesota
04. New Hampshire
05. New Mexico
06. Kentucky
07. Florida
08. Arizona
09. New Jersey
10. Indiana
11. Maryland
12. Illinois
13. South Dakota
14. Nevada
15. Missouri
16. Iowa
17. North Dakota
18. North Carolina
19. Wisconsin
20. Connecticut
21. Virginia
22. Nebraska
23. Utah
24. Tennessee
25. Oklahoma
26. Wyoming
27. Idaho
28. Oregon
29. Ohio
30. Delaware
31. California
32. Colorado
33. Texas
34. Pennsylvania
35. New York
36. Vermont
37. Rhode Island
38. Washington
39. Massachusetts
40. Maine
41. Alabama
42. Michigan
43. Kansas
44. Georgia
45. Arkansas
46. Louisiana
47. Mississippi
48. South Carolina

1932:
01. Iowa
02. Utah
03. Wyoming
04. Kentucky
05. California
06. Idaho
07. Colorado
08. Illinois
09. Oregon
10. New York
11. Montana
12. Minnesota
13. Indiana
14. Rhode Island
15. Maryland
16. Washington
17. West Virginia
18. Kansas
19. New Mexico
20. Michigan
21. Nebraska
22. Missouri
23. South Dakota
24. Massachusetts
25. Ohio
26. Wisconsin
27. New Jersey
28. Tennessee
29. Arizona
30. Connecticut
31. New Hampshire
32. Delaware
33. Virginia
34. Nevada
35. North Carolina
36. Pennsylvania
37. North Dakota
38. Oklahoma
39. Maine
40. Florida
41. Vermont
42. Alabama
43. Arkansas
44. Texas
45. Georgia
46. Louisiana
47. Mississippi
48. South Carolina

1936:
01. Colorado
02. Wyoming
03. Missouri
04. Maryland
05. New Mexico
06. West Virginia
07. Ohio
08. New York
09. New Jersey
10. Idaho
11. Kentucky
12. Illinois
13. Michigan
14. Nebraska
15. Minnesota
16. Pennsylvania
17. Connecticut
18. Indiana
19. Wisconsin
20. Oklahoma
21. Oregon
22. California
23. Rhode Island
24. Washington
25. Iowa
26. South Dakota
27. Tennessee
28. North Dakota
29. Delaware
30. Utah
31. Massachusetts
32. Kansas
33. Virginia
34. Montana
35. Arizona
36. Nevada
37. New Hampshire
38. North Carolina
39. Florida
40. Vermont
41. Maine
42. Arkansas
43. Alabama
44. Georgia
45. Texas
46. Louisiana
47. Mississippi
48. South Carolina

1940:
01. Delaware
02. Idaho
03. Oregon
04. Connecticut
05. Pennsylvania
06. Massachusetts
07. New Mexico
08. New Hampshire
09. Rhode Island
10. Wyoming
11. West Virginia
12. Missouri
13. Kentucky
14. Oklahoma
15. Ohio
16. Minnesota
17. California
18. New Jersey
19. New York
20. Maryland
21. Illinois
22. Washington
23. Wisconsin
24. Montana
25. Nevada
26. Michigan
27. Indiana
28. Maine
29. Colorado
30. Iowa
31. Utah
32. Arizona
33. Vermont
34. North Dakota
35. Nebraska
36. Kansas
37. South Dakota
38. Tennessee
39. Virginia
40. Florida
41. North Carolina
42. Arkansas
43. Texas
44. Georgia
45. Alabama
46. Louisiana
47. South Carolina
48. Mississippi

1944:
01. New Mexico
02. Delaware
03. Massachusetts
04. Kentucky
05. Montana
06. Nevada
07. Minnesota
08. Connecticut
09. West Virginia
10. New York
11. Oregon
12. New Hampshire
13. Maryland
14. Oklahoma
15. Idaho
16. Illinois
17. Missouri
18. Pennsylvania
19. California
20. New Jersey
21. Michigan
22. Washington
23. Ohio
24. Wisconsin
25. Rhode Island
26. Wyoming
27. Arizona
28. Iowa
29. Maine
30. Indiana
31. Utah
32. Tennessee
33. Colorado
34. North Dakota
35. Virginia
36. Vermont
37. South Dakota
38. Nebraska
39. North Carolina
40. Kansas
41. Arkansas
42. Florida
43. Texas
44. Louisiana
45. Alabama
46. Georgia
47. South Carolina
48. Mississippi

1948:
01. Wisconsin
02. Idaho
03. Nevada
04. Iowa
05. Colorado
06. Wyoming
07. California
08. Washington
09. Montana
10. Ohio
11. Arizona
12. Maryland
13. Michigan
14. Utah
15. Illinois
16. Connecticut
17. Indiana
18. Delaware
19. Massachusetts
20. Oregon
21. New Jersey
22. Pennsylvania
23. South Dakota
24. New Mexico
25. New York
26. New Hampshire
27. Kentucky
28. West Virginia
29. Virginia
30. Rhode Island
31. Minnesota
32. North Dakota
33. Missouri
34. Kansas
35. Nebraska
36. Tennessee
37. Maine
38. Oklahoma
39. North Carolina
40. Florida
41. Vermont
42. Texas
43. Arkansas
44. Georgia
45. Louisiana
46. South Carolina
47. Alabama
48. Mississippi

1952:
01. New Mexico
02. Minnesota
03. Michigan
04. Maryland
05. Connecticut
06. Florida
07. Illinois
08. New York
09. Washington
10. Oklahoma
11. Massachusetts
12. Virginia
13. Ohio
14. California
15. New Jersey
16. Texas
17. Pennsylvania
18. Arizona
19. Indiana
20. Delaware
21. Utah
22. Montana
23. Rhode Island
24. Missouri
25. Colorado
26. Tennessee
27. Oregon
28. Kentucky
29. New Hampshire
30. Wisconsin
31. Nevada
32. South Carolina
33. West Virginia
34. Wyoming
35. Louisiana
36. Iowa
37. North Carolina
38. Idaho
39. Maine
40. Arkansas
41. Kansas
42. Nebraska
43. South Dakota
44. Mississippi
45. North Dakota
46. Vermont
47. Alabama
48. Georgia

1956:
01. New Mexico
02. Nevada
03. Florida
04. Rhode Island
05. Montana
06. South Dakota
07. Pennsylvania
08. Iowa
09. Massachusetts
10. Illinois
11. Michigan
12. Texas
13. Colorado
14. California
15. Maryland
16. Wyoming
17. Indiana
18. Delaware
19. Oregon
20. Oklahoma
21. Virginia
22. Kentucky
23. Arizona
24. Louisiana
25. Ohio
26. Washington
27. Idaho
28. New York
29. West Virginia
30. Minnesota
31. North Dakota
32. Wisconsin
33. Connecticut
34. Utah
35. Tennessee
36. New Jersey
37. Missouri
38. Nebraska
39. Kansas
40. North Carolina
41. New Hampshire
42. Arkansas
43. Maine
44. Vermont
45. Alabama
46. South Carolina
47. Georgia
48. Mississippi

1960:
01. Illinois
02. New Mexico
03. New Jersey
04. Hawaii
05. California
06. Missouri
07. Minnesota
08. Delaware
09. Texas
10. Michigan
11. Alaska
12. Pennsylvania
13. Nevada
14. South Carolina
15. Washington
16. Montana
17. Florida
18. Wisconsin
19. North Carolina
20. New York
21. West Virginia
22. Oregon
23. Virginia
24. Ohio
25. New Hampshire
26. Maryland
27. Tennessee
28. Connecticut
29. Kentucky
30. Idaho
31. Arkansas
32. Utah
33. Colorado
34. Wyoming
35. Indiana
36. North Dakota
37. Arizona
38. Iowa
39. Alabama
40. Maine
41. South Dakota
42. Vermont
43. Oklahoma
44. Massachusetts
45. Kansas
46. Nebraska
47. Georgia
48. Rhode Island
49. Louisiana
50. Mississippi

1964:
01. Delaware
02. Colorado
03. Iowa
04. Wisconsin
05. Washington
06. Ohio
07. New Mexico
08. Illinois
09. Montana
10. Texas
11. California
12. New Hampshire
13. Oregon
14. Minnesota
15. Nevada
16. Missouri
17. Kentucky
18. North Dakota
19. Pennsylvania
20. Maryland
21. New Jersey
22. Alaska
23. Wyoming
24. Arkansas
25. Vermont
26. Indiana
27. North Carolina
28. Michigan
29. Oklahoma
30. South Dakota
31. Tennessee
32. Utah
33. Connecticut
34. West Virginia
35. Kansas
36. New York
37. Maine
38. Virginia
39. Nebraska
40. Florida
41. Idaho
42. Arizona
43. Massachusetts
44. Georgia
45. Hawaii
46. Louisiana
47. Rhode Island
48. South Carolina
49. D. C.
50. Alabama
51. Mississippi

1968:
01. Maryland
02. Delaware
03. Alaska
04. Ohio
05. Missouri
06. Nevada
07. New Jersey
08. Illinois
09. Texas
10. Michigan
11. Kentucky
12. Pennsylvania
13. Wisconsin
14. Washington
15. West Virginia
16. California
17. Indiana
18. Colorado
19. Montana
20. Oregon
21. Connecticut
22. New Mexico
23. New York
24. Iowa
25. New Hampshire
26. South Dakota
27. Oklahoma
28. Vermont
29. Arizona
30. Kansas
31. Virginia
32. Minnesota
33. Wyoming
34. North Dakota
35. Utah
36. Maine
37. Idaho
38. Florida
39. Nebraska
40. Hawaii
41. North Carolina
42. South Carolina
43. Massachusetts
44. Tennessee
45. Rhode Island
46. Arkansas
47. Georgia
48. Louisiana
49. D. C.
50. Mississippi
51. Alabama

[Angel of Death]

1972:
01. Maryland
02. New Mexico
03. New Jersey
04. Ohio
05. Maine
06. Missouri
07. Hawaii
08. Delaware
09. North Dakota
10. Pennsylvania
11. Vermont
12. Montana
13. West Virginia
14. Nevada
15. Connecticut
16. Illinois
17. Colorado
18. Kentucky
19. Alaska
20. Washington
21. New Hampshire
22. New York
23. Iowa
24. Michigan
25. Indiana
26. California
27. Texas
28. Arizona
29. Oregon
30. Wisconsin
31. Louisiana
32. Virginia
33. South Dakota
34. Tennessee
35. Arkansas
36. Kansas
37. Wyoming
38. Idaho
39. Rhode Island
40. North Carolina
41. Minnesota
42. Nebraska
43. Utah
44. South Carolina
45. Florida
46. Alabama
47. Oklahoma
48. Georgia
49. Massachusetts
50. Mississippi
51. D. C.

1976:
01. Pennsylvania
02. Hawaii
03. Wisconsin
04. Mississippi
05. Texas
06. Missouri
07. Ohio
08. New York
09. Iowa
10. Maine
11. Florida
12. Oklahoma
13. Delaware
14. Oregon
15. Virginia
16. South Dakota
17. Louisiana
18. California
19. Illinois
20. New Jersey
21. Maryland
22. New Mexico
23. Kentucky
24. Washington
25. Nevada
26. Connecticut
27. Michigan
28. North Dakota
29. North Carolina
30. Rhode Island
31. Montana
32. Kansas
33. Indiana
34. Minnesota
35. Tennessee
36. South Carolina
37. Alabama
38. Vermont
39. New Hampshire
40. Colorado
41. Massachusetts
42. West Virginia
43. Arizona
44. Wyoming
45. Nebraska
46. Alaska
47. Idaho
48. Arkansas
49. Utah
50. Georgia
51. D. C.

1980:
01. Ohio
02. Illinois
03. Pennsylvania
04. Michigan
05. Virginia
06. New Jersey
07. Iowa
08. Wisconsin
09. Missouri
10. Oregon
11. New York
12. Delaware
13. Washington
14. Florida
15. California
16. New Mexico
17. Texas
18. Maine
19. Indiana
20. Connecticut
21. Louisiana
22. North Carolina
23. Kentucky
24. Arkansas
25. Alabama
26. South Carolina
27. Tennessee
28. Mississippi
29. Maryland
30. Hawaii
31. Minnesota
32. Kansas
33. West Virginia
34. Montana
35. Vermont
36. Colorado
37. Oklahoma
38. Massachusetts
39. South Dakota
40. Alaska
41. New Hampshire
42. Arizona
43. Rhode Island
44. Wyoming
45. Georgia
46. Nevada
47. North Dakota
48. Nebraska
49. Idaho
50. Utah
51. D. C.

1984:
01. Ohio
02. Michigan
03. Vermont
04. Delaware
05. Tennessee
06. Missouri
07. California
08. Georgia
09. New Mexico
10. Kentucky
11. New Jersey
12. Connecticut
13. Maine
14. Arkansas
15. Alabama
16. Montana
17. Louisiana
18. Washington
19. Illinois
20. Indiana
21. North Carolina
22. Oregon
23. Mississippi
24. Hawaii
25. Virginia
26. West Virginia
27. South Dakota
28. Wisconsin
29. Texas
30. South Carolina
31. Colorado
32. New York
33. Iowa
34. Pennsylvania
35. Florida
36. Maryland
37. North Dakota
38. Rhode Island
39. Massachusetts
40. Kansas
41. Arizona
42. Nevada
43. Minnesota
44. Alaska
45. New Hampshire
46. Oklahoma
47. Nebraska
48. Wyoming
49. Idaho
50. Utah
51. D. C.

1988:
01. Michigan
02. Colorado
03. South Dakota
04. Montana
05. Louisiana
06. Connecticut
07. New Mexico
08. Ohio
09. Maine
10. Missouri
11. Kentucky
12. California
13. Vermont
14. Delaware
15. Maryland
16. Texas
17. North Dakota
18. Pennsylvania
19. Kansas
20. Illinois
21. New Jersey
22. Arkansas
23. North Carolina
24. Tennessee
25. Oklahoma
26. Washington
27. Wisconsin
28. Alabama
29. New York
30. Indiana
31. Oregon
32. West Virginia
33. Georgia
34. Virginia
35. Mississippi
36. Nebraska
37. Nevada
38. Arizona
39. Florida
40. Minnesota
41. Wyoming
42. Massachusetts
43. Alaska
44. South Carolina
45. Hawaii
46. Iowa
47. Idaho
48. New Hampshire
49. Rhode Island
50. Utah
51. D. C.

1992:
01. Iowa
02. Michigan
03. Pennsylvania
04. Delaware
05. Connecticut
06. Wisconsin
07. Ohio
08. New Mexico
09. New Jersey
10. Missouri
11. Florida
12. Colorado
13. New Hampshire
14. California
15. West Virginia
16. Kentucky
17. Illinois
18. Hawaii
19. Oregon
20. Washington
21. South Dakota
22. Texas
23. Minnesota
24. Georgia
25. North Carolina
26. Arizona
27. New York
28. Indiana
29. Louisiana
30. Maryland
31. Vermont
32. Montana
33. Virginia
34. Nevada
35. Rhode Island
36. Massachusetts
37. Tennessee
38. Oklahoma
39. Wyoming
40. Kansas
41. Alabama
42. South Carolina
43. Arkansas
44. North Dakota
45. Maine
46. Alaska
47. Mississippi
48. Nebraska
49. Idaho
50. Utah
51. D. C.

1996:
01. Iowa
02. Pennsylvania
03. New Hampshire
04. Florida
05. Missouri
06. Oregon
07. New Mexico
08. Ohio
09. Wisconsin
10. Louisiana
11. Michigan
12. California
13. Washington
14. Arizona
15. Delaware
16. Kentucky
17. West Virginia
18. Tennessee
19. Nevada
20. Maryland
21. Arkansas
22. Illinois
23. New Jersey
24. Minnesota
25. Connecticut
26. Colorado
27. Georgia
28. Virginia
29. South Dakota
30. North Carolina
31. Texas
32. Montana
33. Indiana
34. Mississippi
35. South Carolina
36. Vermont
37. Alabama
38. North Dakota
39. Maine
40. Oklahoma
41. Hawaii
42. New York
43. Wyoming
44. Massachusetts
45. Rhode Island
46. Kansas
47. Alaska
48. Nebraska
49. Idaho
50. Utah
51. D. C.

2000:
01. Iowa
02. New Mexico
03. Wisconsin
04. Florida
05. New Hampshire
06. Pennsylvania
07. Ohio
08. Nevada
09. Oregon
10. Missouri
11. Minnesota
12. Michigan
13. Tennessee
14. Washington
15. Arkansas
16. Arizona
17. Maine
18. West Virginia
19. Louisiana
20. Virginia
21. Colorado
22. California
23. Illinois
24. Vermont
25. Delaware
26. Georgia
27. North Carolina
28. New Jersey
29. Alabama
30. Kentucky
31. Maryland
32. Indiana
33. South Carolina
34. Connecticut
35. Mississippi
36. Hawaii
37. Kansas
38. Texas
39. Oklahoma
40. South Dakota
41. New York
42. Montana
43. Massachusetts
44. North Dakota
45. Rhode Island
46. Nebraska
47. Alaska
48. Idaho
49. Wyoming
50. Utah
51. D. C.

2004:
01. Ohio
02. Nevada
03. New Mexico
04. Iowa
05. Colorado
06. Florida
07. Wisconsin
08. New Hampshire
09. Missouri
10. Pennsylvania
11. Virginia
12. Michigan
13. Minnesota
14. Oregon
15. Arkansas
16. Arizona
17. New Jersey
18. Washington
19. North Carolina
20. Delaware
21. West Virginia
22. Hawaii
23. Maine
24. Tennessee
25. Louisiana
26. California
27. Illinois
28. Connecticut
29. Georgia
30. South Carolina
31. Maryland
32. Mississippi
33. Kentucky
34. Montana
35. Indiana
36. South Dakota
37. Texas
38. New York
39. Vermont
40. Kansas
41. Alabama
42. Alaska
43. Rhode Island
44. North Dakota
45. Massachusetts
46. Oklahoma
47. Nebraska
48. Idaho
49. Wyoming
50. Utah
51. D. C.

2008:
01. Virginia
02. Colorado
03. Iowa
04. New Hampshire
05. Ohio
06. Minnesota
07. Pennsylvania
08. Florida
09. Nevada
10. Indiana
11. Wisconsin
12. North Carolina
13. Missouri
14. New Mexico
15. New Jersey
16. Oregon
17. Michigan
18. Montana
19. Washington
20. Maine
21. Georgia
22. Connecticut
23. South Dakota
24. Arizona
25. North Dakota
26. South Carolina
27. California
28. Delaware
29. Illinois
30. Maryland
31. Massachusetts
32. Texas
33. New York
34. West Virginia
35. Mississippi
36. Rhode Island
37. Kansas
38. Nebraska
39. Tennessee
40. Kentucky
41. Louisiana
42. Arkansas
43. Alaska
44. Alabama
45. Vermont
46. Idaho
47. Utah
48. Hawaii
49. Oklahoma
50. Wyoming
51. D. C.

[Fritz]

Explain, please, what is determined on these lists?

[Niemeyerite]

Explain, please, what is determined on these lists?

Virginia gave almost the same percentage of vote to Obama and McCain in 2008 that the USA as a whole.
The same happened with Kerry/Bush in Ohio (2004)

Etc.

[Angel of Death]

For each Presidential election for which there are popular results, each state with a popular election is ranked by how much their vote matched the nation as a whole, as determined by the sum of the squares of the differences between each significant candidate's vote portion in that state and that in the whole country.

[ShamDam]

Not much Maine up in there.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

wow, I would never have guessed CT was a relative bellwether in 1860. but it's the one state other than Ca where Lincoln won, but where Douglas and Breckenridge also did well. As a Southern Democrat secessionist, Breckenridge's support in CT, PA, OR and CA is fascinating.

[Nichlemn]

Top bellwethers each year, for easy viewing:

1824 - Maryland
1828 - Indiana
1832 - Maine
1836 - Maine
1840 - Mississippi
1844 - Indiana
1848 - Connecticut
1852 - Iowa
1856 - New Jersey
1860 - California
1864 - Maryland
1868 - Pennsylvania
1872 - Louisiana
1876 - Connecticut
1880 - Indiana
1884 - Connecticut
1888 - Connecticut
1892 - California
1896 - Ohio
1900 - Ohio
1904 - New Jersey
1908 - Kansas
1912 - Colorado
1916 - New Mexico
1920 - Oregon
1924 - New York
1928 - West Virginia
1932 - Iowa
1936 - Colorado
1940 - Delaware
1944 - New Mexico
1948 - Wisconsin
1952 - New Mexico
1956 - New Mexico
1960 - Illinois
1964 - Delaware
1968 - Maryland
1972 - Maryland
1976 - Pennsylvania
1980 - Ohio
1984 - Ohio
1988 - Michigan
1992 - Iowa
1996 - Iowa
2000 - Iowa
2004 - Ohio
2008 - Virginia

Some interesting notes:

- Ohio and Iowa are tied for the most common #1 bellwether spot, at 5 apiece.
- Missouri has never been the #1 bellwether. It has been the #2 a couple of times, but otherwise has been almost always 5th to 20th.
- Although Iowa was the #1 bellwether for three elections in a row from 1992-2000, a record, it was 46th (!) in 1988.
- In 2008, Virginia was the first state in the former Confederacy to be the #1 bellwether since Louisiana in 1872. Mississippi in 1840 was the only other.
-  Florida was only #4 in 2000.
- DC has been #51 since 1968. Utah was #50 from 1980 to 2004.
- From 1900 to 1936, South Carolina was the #1 anti-bellwether and Mississippi #2. In the election preceeding and the two elections afterwards, the order was reversed.
- Alabama has the lowest peak of any state, at #7 (in 1824 and 1868).

[Angel of Death]

2012:
01. Virginia
02. Ohio
03. Pennsylvania
04. Colorado
05. New Hampshire
06. Iowa
07. Nevada
08. Florida
09. Wisconsin
10. Minnesota
11. Michigan
12. North Carolina
13. New Mexico
14. Oregon
15. Washington
16. Maine
17. Georgia
18. Arizona
19. Illinois
20. Missouri
21. Connecticut
22. New Jersey
23. Indiana
24. South Carolina
25. Delaware
26. Mississippi
27. Montana
28. Alaska
29. California
30. Massachusetts
31. Texas
32. Louisiana
33. South Dakota
34. Maryland
35. North Dakota
36. Rhode Island
37. Tennessee
38. New York
39. Kansas
40. Nebraska
41. Alabama
42. Kentucky
43. Arkansas
44. West Virginia
45. Vermont
46. Idaho
47. Oklahoma
48. Hawaii
49. Wyoming
50. Utah
51. D. C.