Spanish elections and politics

[Tender Branson]

Btw:

Is PP+Cs+VOX even possible if the numbers are there for them ?

Or has either PP or Cs already ruled out a coalition with VOX ?

[Former President tack50]

Honestly, after 40 years of PSOE-A governments I don't think Cs could refuse to prop up PP even if it is alonside Vox.

In any case I don't think they fully ruled it out

[Mike88]

Btw:

Is PP+Cs+VOX even possible if the numbers are there for them ?

Or has either PP or Cs already ruled out a coalition with VOX ?

According to El País, PP insiders say this is a completely new political scene and that Vox's surge opens new possibilities.

[jaichind]

Wow .. nice numbers for VOX.  Hopefully PP + C + VOX > PSOE + AA.  Most likely not but if VOX is under polled ...

[Velasco]

Cs candidate Juan Marín said that his party would not make deals with VOX, because it's eurosceptic and diesn't share orange values. However, Marín said that he would accept the Vox support in exchange for nothing. In other words, if they have the numbers the parties of the right will make an arrangement.

Low turnout, far right rise. Nightmarish scenario.  I hope the results mitigate the shock, but the trend is clear. Anti-politics, chaos, conflict. Very bad prospect.

[Mike88]

Btw:

Is PP+Cs+VOX even possible if the numbers are there for them ?

Or has either PP or Cs already ruled out a coalition with VOX ?

According to El País, PP insiders say this is a completely new political scene and that Vox's surge opens new possibilities.

While, also according to El País, C's are saying caution, caution and they see as very difficult a sum between PP+C's and Vox.

[Tender Branson]

Cs candidate Juan Marín said that his party would not make deals with VOX, because it's eurosceptic and diesn't share orange values. However, Marín said that he would accept the Vox support in exchange for nothing. In other words, if they have the numbers the parties of the right will make an arrangement.

Low turnout, far right rise. Nightmarish scenario.  I hope the results mitigate the shock, but the trend is clear. Anti-politics, chaos, conflict. Very bad prospect.

Not always. In some places like Austria or the US, the far-right/Trump-GOP also does well in high-turnout elections.

And while Austria ÖVP-FPÖ 1.0 between 2000-2006 and Trump/GOP was/is indeed chaotic and creating conflict, the current ÖVP-FPÖ government 2.0 has learned a lot and is now one of the best-performing and most stable governments in Europe.

It's all a matter of how competent the far-right parties in charge of the government are and how much they are willing to work on solutions for the people who elected them ...

[Mike88]

More data from the GAD 3 poll. Results by provinces:



PSOE would win all 8 provinces.

[bigic]

L - left-of-centre parties PSOE, AA
R - right-of-centre parties PP, Cs, VOX
Huelva
L 6-7
R 4-5
Sevilla
L 10
R 8
Cadiz
L 8
R 7
Malaga
L 8
R 9
Cordoba
L 6-7
R 5-6
Jaen
L 5-6
R 5-6
Granada
L 6-7
R 6-7
Almeria
L 5
R 7

The most optimistic scenario for L:
L 58
R 51

The most optimistic scenario for R:
L 54
R 55 (1 seat majority)

Of course PSOE-Cs is also possible.

[Mike88]

PSOE internal poll:

PSOE: 39-40 seats
PP: 25
C's: 20
AA: 18
Vox: 6-7

[Mike88]

82.8% in:

28.7% PSOE, 33 seats
20.5% PP, 26
17.9% C's, 21
16.2% AA, 17
10.8% Vox, 12
  1.9% PACMA

[BigSerg]

PSOE internal poll:

PSOE: 39-40 seats
PP: 25
C's: 20
AA: 18
Vox: 6-7

Lol Psoe is dead

[BigSerg]

82.8% in:

28.7% PSOE, 33 seats
20.5% PP, 26
17.9% C's, 21
16.2% AA, 17
10.8% Vox, 12
  1.9% PACMA

It's happening!

[jaichind]

82.8% in:

28.7% PSOE, 33 seats
20.5% PP, 26
17.9% C's, 21
16.2% AA, 17
10.8% Vox, 12
  1.9% PACMA

YES !!

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Did the Vox break through with working class voters?

[Skye]

Wow VOX got double digits.

[Mike88]

88.8% in:

28.5% PSOE, 34 seats
20.6% PP, 26
18.0% C's, 20
16.2% AA, 17
10.8% Vox, 12

49.4% PP+C's+VOX, 58 seats
44.7% PSOE+AA, 51

[jaichind]

PSOE vote share going up slightly as time goes on.  Right now PSOE+C short of majority.  Maybe at the end PSOE+C might get to majority.

[jaichind]

93.43% in:

28.29% PSOE, 33 seats
20.66% PP, 26
18.12% C's, 21
16.16% AA, 17
10.88% Vox, 12

49.66% PP+C's+VOX, 58 seats
44.45% PSOE+AA, 51

[Tender Branson]

Woah, huge rightwing majority (59 to 50 seats) in this former leftwing stronghold ...

[jaichind]

97.64% in:

28.06% PSOE, 33 seats
20.74% PP, 26
18.21% C's, 21
16.16% AA, 17
10.94% Vox, 12

49.89% PP+C's+VOX, 58 seats
44.22% PSOE+AA, 51

PP+C's+VOX vote share closing in on 50%

[ON Progressive]

Yet another depressing election result.

Has there literally been any good election this decade for left wing parties in Europe?

[Tender Branson]

Am I wrong to classify VOX‘s stunning success today with migrants storming Andalusian beaches and Sanchez‘s open-arms policy ala Merkel ?

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Yet another depressing election result.

Has there literally been any good election this decade for left wing parties in Europe?

Does the UK snap election count?

[Former President tack50]

Did the Vox break through with working class voters?

Well, I'd have to look at municipality data, but looking at the poorest and richest areas of Seville  they certainly got a lot of votes but still better on richer areas:

Seville

Cerro Amate (poorest): 7.7%
Casco Antiguo (richest): 15.6%
Overall: 12.4%