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Not a fan of the ICC. Why did they only issue an arrest warrant for Putin because of the kindapping of Ukrainian children? Not that this isn't bad enough, but they apparently couldn't for all the rest.

The “would not vote” part isn’t quite a five alarm fire yet, but it’s definitely at three alarms and rising

Nate Cohn would love this - if you focus only on 2020 voters, the results for 2024 look like this:

Biden 78%
Trump 11%
Not sure/wouldn't vote 11%

H2H w/o not sure/wouldn't vote
Biden 87%
Trump 13%

Biden has a very minor drop among 2020 voters. Basically where 90% of his shortcomings right now with black voters are among the 2020 non-voters.

Real low point

I don't understand why he had to say anything about this at all.  It may be true that they are not "equivalent", but what does that matter?  It's not like you decline to prosecute someone of one murder because someone else has murdered twenty people.

Biden's best hope at triangulation in this conflict is expressing general support for Israel but opposition to the Netanyahu regime, and this completely undermines that.

And just in general, I would like to see the US be much more active and compliant in ICC efforts to combat human rights abuses.

Mayor Weinberger also not running. Philslide inbound.

Obvious junk is obvious.

There won't be a six point margin this year, and certainly not for Trump. He would be happy to win the popular vote at all.

     While I do agree Trump doesn't win by 6, I'll just point out that this is the same mindset Atlas brought to the table in 2014. We all know how that went.

We've all been wrong over time. And I honestly would be more worried if this poll was out in late September or into October (assuming other polls were as they are, but even then this one is an outlier).

     Sure, having two (or more) sides in a factual dispute means someone has to be wrong. I bring it up to caution that maybe we should be more circumspect than saying "obvious junk is obvious", because I heard that once before when the obvious junk actually turned out to be fairly accurate.

Way back in 2016, Trafalgar polls were deemed as rubbish and dismissed as bogus. They were even rated as C by Nate Silver, but turned out to be very accurate. Their methodology used is still a bit questionable to some, but we don’t know how they ended up being spot on in 2016.

yeah and how did they do in 2022

I wonder if it could have saved Donnelly. Heitkamp lost by too much and McCaskill was never going to vote against him because she's a resist lib at heart despite being from a red state.

Trump win Nevada/Arizona
and if trump win Michigan it a sign that Biden have lost horribly.

You contribute nothing but spam to this board. Cut it out

What do you contribute?

A lot more than that guy. By the way, nobody asked you for your thoughts

Well Can you stop being Rude? nobody asking and liking that your being prestigious asshole to other members here.

If you stop talking nonsense, nobody will be rude to you

Obvious junk is obvious.

There won't be a six point margin this year, and certainly not for Trump. He would be happy to win the popular vote at all.

     While I do agree Trump doesn't win by 6, I'll just point out that this is the same mindset Atlas brought to the table in 2014. We all know how that went.

We've all been wrong over time. And I honestly would be more worried if this poll was out in late September or into October (assuming other polls were as they are, but even then this one is an outlier).

     Sure, having two (or more) sides in a factual dispute means someone has to be wrong. I bring it up to caution that maybe we should be more circumspect than saying "obvious junk is obvious", because I heard that once before when the obvious junk actually turned out to be fairly accurate.

Way back in 2016, Trafalgar polls were deemed as rubbish and dismissed as bogus. They were even rated as C by Nate Silver, but turned out to be very accurate. Their methodology used is still a bit questionable to some, but we don’t know how they ended up being spot on in 2016.