Portugal's politics and elections

[Mike88]

The Euthanasia debate and vote have began in Parliament:


Rally against the legalization of Euthanasia in front of Parliament, earlier today.

Parliament will discuss, and vote, today on the legalization of Euthanasia. The vote outcome is still up in the air, as there is doubts on the number of PSD MPs that will vote in favour and/or abstain, and the number of PS MPs that will abstain. Nonetheless, the vote will not be definitive. If the vote passes, the proposal will be sent to a Parliamentary committee that will draft a final text and then sent again to Parliament to be voted again. Then, it will be sent to the President of the Republic and/or to the Constitutional Court by the President and/or parties/movements against Euthanasia. If it fails, it will probably only be discussed after the 2019 elections.

[Mike88]

Parliament struck down all 4 bills for the legalization of Euthanasia:

PS bill:

115 Against (80 PSD; CDS; PCP; 2 PS)
110 In Favour (84 PS; BE; 4 PSD; PEV; PAN)
    4 Abstentions (4 PSD)
    1 Not present (1 PSD)

BE bill:

117 Against (81 PSD; CDS; PCP; 3 PS)
104 In favour (79 PS; BE; 3 PSD; PEV; PAN)
    8 Abstentions (4 PS; 4 PSD)
    1 Not present (1 PSD)

PEV bill:

117 Against (81 PSD; CDS; PCP; 3 PS)
104 In favour (79 PS; BE; 3 PSD; PEV; PAN)
    8 Abstentions (4 PS; 4 PSD)
    1 Not present (1 PSD)

PAN bill:

116 Against (80 PSD; CDS; PCP; 3 PS)
102 In Favour (77 PS; BE; 3 PSD; PEV; PAN)
  11 Abstentions (6 PS; 5 PSD)
    1 Not present (1 PSD)

[Mike88]

Parliament approves medical marijuana:

The Parliamentary committee for Health has approved the final text of the law that will allow the use of medical marijuana. The law will now be sent to discussion in the floor of Parliament, which will also be voted. The final text was approved by PSD, PS, BE and PAN and with the abstention of CDS and PCP. The law allows the use of medical marijuana only after all normal treatments don't work. Adding to that, military labs will be able to produce pills on the basis of marijuana.

[Mike88]

Changes in labour laws approved by employers and unions, leftwing parties and unions are against:

The labour code will be updated after a deal between the government, employers associations and UGT union, union close to the PS, was reached. The leftwing parties, BE and PCP, plus leftwing unions like CGTP, very close to the PCP, are totally against the deal and will vote against it in Parliament. The main changes in the labour code are:

- Extend very short-term contracts;

- Limit Term and Temporary Hirings;

- Lengthen the work experience period of young people and the unemployed;

- Delay the end of the individual time bank;

- Create new collective bargaining rights;

- Support the conversion of contracts;

Like i said above, BE and PCP are against this deal but the government and employers associations are counting on with the support of Rui Rio and the PSD. In fact, Rio has already stated that the party is inclined to support the deal due to the "respect the party has of the deals between employers and unions".

At the same time, Angela Merkel started an official visit to Portugal on Wednesday and ended it today, Thursday. Merkel had meetings with the PM, António Costa, the President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa and the PSD leader, Rui Rio. Merkel said she is very happy to return to a more "optimistic Portugal" with a growing economy and lower unemployment. Merkel started her visit in Portugal with a visit to a factory in Braga city, then went to Porto city and ended in Lisbon city.


António Costa and Angela Merkel in Lisbon.


Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa and Angela Merkel in Lisbon.


Rui Rio and Angela Merkel in Lisbon.

[Mike88]

The newest controversy in Portugal: the government's campaign against tobacco:

This week, the government and the Health minister, unveiled the newest campaign to fight tobacco consumption in Portugal. The campaign video, called "Princesses don't smoke", tells the story of a mother who smokes heavily while playing with her daughter, who likes to dress and act like a princess, at the same time the little girl imitates her mother smoking.

Here's the video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-H-0VV_QwNs

The campaign is generating a lot of controversy, as it is very criticized for being too sexist. Some PS MPs, plus the leader of the BE, have label the video as very sexist and want the government to end the campaign or change it. Women's rights associations are also very critical of the video campaign, and some have filed a complaint and are criticizing the government. In their defense, the government, by the voice of the head of General Health Department (DGS) Graça Freitas, says that the video targets especially women because women smoke more than men.

[Mike88]

Negotiations between teachers unions and the government fail:


Teachers union rally in May 2018.

Teachers unions have ended negotiations with the government after the Minister of Education proposed 2 and half years for teachers to regain wages and career upgrades for time of service, or nothing. Teachers unions wanted all 8 years of frozen wages and carred upgrades, since 2010, to be counted. This is a huge blow for unions as they hoped the government would try to find some solution after Parliament approved a motion advising the government to count all 8 years.

Unions now say they will go on strike, again, and will do mass rallies against the government. A strike during the exam period, to start in 2/3 weeks from, is on the table. The PM has said he cannot negotiate with unions that have such harsh and impossible proposals. The impact of the accounting of time of service from teachers would be around 600 million euros.

BE and PCP have reacted very strongly against Costa. In the PM Q&A debate in Parliament, this afternoon, Costa was called as "naive" by the PCP and the most harsh attacks came from BE, as they called Costa's government as "arrogant" and "uncompromising".

[Mike88]

Interesting site that tracks votes in the Portuguese Parliament:


Hemicycle, Democracy in real time. Picture of a vote by MPs.

http://hemiciclo.pt/

Just found this site that tracks every vote proposed in Parliament. For anyone who is interested on how the Portuguese Parliament works, this site has it all: voting by MPs, statistics by party, policies proposed by party. Very interesting.

[Mike88]

Political update:

Far-right and rightwing movements within police forces are being investigated. In an interview to Público newspaper, Homeland inspector-general, judge Margarida Blasco, says that there is suspicions that far-right and rightwing movements are influencing police forces. She added that there are complains that are currently being investigated. She also said that this kind of movements need more scrutiny and asked the government to hire more inspectores as the department only has 14 inspectors to supervise more than 50,000 police officers.

The PSD has unveiled policies towards families and to incentive more births. The document, called "Policies for Children", has more than 50 pages and describes the PSD's incentives to make it easier to families to raise and have children. The document was presented by the PSD leader, Rui Rio.


Rui Rio unveiling his policies.

As he presented the document, Rio highlighted the demographic winter Portugal is currently suffering and criticized the government for having no policies towards families and children. The party proposes a series of policies:

- Every pregnant woman would receive, at the 7th month of gestation, an annual subsidy of 857,8 euros until the child is 6 years old. After that, the subsidy would be reduced to 428.90 euros, until the child hits the age of 18. Overall, every child would receive 10,293.50 euros;

- Extension of maternity or paternity leave for a total of 26 weeks, against the current 20 weeks;

- Free public kindergarten for all children between the age of six months to 6 years old;

- Incentives for companies to have kindergartens near or within their installations;

Adding to this, the PSD also proposes the abolishment of the family allowance, a subsidy paid to help families. But the PSD proposal harms poorest families with a single child. According to the media, families with one child in the poorest households currently receive, until age 18, 10,662 euros against the 10,293 euros the party proposes. On the other hand, families, poorer or richer, with 2 or more children and/or with more income, are benefited. Nonetheless, families associations are praising the PSD's proposals.

The PSD also proposed policies towards taxes and the health services. Rio wants taxes on salt and sugar to continue to be implemented, but wants to lower taxes on other goods and healthier foods.

The tension between the government and teachers unions continues. The Unions want more negotiations with the government, after the PM said that there is room for phasing the recovery of careers and salaries for teachers. This seems to contradict the Education Minister statements to the unions. Nonetheless, Costa said that there is no money left to accommodate the unions proposals and was hammered by all parties, with the expection of PS, in the PM Q&A debate in Parliament, on Tuesday.


António Costa in the PM Q&A debate in Parliament.

If the government doesn't reach an agreement with unions, strikes and rallies against the government will intensify in the next few months. Another teacher strike is already schedule for this month, between 18 and 29 June, that could be extend to July 15 if the government doesn't persue an agreement.

[Mike88]

Tensions between teachers unions and the government continue to get worse:

After the negotiations between teachers unions and the government failed last week, accusations between unions and government officials have become worse. The unions called for a series of strikes for this week and next Monday, June 18, during the period were students grades are set to be published. The calling of a strike means that many students may go to their final exams, in the end of the month, without any grades. To prevent this, the government has sent a memo to all schools saying that any student who doesn't have their grades, can go to exams. The exam grade values 30% of the final grade.  


Rally against the government's education policies in May 2018.

This meassure is infuriating unions, with them accusing the government of creating "illegal laws". Mário Nogueira, the head of the largest teachers unions - close to the PCP - has said that "the government and the minister have lost their minds". The strike on June 18, will probably have more impact.

BE and PCP have been somewhat silent about all of this. PCP has been more vocal in attacking the government, but not that hard. Pundits believe Costa is experimenting a new "centrist strategy", that is, being tough to unions and leftwing movements. Francisco Louçã, former BE leader, suggests that Costa is creating a war with unions on purpose to steal votes from PSD and CDS and win an absolute majority.

[Mike88]

New immigration laws: PS proposes legalization of illegal immigrants who have been working for more than a year:

The Socialist Party (PS) has sent a bill to Parliament that proposes the automatic legalization of illegal immigrants who have been working for more than a year in Portugal. The party also proposes legislation to speed up ongoing legalization processes. According to unofficial data, more than 30,000 immigrants in Portugal are currently working and paying taxes to Social Security although they are in an illegal situation, that is, without a residence permit.


Illegal immigrants protesting in front of Parliament, May 2018.

The government is also preparing new legislation involving immigrants. The government proposes legalizing more immigrants without entry visas for humanitarian reasons. This proposed law is similar to the PS one, as the main goal is to resolve the situation of those 30,000 illegal immigrants. The PM, António Costa, and all parties from the left to the right, defend more immigration to Portugal as a way to fight against the demographic winter Portugal is suffering, plus to stop the rapid aging of the population.

Also, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, President of the Republic, will meet with Donald Trump during his visit to Washington on 26 and 27 June.  

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Interesting site that tracks votes in the Portuguese Parliament:


Hemicycle, Democracy in real time. Picture of a vote by MPs.

http://hemiciclo.pt/

Just found this site that tracks every vote proposed in Parliament. For anyone who is interested on how the Portuguese Parliament works, this site has it all: voting by MPs, statistics by party, policies proposed by party. Very interesting.

So you do not have in Portugal publicly available information about votings etc. of the parliament online made by parliament itself? Because that webpage looks like some watchdog/NGOs webpage, I am a little bit surprised.

[Mike88]

So you do not have in Portugal publicly available information about votings etc. of the parliament online made by parliament itself? Because that webpage looks like some watchdog/NGOs webpage, I am a little bit surprised.

The Parliament website has all the information about voting results, MPs profiles, legislation explanation, etc. The Parliament website is this: https://www.parlamento.pt/

The other website, hemiciclo.pt, has a more interactive way to look at the results rather than the Parliament's website that only has PDFs of the voting results. But almost all of the data in the hemiciclo.pt website comes from the Parliament website.

[Mike88]

Aximage poll from June:

Vote share %:

37.0% PS (-0.7)
27.8% PSD (+0.2)
10.3% BE (+0.3)
  7.2% CDU (-0.5)
  6.3% CDS (-0.4)
  8.5% Others/Invalid (+0.3)
  2.9% Undecided (+0.9)

Popularity ratings: (in a scale between 0 and 20)

12.2 António Costa
11.1 Rui Rio
10.4 Catarina Martins
  9.1 Jerónimo de Sousa
  8.3 Assunção Cristas

Preferred PM:

57.3% António Costa (-2.5)
31.2% Rui Rio (+2.2)

Poll conducted between 9 and 12 June 2018. Polled 602 voters. MoE of 4.00%

[Mike88]

The Aximage poll seems to have shaken the political scene:

The new Aximage poll seems to have shaken the political waters in Portugal. The PS has fallen for the 4th consecutive month in this poll, while PSD has increased once again, although very, very slightly. Some pundits, close to the PS, are saying all of the things Costa tried to escape from: the wildfires management, the Sócrates case, the fights with the unions, are all catching up with him and the PS.


PS and PSD Aximage polling numbers since June 2017.

The PSD, on the other hand, sees hope in the current trend. Even some PSD MPs, like Carlos Abreu Amorim - who is very critical of Rio - say that the possibility of the PSD winning the 2019 elections is becoming more and more strong. That's a bit of a stretch, but whatever. The PSD still has a 9% gap from the PS, but that gap is narrowing month after month, and it remains to be seen if the party can hold on to this trend.

Costa has a few hard days still ahead. The teachers strike is becoming a real problem for the government and the unions are criticizing more and more the government. The PSD's position has been ambiguous on this issue: they understand the unions and criticize the government for the spin and lying to teachers but, at the same time, they acknowledge that money is short and that Rio wouldn't promise anything he couldn't keep. And then there's the NHS. After July, the working hours in hospitals will be reduced from 40 to 35 hours a week. That means that many services could be without staff and could have to close down. The government, for now and from the voice of the Finance minister, doesn't expect to hire more staff.

We'll see if the current negative trend for the PS becomes more and more solid, or not.

[Mike88]

Aximage poll on future coalitions and a possible snap election:

Q1: What kind of government you prefer after 2019, in the event of a PS victory?

All voters:

39.1% PS minority government
37.0% A repeat of the PS/BE/CDU agreement
15.6% PS/PSD agreement
  8.2% No opinion

By Party:                                                              
                                                                    
PS
56.1% A repeat of the PS/BE/CDU agreement
31.2% PS minority government
10.8% PS/PSD agreement
  1.9% No opinion

PSD
42.1% PS minority government
33.3% PS/PSD agreement
17.3% A repeat of the PS/BE/CDU agreement
  7.3% No opinion

BE
56.1% A repeat of the PS/BE/CDU agreement
15.2% PS minority government
  7.3% PS/PSD agreement
21.4% No opinion

CDS
47.7% PS minority government
23.0% PS/PSD agreement
18.7% A repeat of the PS/BE/CDU agreement
10.6% No opinion

CDU
61.6% A repeat of the PS/BE/CDU agreement
28.8% PS minority government
  9.6% PS/PSD agreement

Q2: If the government collapses and a snap election is called, who's to blame?

36.5% PS
29.8% CDU
18.6% BE
  2.7% None of the three
12.4% No opinion

Poll conducted between 9 and 12 June 2018. Polled 602 voters. MoE of 4.00%

[Mike88]

What can unite PSD, PS, CDS and BE MPs? Donald Trump's immigration policies:

An interesting event will happen Thursday in Lisbon. MPs from parties left to right, plus civic movements and celebreties, will convene in a rally, Thursday afternoon, against Donald Trump's immigration policy involving the separation of children from their parents in the US-Mexican border. The PSD caucus leader, Fernando Negão, Ana Rita Bessa, CDS MP, Mariana and Joana Mortágua, both BE MPs, and João Galamba, PS MP and former spokesperson for the party, will be at the rally.

This rally, with many high profile members of Parliament, happens just one week before Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa's trip to the US, where he will meet with Donald Trump.

[Mike88]

Defeat for the government as Parliament strucks down additional fuel tax with the votes of PSD, BE, CDS and PCP:



PSD, BE, CDS and PCP united in a weird front, not the first time, to struck down the additional fuel tax, approved in 2016. The government and the PS pleaded with MPs to not struck down the tax as it would lose the state many millions of euros. At the end, Parliament approved the PSD, CDS and PCP bills and rejected the BE one. PS voted against all bills. The additional fuel tax was introduced in 2016 and, according to the plans back then, it would be reduced as the price of oil went up. But, the tax basically never went down as oil prices continued to rose. This made this tax very unpopular as Portugal already has one of Europe's highest fuel prices: 1,68 euros per liter in gasoline and 1,45 euros per liter in diesel. Not to mention that 63% of the price of fuel are taxes.

Although Parliament voted to struck down the tax, it doesn't mean fuel prices will fall any time soon. The approved bills will now be sent to a committee that will draft a final proposal to be voted later in Parliament. If the final bill is then approved, the government isn't obliged to follow Parliament's decision but the pressure would be enormous if they don't follow. The government, or the PS, could also ask for this Parliamentary move to be labeled as unconstitutional, as they say it violates budget rules.

[Mike88]

Confusion in the PSD - Rui Rio didn't want PSD MPs to vote in favour of the CDS fuel tax repeal bill but they voted in favour anyway:

Another episode in the silent, but some times vocal, feud between the PSD leadership and the PSD caucus. This time because Rio was unaware about the PSD caucus intentions about the CDS fuel tax repeal bill. The CDS bill has constitutional issues, as it seems to violate budget rules and laws. The PSD bill, on the other hand, wanted the government to lower the tax immediately as the budget and that tax rules stipulate. When confronted by reporters, the PSD caucus leader, Fernando Negrão, was vague and said that he and Rio have talked as always but didn't explain if Rio knew about the PSD vote on the CDS bill.

In other words, it's just the PSD being the PSD.

Also, a local by-election has, finally, been called in Darque parish, Viana do Castelo. On 2 September, more than 7,300 voters will choose a new local government.


Darque parish, population around 8,000.

The previous PS minority cabinet fell after PSD and CDU decided to struck it down. PS, CDU and CDS have already presented their candidacies and it's expected that PSD and BE will also present candidates. The race will, most likely, be between PS and CDU. PSD only won in 1997 in this parish. Darque, in the south bank of the Lima river, has a strong fishing community and a big chunk of population that works in the Viana do Castelo shipyards. Just like Viana do Castelo city, Darque is very leftwing.

[Mike88]

Government wants to open the door to 75,000 immigrants per year:


Portugal's population decreased to 10,291,027 in 2017, down 271,151 since 2011.

After the government presented legislation to legalize the situation of more than 30,000 illegal immigrants who work and pay taxes in Portugal, the government now wants to encourage more than 75,000 immigrants per year to come to Portugal in order to stop the rapid decrease of the working population, and the population overall. The minister of internal Affairs said, to Expresso newspaper, that "if immigrants are needed, no limits will be imposed."

The government wants to incentive immigrants to work in startups, industries, agriculture and tourism. The PSD, on the other hand, isn't very happy with the government's proposal. The party defends that the priority should be on birth incentives than rather more immigration. The vice-president of the party, David Justino, says that there's "big difference between both parties on how to tackle the demographic winter."

[Mike88]

President of the Republic cancels his agenda until Tuesday to rest after he fainted in Braga:


Marcelo Rebelo Sousa being rushed to a near building after he fainted.

Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, President of the Republic, scared everybody this Saturday as he fainted while visiting Braga city. The President was rushed to hospital, and after a few hours of medical observation and exams, he was released and talked to reporters. Marcelo said he suffered a severe gastroenteritis that added with high temperatures, it was 37ºC (99ºF) in Braga, and dehydration made his heart rate drop dramatically. Doctors say that his trip to Russia is to blame, as he ate something bad in Russia, plus jet-lag, was too much for the almost 70 year old President of the Republic.

Marcelo's official agenda will now be low key until Tuesday in order for him to rest. Tuesday he will start a visit to the US where he will meet with Donald Trump.

It's not the first time, Presidents of the Republic have health scares. Jorge Sampaio, 1996-2006, has heart problems and in July 1996, he was operated and had to he replaced by the Speaker of Parliament for a few days. Cavaco Silva, 2006-2016, also fainted a few times and Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa was, this year, operated to remove a hernia.

[Republican Left]

Hello, Mike, if I may ask, what would you do to "fix" Portugal, if you were PM, has your coalition behind you and got at least two terms?

[Republican Left]

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[Mike88]

Hello, Mike, if I may ask, what would you do to "fix" Portugal, if you were PM, has your coalition behind you and got at least two terms?

Well, i never though on what i would do to "fix" Portugal nor imagine myself as PM, but there are some policies i would persue, or would like politicians to persue. First, the main problems we have is a lack of productivity and a huge inability to make money. I would persue policies to ease business bureaucracies, like end, or ease, environmental, fiscal or local regulations that hurt businesses particularly in the rural areas, lower corporate taxes from the current 21% to around 14% in 8 years, create legislation that ensures the well being of workers like full parental leave, free public kindergartens, close to businesses or within the facilities, create good working conditions and incentive businesses and companies to increase wages. I would also tackle the energy lobby, which is one of the cancers of this country. We pay higher electricity, gas, water than Spain. It's unbelievable. So, i would fight against this as the energy bills have a huge toll on families and businesses. I would also give the management of urban energy networks to REN, National Energy Networks, rather than EDP, Energy of Portugal, who currently controls it which is weird because they can forbid other companies to use those same energy networks. I don't if it would be easy because these energy companies made deals with previous governments that are very hard, or almost impossible, to solve. But, overall, my main goal, if i was PM, would be helping workers and businesses to be more productive and create more money.

On the social welfare, i would reform Social Security by creating, like Al Gore once said, a "lockbox" for pensions paid to Social Security as people would pay a certain amount for their pension, which the State couldn't touch, and another part to pay for social services, protection and help for the most needed. I would also reform the NHS by increasing spending particularly on wages for nurses and doctors. Added to this, i would reorganize hospitals and local health facilities by creating more local health facilities (USF) in every parish, with homecare for some people if needed. I would also decentralize Hospital management and create regional hospital management organizations in which local councils and local populations would be part of. I would also end some PPP in some hospitals but persue agreements with private hospitals to attend patients if emergency rooms in public hospitals are overflowed. On Education, i would persue a broad agreement with all parties for a 50 year curriculum and teacher progression, in order to stop the constant change between PS and PSD failed policies towards the education system. I would also reform the justice system, particularly on the economic front as courts are very slow in dealing with bankruptcies and other financial issues. I would reduce taxes of fuel prices, it's more expensive to "fill the pump" in Portugal than in Spain, France, Italy, Greece, you name it. Reduce VAT to around 17% and increase indirect taxation on energy drinks, fat foods, others. Adding to this, i would reduce by 60/70% tolls in all highways as we have deserted highways because tolls are over the roof.

I would create a national fund to reconstruct our infrastructures, particularly railways, and restore our monuments. Added to this i would also persue policies towards rural areas and agriculture by creating incentives for businesses, like the ones i posted above, and creating fiscal and health/educational conditions for farmers to buy, or restore, lands to seed. I would also change the current electoral system to a mix system: 60% elected by FPTP and 40% by a nationwide constituency. These would be some of the things i would do. Don't know if they were all possible, but i hope that some would be.

Also, welcome to the forum Republican Left.

[Mike88]

Luís Montenegro, and 2 other PSD MPs, are declared suspects in the Euro 2016 paid travels scandal:


Luís Montenegro, possible contender for the 2020 PSD leadership race.

Luís Montenegro, Hugo Soares and Luis Campos Ferreira, all three from the PSD, have been declared suspects in the Euro 2016 paid travels scandal, where many MPs, and governmental officials too, were, allegedly, given trips to see football matches in the Euro 2016 paid by several private companies, some in which the state has lawsuits against in courts. This kind of payments can be a crime of wrongful receipt of advantage. Curiously, all three are big critics of Rui Rio's leadership, and, if this case goes forward, it could be a blow to Montenegro's leadership ambitions in 2020.

[Republican Left]

Hello Mike, I know this isn't an AMA about Portugal's political history but I wanted to a few questions.

a) Why does Portugal (and it other southern counterparts like Spain, Italy and Greece) have relatively underdeveloped economies particularly compared to its northern counterparts (Scandinavia, UK, Germany etc)? Is this partly due to corruption and public integrity issues (and if so, what are the reasons behind long-run corruption, is this the legacy of monarchical partimonialism?)

b) Why is the "right" in Portugal (CSD/PSD) so weak? Is there anything they (particularly the CSD-PP) can do to win back broad base appeal (focus on grassroots organization and outreach?) Is this due to austerity measures that alienated many Portuguese voters? The fusion of many of the leftist parties akin to the CDS-PP and PSD coalitions? Or is it a geographic thing (the South is very left and the bulk of voters live there?)?