Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws

[Seattle]

In WA, the gay-marriage amendment is only ahead by 4 anymore according to a new poll:

49-45 in favor of gay marriage

http://blog.seattlepi.com/seattlepolitics/2012/10/24/new-poll-points-to-tightening-race-on-gay-marriage

I wouldn't be too worried, it's Elway and they aren't a great polster.

[Seattle]

In WA, the gay-marriage amendment is only ahead by 4 anymore according to a new poll:

49-45 in favor of gay marriage

http://blog.seattlepi.com/seattlepolitics/2012/10/24/new-poll-points-to-tightening-race-on-gay-marriage

I wouldn't be too worried, it's Elway and they aren't a great polster.

So what do you think the actual numbers are? 

I don't think R-74's support is quite as high as what PPP, SUSA, and the others have showed, but I believe 51-53% will be the likely range for it. I like that the Washington Poll came out with those "adjusted" numbers to try and account for a presumed Bradley Effect. Even then, R-74 was leading 53-46, or something like that. I've always thought this was going to be tight, but in the end, Seattle and Eastside voting should be able to carry it through.

[Seattle]

Is SUSA robocalling cell phones or only landlines? I remember then skewing old.

Doesn't look to skew that old, but only 63% among under-35s is a little suspicious. Interesting confirmation for Native American support for SSM, though; New Mexico might be the only state with a big enough Native population to get a not-totally-ridiculous sample size.

Poll seems off, I agree, but who knows. SUSA does have a reputation for being random.

What about Arizona or Oklahoma?