December SUSA Senate Approval polls ...partially

[Joe Republic]

Presumably due to their resources being spread out to cover their new 50-state 2008 tracker, or perhaps for another reason, SurveyUSA have only released approval polls for sixteen states this month.

Note that these polls apply to senators currently in office, and not those elected last month.

So, here they are:


Senior senators

Junior senators

http://www.surveyusa.com/50StateTracking.html

[Adlai Stevenson]

Kerry really needs to sort his affairs out in Massachusetts before he considers running for President.  If he does run, I could easily imagine him having a primary challenge.  Most of the Democratic Congressional delagation were ambitious for his seat in 2004 and they do not often come up in Massachusetts.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Wow, Hillary has some killer ratings, 74-24. She's at 76% approval for each of the younger 2 age groups. Conservatives actually approve of her 51-46 (which means that Hillary is more popular with NY conservatives than Bush). Pro-lifers are 62-36 for her.

As for California, Boxer is almost as popular as Feinstein now, and more popular with some groups: under 35, Hispanics, Asians, Democrats, Liberals, Union members, and the bay area.

[InsideTheBeltway]

Those Senators up for re-election in 2008:

Approval/Disapproval

Jeff Sessions (R-AL) 56%/33%
Tom Harkin (D-IA) 55%/36%
Pat Roberts (R-KS) 52%/36%
Mitch McConnell (R-KY) 50%/42%
John Kerry (D-MA) 43%/53%
Norm Coleman (R-MN) 49%/42%
Pete Domenici (R-NM) 65%/26%
Gordon Smith (R-OR) 56%/33%
John Cornyn (R-TX) 47%/39%
John Warner (R-VA) 57%/34%

A few thoughts:  Most everyone from this group seems to be in pretty good shape.  Even senators that have been mentioned as potential targets like Smith and Harkin have pretty solid numbers.  The only senators below 50% are Cornyn, Kerry, and Coleman.  Cornyn and Kerry are safe because of the states they represent, while Coleman will obviously be a top Dem target.  Somwhat surprising that McConell's numbers are so lackluster. Domenici and Warner both seem quite safe should they run again.

[Moooooo]

If Kerry decides not to run, which Democrat becomes Senator?

[Joe Republic]

If Kerry decides not to run, which Democrat becomes Senator?

The conventional wisdom appears to be Ed Markey.

[InsideTheBeltway]

If Kerry decides not to run, which Democrat becomes Senator?

I think I remember seeing somewhere that Marty Meehan has an astronomical amount of cash on hand.

[Verily]

If Kerry decides not to run, which Democrat becomes Senator?

The conventional wisdom appears to be Ed Markey.

Markey is the most likely. Meehan and Frank are also possible.

Interesting to note that George Allen actually still has a positive net approval rating (+1) even now that he has lost reelection.

Also, looking at the tracking graph for, for example, Jim Talent shows us that Talent had above a 50% approval rating for the entire campaign save one poll in May 2006 but still lost. Losing reelection plunged him to net -17. Anyone with an approval ratng less than 60% can be vulnerable in an election nearly two years in the future.

[Joe Republic]

Actually, I've just realized that it won't be a Democrat taking that seat in 2008; it'll be Joel Mahoney instead.