Spanish elections and politics

[BigSerg]

My Prediction
Psoe:32%
PP:20%
AA:18%
Cs:17%
Vox:8%
Other:5%

[Velasco]

Today there was a vox demonstration in Madrid with more than 50000 attendees. That's more than the total votes he achieved in 2016

Local police says 2000 and some people from the Madrid PP attended. They got 10000 people in a recent act in Madrid though.

[Former President tack50]

My prediction:

PSOE: 35%
PP: 22%
AA: 18%
Cs: 16%
Vox: 5%

Others: 4%

Sadly, Spain will join the rest of Europe in having a far right party. I was happy when we were one of the few remaining stronholds against that, now the title of "largest EU country without a far right party in parliament" will go to Romania

Everything is due to OKUPA Sanchez

Actually, there were polls with Rajoy as PM giving Vox 1 seat. Not as many of course, but the first poll with Vox getting seats happened right after the Catalonia UDI in November 2018 (Sociométrica-El Español). Sánchez becoming PM might have helped as well, but I'd certainly pick Catalonia as the spark that lit the fire

Plus, that theory actually doesn't make much sense. If you are a conservative angry at Sánchez, doesn't it make more sense to vote tactically for PP or Cs?

[BigSerg]

My prediction:

PSOE: 35%
PP: 22%
AA: 18%
Cs: 16%
Vox: 5%

Others: 4%

Sadly, Spain will join the rest of Europe in having a far right party. I was happy when we were one of the few remaining stronholds against that, now the title of "largest EU country without a far right party in parliament" will go to Romania

Everything is due to OKUPA Sanchez

Actually, there were polls with Rajoy as PM giving Vox 1 seat. Not as many of course, but the first poll with Vox getting seats happened right after the Catalonia UDI in November 2018 (Sociométrica-El Español). Sánchez becoming PM might have helped as well, but I'd certainly pick Catalonia as the spark that lit the fire

Plus, that theory actually doesn't make much sense. If you are a conservative angry at Sánchez, doesn't it make more sense to vote tactically for PP or Cs?

Actually I am an angry conservative with Sanchez hahaha and I will definitely vote for Vox, I do not currently live in Spain but I think the radicalism of the left causes us to do so too

[Velasco]

Actually I am an angry conservative with Sanchez hahaha and I will definitely vote for Vox, I do not currently live in Spain but I think the radicalism of the left causes us to do so too

I am Mexican American and follow the news of the case. My Mexican friends say that the migrants deliberately used the children as human shields and the general atmosphere is one of total rejection of the caravan.

You can write your opinions about Spanish politics even if you are Mexican American. Furthermore, Mexican Americans are specially welcomed if they want to discuss Spanish politics. In case you are Spaniard, you lied in the other thread discussing the San Diego-Tijuana border. Why? There's no need to lie.

[Mike88]

Not very good at predictions, but here goes:

31.8% PSOE-A
21.7% PP-A
19.5% AA
18.0% C's
  4.6% Vox
  1.2% PACMA
  0.6% AxSí
  2.6% Others

66.0% Turnout

[BigSerg]

Actually I am an angry conservative with Sanchez hahaha and I will definitely vote for Vox, I do not currently live in Spain but I think the radicalism of the left causes us to do so too

I am Mexican American and follow the news of the case. My Mexican friends say that the migrants deliberately used the children as human shields and the general atmosphere is one of total rejection of the caravan.

You can write your opinions about Spanish politics even if you are Mexican American. Furthermore, Mexican Americans are specially welcomed if they want to discuss Spanish politics. In case you are Spaniard, you lied in the other thread discussing the San Diego-Tijuana border. Why? There's no need to lie.

It may seem crazy, but I did not lie haha, my father is American, my mother was Spanish and I was born in Mexico. Technically, both at the same time, right? I'm currently writing from Mexico while I watch Amlo take over.

[Velasco]

Actually I am an angry conservative with Sanchez hahaha and I will definitely vote for Vox, I do not currently live in Spain but I think the radicalism of the left causes us to do so too

I am Mexican American and follow the news of the case. My Mexican friends say that the migrants deliberately used the children as human shields and the general atmosphere is one of total rejection of the caravan.

You can write your opinions about Spanish politics even if you are Mexican American. Furthermore, Mexican Americans are specially welcomed if they want to discuss Spanish politics. In case you are Spaniard, you lied in the other thread discussing the San Diego-Tijuana border. Why? There's no need to lie.

It may seem crazy, but I did not lie haha, my father is American, my mother was Spanish and I was born in Mexico. Technically, both at the same time, right? I'm currently writing from Mexico while I watch Amlo take over.

Then I assume that you have dual citizenship (US- Spanish), so you can vote. In that case it's alright. I had doubts when I read that post and I think they were reasonable.  

AMLO takes over by winning the popular vote. It's not a small thing

https://www.google.es/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/world/amlo-will-be-inaugurated-as-mexicos-president-vowing-to-transform-the-country/2018/11/30/d3014f4c-f267-11e8-99c2-cfca6fcf610c_story.html

Curious fact: AMLO invited the premier of Cantabria Miguel Ángel Revilla to his ranch and to attend his takeover. Both are friends since Revilla invited AMLO to visit the Spanish northern region, where the Mexican president has family roots

https://m.eldiario.es/norte/cantabria/politica/Revilla-acompana-Lopez-Obrador-posesion_0_840965975.html

[Velasco]

"Spain signs landmark agreements with UK over Gibraltar"

https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/11/30/inenglish/1543581262_378313.html

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The lack of public debate on immigration amplifies the message of VOX and Pablo Cased, complain experts and NGOs. Vox leaders repeat in campaign acts that immigrants are "an invasion that came to replace us". This message presenting immigration as a threat to "western values" and linking arrivals by sea with rise in delinquency is the only message that has been sent during the campaign, since the other parties barely said anything about this topic.

All parliamentary parties have proposals on immigration in their platforms, mainly on the topic of unaccompanied minors because it falls within the competences of regional government. The Cs platform, however, lacks of specific proposals and only has a paragraph with generic mentions to the migrant's drama. This has been a record-breaking year in what regards arrivals by sea.

The Andalusian government led by Susana Díaz has been particularly contentious on the issue of unaccompanied minors. As a result of its tenacity, the Spanish government issued a decree distributing 40 million of euros between the regions. Andalusia reclaimed as well solidarity from other regions in the distribution of minors. However, these demands disappeared in campaign in order to avoid criticism on the regional government's management.

The campaign of Ahora Andalucía has been introducing the coalition's proposals on immigration as the sad news of people disappeared at the Sea of Alboran came in. Teresa Rodríguez said in Almería that more resources must be devoted to fight the people traffickers, in order to not make their work easy. Rodríguez mentioned the case of a pregnant woman drowned in the sea three times during the campaign. 

PP candidate Juanma Moreno stands for an "orderly immigration", emphasizing that it's important to avoid to act with frivolity "as Pedro Sánchez did with the complicity of Susana Díaz". The tone of the Moreno's discourse is more moderate than the proclaims of national leader Pablo Casado, who has launched a parallel campaign overshadowing the Andalusian candidate.

Cs has said nothing on the topic, even avoiding to attend debates promoted by associations and NGOs. Finally the spokesperson of a Human Rights association says that Almeria is a province that would not have the wealth it possess without immigrants,  so going there with xenophobic messages is "lamentable"

https://elpais.com/politica/2018/11/28/actualidad/1543434990_381282.html

[Tender Branson]

Velasco:

Where can one find official results for todays regional election in Andalusia ?

When are the polls closing ?

Is there an "exit poll" and where ?

[Velasco]

Velasco:

Where can one find official results for todays regional election in Andalusia ?

When are the polls closing ?

Is there an "exit poll" and where ?

Provisional results can be found at the regional government's site. Media outlets (El País, El Mundo, whatever) will share the same results in real time. I'll post some links this evening, unless someone posts before me.

Polls close at 20:00 CET.

I think this year there won't be exit polls in Andalusia, since the regional broadcaster Canal Sur is not going to release one this time. Anyway vote counts in Spain are quite fast, so we will go to bed knowing the results.

[Tender Branson]

Thanks.

It seems this is the official results page:

https://www.resultadoseleccionesparlamentoandalucia2018.es/Inicio

"Avances de participación" means turnout. Turnout reports will come at 2pm and 6pm.

"Resultados provisionales" means preliminary results.

[crals]

Actually I am an angry conservative with Sanchez hahaha and I will definitely vote for Vox, I do not currently live in Spain but I think the radicalism of the left causes us to do so too

What is so radical about Sánchez?

[Former President tack50]

30% turnout in Andalucia at 14:00. This is down from 34% turnout in 2015. In theory low turnout should help PP and especially PSOE, to the detriment of AA and Cs.

[Mike88]

Turnout, until now, is 4% lower compared with 2015:

29.94% 2018 2pm
33.94% 2015 2pm

[Mike88]

30% turnout in Andalucia at 14:00. This is down from 34% turnout in 2015. In theory low turnout should help PP and especially PSOE, to the detriment of AA and Cs.

Yeah, turnout is especially lower in two PSOE bastions, Sevilla and Jaén. In both places, turnout is 6% lower compared with 2015. We'll see if the low turnout trend is confirmed at 6pm.

[seb_pard]

Results can't be released until 10:15 pm due to issues with some polling stations

https://www.eldiario.es/andalucia/MINUTO-Elecciones-andaluzas_13_841795814_22260.html

[Former President tack50]

Worth noting that while we won't get a proper exit poll, we will get a regular poll done during the final few days, done by GAD3 for ABC.

This is similar to the situation in the 2017 Catalan election, where there was no proper exit poll, but there was a regular poll done by La Vanguardia.

Also, worth noting that the lower turnout seems concentrated in rural areas, which means that it's PSOE voters the ones that aren't going out to vote. According to some that may be because olives are being picked up around this time of year, which means rural PSOE voters are at work now. It might also mean that the PSOE machines will get them to vote later.

However, if this stays the same at the next turnout reports, then PSOE should start being worried. They won't lose government anyways but it's certainly a bad sign.

[Mike88]

Turnout also down at 18:00, as 46.5% had cast a ballot. In 2015, at the same time, it was 51.4%

The final turnout figure will likely be something between 58-61%.

By provinces, turnout is down in all 8 provinces, but is higher in PP friendly ones than in PSOE provinces.

[Tender Branson]

Ugh ... only 56% will vote.

That is disappointing. I thought turnout would increase by quite a bit.

[Mike88]

According to El Mundo, both PSOE and PP, with the current turnout figures and on the ground reports, assume that Vox will get 7 or 8 seats in the Andalusian Parliament.

[Mike88]

Also, for anyone interested, live stream of Canal Sur election coverage: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ifh1-NazLJ8

[Mike88]

GAD3 poll, not an exit poll:



Coalition scenarios: (55 for majority)

PP+C's: 41-47 seats
PP+C's+Vox: 49-57 seats
PSOE+C's: 55-59 seats
PSOE+AA: 54-58 seats

[Former President tack50]

Wow, Vox above even IU 2015 numbers!

I always thought their ceiling would be becoming "Right wing IU". I guess not, 10% in Andalucia means around 11-12% nationally (extrapolating from their EU result in 2014, so not 100% accurate), almost what Cs currently has

[Tender Branson]

GAD3 poll, not an exit poll:



Coalition scenarios: (55 for majority)

PP+C's: 41-47 seats
PP+C's+Vox: 49-57 seats
PSOE+C's: 55-59 seats
PSOE+AA: 54-58 seats

If this were only the actual results ... it would be close to my prediction.

But the actual results will likely look different.