Ontario 2018 election

[PeteB]

I decided to subscribe.

The NDP is cleaning up in Toronto Centre and is surprisingly close to the Liberals in St. Paul's.

Scarborough SW is a bit discouraging from a progressive point of view and suggests that the PCs will win most of Scarborough.

St. Catharines is also encouraging for the NDP.

Sarnia-Lambton suggests that the NDP can't count on "owning" the rust belt vote and that Ford does have a populist appeal there.

The Ottawa numbers are really surprising.

What is the current NDP margin in Ottawa Centre?

they haven't polled there yet, but based on the swings in OWN and Ottawa South on the MainStreet polls, the NDP would have at least a 5 point lead in Ottawa Centre. (and that's not accounting for the fact that OC has far more promiscuous progressives than anywhere else in the city).

I don't dispute that. But without an actual poll, I still think that Naqvi's local stature and fighting spirit may win the day. We'll see.

I do agree though that the math in the East does not add up. If the NDP is up at 30% there, they should be winning at least 3-5 seats. The only seat I currently see them winning for sure though is Kingston. Either they will finish a close third in a bunch of races, or there is some movement that will surprise the pundits.

[ON Progressive]

Abacus has NDP up 4

http://onpulse.ca/blog/ndp-leads-by-4-as-final-debate-looms

[PeteB]

Abacus has NDP up 4

http://onpulse.ca/blog/ndp-leads-by-4-as-final-debate-looms

Good news for NDP but the fundamentals have not changed - strengthening NDP-stable PC-crumbling Liberals-voter intention firmer for PCs.

If I was Andrea Horwath I would pay special attention to the fact that nearly 50% of the Millenials are on her side. NDP has to beef up the "get out to vote" organization for this demographic, or they may not see much of this support materialize at the voting booth. I am not entirely convinced that they have a provincewide organization capable of doing this.

And as I already said, I do think that tonight's debate may well determine the winner.

[King of Kensington]

If the NDP moves up any more in Toronto, then Kathleen Wynne might end up being the last Liberal MPP at all (though I do suspect at least one of the Thunder Bay MPPs will hang on).

So a good likelihood the remaining Liberals are all 60+.

[King of Kensington]

I don't dispute that. But without an actual poll, I still think that Naqvi's local stature and fighting spirit may win the day. We'll see.

Paul Dewar was very personally popular in Ottawa Centre too, and that didn't save him.

[Pericles]

Do you think Wynne will lose her seat?

[PeteB]

Do you think Wynne will lose her seat?

Right now I would say No.

But ask me again after the debate.

[ON Progressive]

Do you think Wynne will lose her seat?

Hopefully she holds on (the NDP have no chance here, so I want her to win to deny the PCs the seat), but it's pretty close.

[2952-0-0]

I'm in Kathleen Wynne's seat, and I've decided to wait until E Day to vote in case the NDP surges so much that it becomes worthwhile.

[ON Progressive]

I'm in Kathleen Wynne's seat, and I've decided to wait until E Day to vote in case the NDP surges so much that it becomes worthwhile.

What is it like on the ground there?

[Boston Bread]

If the riding polls are right there's a good chance the Liberals will get no seats at all. St. Paul's should be their safest seat in Toronto. And Ottawa-Vanier is their safest seat in Ottawa, but if the NDP are willing Ottawa West-Nepean then they are winning Ottawa-Vanier.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

I desperately wish I could vote, but I've been gone too long and can't viably pretend I'm coming back. Kind of a bummer, since I'll still be paying back OSAP loans for decades and the election really does matter to me in that regard... but I guess that's how things go. I'd be voting in Mississauga—Lakeshore, which is a lost cause this time around (there's no way Sousa holds it, and also no way the  NDP wins here), but I'd still do anything to keep Ford away from the premiership.

Really hoping for an NDP majority.

[Tintrlvr]

If the riding polls are right there's a good chance the Liberals will get no seats at all. St. Paul's should be their safest seat in Toronto. And Ottawa-Vanier is their safest seat in Ottawa, but if the NDP are willing Ottawa West-Nepean then they are winning Ottawa-Vanier.

Well, they're leading in St. Paul's still, albeit barely.

And although I think St. Paul's will stay Liberal, I'm not so sure it's their safest seat in Toronto this election. The three Don Valley seats are very anti-Ford in particular even if they might vote PC otherwise, and they're pretty dead zones for the NDP. I think they might end up with larger Liberal margins (over the PCs) than the Liberals end up with over the NDP in St. Paul's, and, given the way polling is going (Liberals seem to have stabilized in the low 20s (other than the Forum poll) recently, but the PCs are starting to slip from the high 30s to the mid-to-low 30s), I think the safest Liberal seats where the PCs are the likely challengers are more likely to stay Liberal than seats where it would be the NDP who were competitive.

I'd like to see a riding poll in Ottawa-Vanier.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Doug Ford is saying nothing.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Constituency polling is terrible in All Nations, but none more so than Canada...

[ON Progressive]

To me, my debate rating was:
1) Wynne
2) Horwath
3) Ford

[Hatman 🍁]

Constituency polling is terrible in All Nations, but none more so than Canada...

When I saw that you had posted, I knew exactly that was what you were going to say.  I was wondering how long it would take you to swoop in with that hot take.

[PeteB]

So VERY early thoughts on the debate:

Horwath: Good start but levelled off later on. Hit by both Ford and Wynne (I thought the right to strike question from Wynne served as a painful reminder to the voters). Still it may not matter - I have to think a little bit how all that affects her.

Ford: Lousy beginning but more animated finish. Low expectations so this may actually be enough for him.

Wynne: Surprisingly the best performance of the night. She is still unpopular but she did give Liberal voters a reason to vote for her. Does that help the Liberals or the PC (through vote splitting) we'll see.

More later...

[King of Kensington]

I think KW did pretty well considering the circumstances, maybe that'll stop the bleeding.

[ON Progressive]

I think KW did pretty well considering the circumstances, maybe that'll stop the bleeding.

I have a feeling that was her goal. To cut off the bleeding to make sure what is left of the Liberal caucus is respectable, as opposed to being completely wiped off.

[King of Kensington]

Horwath did reasonably well (but tapered off a bit) but I don't she got that final knockdown of the Liberals that would send them spiralling into Manitoba Liberal territory or anything.

[PeteB]

Horwath did reasonably well (but tapered off a bit) but I don't she got that final knockdown of the Liberals that would send them spiralling into Manitoba Liberal territory or anything.

If anything, quite the reverse happened. Like I said, I have to think about it, but my gut is telling me that we are back to 15-20 Liberal seats.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Horwath did reasonably well (but tapered off a bit) but I don't she got that final knockdown of the Liberals that would send them spiralling into Manitoba Liberal territory or anything.

If anything, quite the reverse happened. Like I said, I have to think about it, but my gut is telling me that we are back to 15-20 Liberal seats.

KW was regarded by several people as not having a strong debate performance  in 2014 yet still won a majority government so I’m not sure how much of a difference.

[adma]

Abacus has NDP up 4

http://onpulse.ca/blog/ndp-leads-by-4-as-final-debate-looms

Good news for NDP but the fundamentals have not changed - strengthening NDP-stable PC-crumbling Liberals-voter intention firmer for PCs.

PCs down 2,Libs down 1.  How is that "stable" vs "crumbling"?

To me, it looks more like "crumbling" (relative to the NDP, at least) vs "stagnant".

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

Well what I've learned from election-watching, particularly in Canada, is that once a surge like this gets rolling it's very difficult to stop. I doubt a strong debate performance by Wynne will change much at all, she's just too far gone to recover, especially when Horwath largely held her own and Ford remained mediocre. I think in the end this will have very little impact on the course of the campaign and that the NDP will continue to rise in the coming week. If some event is going to abate the NDP's continued rise, this won't be it.