Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain]

[Ronnie]

Obama is running away with this election.

[Ronnie]

McCainmentum!

[Ronnie]

Obama has reached a peak.  I wouldn't be surprised if the race was Obama+4 at the end of this week.

[Ronnie]

C'mon Obama, FALL UNDER 50%!

[Ronnie]

Obama is up by only 3 in the second likely voter model!

[Ronnie]

I'll take it that Obama is up by 4 nationally.

[Ronnie]

Things seem to have stayed the same after the debate.  It seems to be Obama + 4 nationally.

[Ronnie]

Obama: 50 (nc)
McCain: 42 (-1)

[Ronnie]

[Ronnie]

How much I'd love for us to lose the election by just a couple points.  Doubt it's gonna happen, though.

[Ronnie]

Bleh

[Ronnie]

Bleh

Don't be so downcast, Ronnie, McCain has closed in on Obama's lead on the likely voter, traditional model. If you're feeling down take a look at Zogby

Dave

Yippee, it's probably statistical noise.

In any case, I would be very content if McCain would be able to lose by a couple points, just so people like Gordon Smith and Norm Coleman might have a chance.  I have written off McCain actually winning this thing, though.

[Ronnie]

Bleh

Don't be so downcast, Ronnie, McCain has closed in on Obama's lead on the likely voter, traditional model. If you're feeling down take a look at Zogby

Dave

Yippee, it's probably statistical noise.

In any case, I would be very content if McCain would be able to lose by a couple points, just so people like Gordon Smith and Norm Coleman might have a chance.  I have written off McCain actually winning this thing, though.

Why?

Because McCain is sucking in polls, and I don't think he will be able to make up the margin in 8 days.

[Ronnie]

Dave, don't get pessimistic yet.  When Obama slips under 50%, you should worry.

[Ronnie]

It's over.  I kind of regret voting for McCain now.

[Ronnie]

It's over.  I kind of regret voting for McCain now.

Why? Just because your candidate might not win doesn't mean you should just go along with the crowd and vote for Obama. Sheesh! That's the most pathetic thing you've said in a long time, Ronnie.

Torie has convinced me just a teency bit that McCain wouldn't be too credible.  I don't like his campaign message currently, since it has moved fully to desperation, with the robocalls and all.

I despise Obama, but now I don't think I will be too upset when he is declared president-elect.

[Ronnie]

It's over.  I kind of regret voting for McCain now.

Why? Just because your candidate might not win doesn't mean you should just go along with the crowd and vote for Obama. Sheesh! That's the most pathetic thing you've said in a long time, Ronnie.

Torie has convinced me just a teency bit that McCain wouldn't be too credible.  I don't like his campaign message currently, since it has moved fully to desperation, with the robocalls and all.

I despise Obama, but now I don't think I will be too upset when he is declared president-elect.

I have a lot of respect for Torie, but I disagree with him that Obama is less risky than McCain. Neither one really knows the economy, but Obama has the potential to really create a mess if he allows the Democrats to raise taxes. Hell, we don't know if it's going to be for those of us who make $250k, $200k, $150k, or $120k. Everyone keeps giving us different answers. The fact that he gets a free pass on this issue is really pissing me off.

Part of me will be happy when he gets elect so the Democrats will finally get blamed for the mess they helped create when the economy goes into the crapper in 2009, but another part of me sees what long term damage Obama might do to the country. Bernie Frank said it himself, "There are a lot of rich people that we can tax a lot."

Note: I still support McCain; my support is just a whole lot more mild than before.

I kind of have a dueling political ideology.  One part of me is a hard line capitalist, who favors very low income taxes across the board; and another part of me is a moderate populist, that favors increasing foreign aid to countries in poverty.  It is tough to enthusiastically support a candidate who pandered to the far right wing of the Republican party, instead of sticking with his "maverick" views of the past.

My instinct says that if Obama is elected, he won't side with the extremists of his party, i.e. raising taxes, if the economy is crap.  Remember that Obama would really want to be reelected, and he would do anything that he can to not send us in a depression.  He has economic advisers, and I doubt they would advise him to raise taxes on anyone if the GDP plummets 2% in a quarter (which is looking to be increasingly likely).  The pressure is on the Democratic congress -- if they can handle no taxes on the rich for a short while.

My fear is that if McCain will be elected, there will be very much gridlock.  The silver lining to this is that gridlock is a WHOLE lot better than any kind of agenda the Democrats will implement.  This is pretty much the sole reason I support McCain; I want to have divided government, and he is my last best hope (though, not for long, as it seems).  I would likely be strongly leaning toward Obama now if the GOP was in control.

[Ronnie]

I don't know who's right -- Rasmussen or Gallup.  I guess we have to wait until election day.

But yeah, this election is over.

[Ronnie]

Wasn't Gallup horrendous in 2004 anyway?

No, they nailed the national numbers in '04 in the traditional likely voter model.  The state numbers were very shaky, but they stopped doing those anyway.

[Ronnie]

I don't think Obama will win by this much, but it's possible.