2018 Senatorial Elections

[Blackacre]

Assuming a Clinton Presidency, there are three different tiers of Senate Races in 2018.

Tier 1 are Red State Dems who the GOP has the best shot of beating. West Virginia, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota. If I had to list their vulnerability, I'd do it in this order:

• Manchin, because West Virginia. (I'm slightly more optimistic than IceSpear, but juuust barely)
• Heitkamp, because of ND's rightward pull in the past few years.
• McCaskill. She's a talented politician and a moderate, but she's in a red state and barely won n 2006 and got a lucky break in 2012.
• Donnelly. Close call between him and McCaskill over who's more vulnerable, but I put Donnelly here because Indiana likes its split tickets more than other states.
• Montana. The MT Dems are a fine institution, certainly better than other red state Dem parties. Tester's still vulnerable, but not as much so as the four Senators above him.

After that is Tier 2, consisting of Ohio, Florida, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Maine, and Wisconsin. IIRC, (leaving out Maine) all of these Democratic Senators outperformed Obama, but they're still swing-state Dem Senators who would be prime pickup targets if not for Tier 1. They're probably relieved most of the fighting is going to be in Tier 1, which would leave little GOP resources for these states. They probably stay Dem if the midterm is a normal election year, but could flip GOP in a bloodbath.

Except Virginia. Warner survived 2014, as long as Kaine's replacement is decent they'll be okay. (Virginia would actually be the least safe of the Tier 2 states for Dems, alongside maybe Wisconsin, because the other Tier 2 states have 2-term Dem Senators)
Maine only flips if it's a divided 3-way race, and even then, King is probably fine.

There's also Tier 3: Arizona, Nevada, and Texas. Arizona was close in 2012, and Carmona ran ahead of Obama. Heller outran Romney in 2012, but Nevada's also known for the Reid Machine so maybe the Dems can mount a comeback here. A win in either state could offset a loss in a Tier 1 State and keep the GOP Majority narrow. But, well, these states are more then likely not going to flip.

Texas is only here because Democrats, and Lindsey Graham, salivate over the possibility of unseating Ted Cruz.

Edit: Going to make six different predictions based on these tiers. The new Senates would be based on a 2016 election that went as 538's Polls-Plus forecast characterised it on 10/17/2016, so D+5, 51/49.

1: Republican Bloodbath. GOP Pickups in every Tier 1 and 2 state: West Virginia, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, Ohio, Florida, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Maine, and Wisconsin. King doesn't even have to lose, he just has to change the party he caucuses with. That would be R + 11, enough to turn a 51 seat Dem Majority into a 60 seat, Fillibuster-Proof, Republican majority.

2. Republican Mauling. GOP Pickups in every Tier 1 state, and the Tier 2 states with 1st Term Dems: West Virginia, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, Virginia, Wisconsin, and possibly Maine.  R + 8, resulting in a 57/43 GOP majority.

3. Republican Gut Punch. GOP Pickups in every Tier 1 State, but only in Tier 1 States: West Virginia, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota. R + 5. The resulting Senate would be a 54/46 GOP Majority, exactly where we are now.

4. Republican Flesh Wound. GOP Pickups only in the most vulnerable Tier 1 States: West Virginia, North Dakota, and one of Indiana or Missouri. R + 3, new Senate would be a 52/48 GOP Majority, and an RSCC Chair would probably be out of a job.

5. Republican Laughingstock. GOP Pickup in only one of West Virginia or North Dakota, Democratic Pickup in one of Nevada or Arizona. +0, 51/49 Senate again, everybody laughs at the GOP.

6. Democratic Wet Dream. No GOP Pickups. Democratic Pickups in Arizona, Nevada, and possibly Texas. New Senate would be a 54/46 Democratic Majority that lasts until the alarm wakes Chuck Schumer up in the morning.

[Blackacre]

^Virginia will probably have a 2017 special, and it remains to be seen if McAuliffe will appoint a placeholder or someone who will actually try to hold the seat. And Democrats aren't good at winning off-off year elections in any case, 2013 was just a lucky break due to the shutdown and would have gone the other way if the election was held a week later due to Obamacare. Plus Warner's 2014 victory is actually bad news for Dems because of the margin, he was supposed to win by double digits but nearly lost. Had R's been aware of just how close Gillespie was and spent money on GOTV, they would have won. But everyone believed right up until an hour after polls closed that Warner was going to get a YUGE landslide even as the rest of the country voted for republicans. Virginia is a pure Toss-Up.

Assuming you're right, that puts Virginia in the middle or upper half of Tier 2 rather the the bottom. As for Warner, he survived even when the Dems overestimated his chanced big time. They'll learn from that and actually invest in VA in 2018. Still not safe, but also nowhere near what I'm calling Tier 1.

As for Maine though, what about the possibility of King being re-elected but changing his caucus? He went with the Dems in 2012 because they had a clear majority, I can imagine McConnell trying to convince King to join them if they already have a clear majority. He could also be the deciding vote in a Senate that was 48 Dems, 50 Republicans, him, and Sanders.

[Blackacre]

2 things: one, what's the deal with Ohio? And two, that map made me realize the position Nevada is in. For two cycles in a row it will be the one pickup opportunity for a party otherwise defending a ton of seats

[Blackacre]

2 things: one, what's the deal with Ohio? And two, that map made me realize the position Nevada is in. For two cycles in a row it will be the one pickup opportunity for a party otherwise defending a ton of seats

I was extrapolating Ohio's R trend in this election to predict how it would behave in a Hillary midterm.

And Brown legislates like he represents a D+15 state when he represents an R+1 state. There are plenty of good, (relatively) moderate Republicans who can take him out. Word is that Kasich and friends are rallying behind Rep. Pat Tiberi.

On the other hand, his approvals are pretty good right now

[Blackacre]

I think Massachusetts would be a toss up if Willam Weld runs. A hypothetical poll from this year showed Weld only 3 points behind Warren. 

Not likely. She has a 61% favorable rating in Massachusetts.

[Blackacre]

So anywhere from D+2 to R+3.

Or anywhere from D+2 to R+5?

Or anywhere from D+4 to R+11??

Some explanations:
I'm using Tossup-Tilt-Lean-Likely-Safe as my spectrum
I consider a "likely" state to be a state that is very likely to go for the party it's shaded in but has a nonzero chance of going the other way. This is Texas. Cruz will probably win, but there is a slim chance he won't. This is also how I'm characterizing Florida and Virginia, as well as New Jersey. I will move NJ to Safe D once I'm 100% sure that someone who is not the incumbent will be the D nominee.

I'll move Alabama to Lean R if Moore wins and National Dems get involved, and to Safe R if that does not happen. This is all in lieu of general election polling ofc.

Arizona goes to Lean D as soon as a credibal Democrat steps up to run against Flake.

[Blackacre]

Democrats shouldn't get cocky about President Trump's poll numbers.  Their own numbers are even worse than his, and Trump actually breaks about even with people who are actually likely to vote.  Most of all, they are in the same position as Senate Republicans were last election: they have far more seats to defend, and thus more to lose.

Obama was more popular than the GOP in November 2010. Didn't matter. Midterms are a referendum on the President's party.