PPP Ohio/Wisconsin poll preview

[Tender Branson]

Wow Newt's favorability in Wisconsin- with Republicans- is 29/45!!! Maybe unusually bad there because of Ryan spat but wow

Newt's overall favorability in Wisconsin is 15/67. Palin's favorability is 17 points higher

Tommy Thompson statewide fav is 42/42. His formidability is highly exaggerated

There are 7 Republicans polling at double digits in Wisconsin, good sign of how wide open things are with Huckabee out

Link

[Tender Branson]

There are 7 Republicans polling at double digits in Wisconsin, good sign of how wide open things are with Huckabee out

Romney, Paul, Palin, Cain, Bachmann, Pawlenty (and Ryan in a seperate matchup) ?

[Bull Moose Base]

I'll guess Gingrich is in double digits even with those bad favorables and Cain is not.  But I still think he'll drop out by this Fall.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

I'll guess Gingrich is in double digits even with those bad favorables and Cain is not.  But I still think he'll drop out by this Fall.

Predictions on who is in what position?

First, Gingrich is probably in the double digits. Second, I heavily doubt Wisconsin is a strong Paul state, so he is probably in fourth or fifth. Third, I would imagine Cain and Romney are doing well.

[Bull Moose Base]

This out today?  My prediction would be Romney, Palin and if they polled them, Ryan and Walker, are clustered within a couple points near the top while Paul, Gingrich, Bachmann are low double digit range.  That'd be 7.  Pawlenty, I'd be surprised if he's known enough to be much higher than 10% if  that, even though he's been running for president for over a year and western Wisconsin gets Twin Cities media.  I don't think Cain has gotten enough exposure yet to poll doubles.  Maybe he's around 5%?

EDIT: I forgot Giuliani.  If they polled him, he's one of the double digits.

[pbrower2a]

PPP polled Wisconsin and Ohio this weekend, and we should expect to see some results. Of course, one House seat will be up for grabs today (but in New York state), and even if it is one seat it is one that portends either no change in 2012 or that the GOP has its work cut out in 2012.

I have been paying little attention to Republican primary matchups because they are statistically anarchic with sudden entries and exits. But general and special elections? They are definitive and fairly easy to analyze.    

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

This out today?  My prediction would be Romney, Palin and if they polled them, Ryan and Walker, are clustered within a couple points near the top while Paul, Gingrich, Bachmann are low double digit range.  That'd be 7.  Pawlenty, I'd be surprised if he's known enough to be much higher than 10% if  that, even though he's been running for president for over a year and western Wisconsin gets Twin Cities media.  I don't think Cain has gotten enough exposure yet to poll doubles.  Maybe he's around 5%?

EDIT: I forgot Giuliani.  If they polled him, he's one of the double digits.

Yeah, that sounds reasonable. Hopefully they will release the poll soon so we can find out.

[Mr. Morden]

Pawlenty, I'd be surprised if he's known enough to be much higher than 10% if  that, even though he's been running for president for over a year and western Wisconsin gets Twin Cities media.

Pawlenty was already at 10% in Wisconsin in February, in their last poll there (in the matchup without Ryan):

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=132956.0

[Bull Moose Base]

Pawlenty, I'd be surprised if he's known enough to be much higher than 10% if  that, even though he's been running for president for over a year and western Wisconsin gets Twin Cities media.

Pawlenty was already at 10% in Wisconsin in February, in their last poll there (in the matchup without Ryan):

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=132956.0

Hm.  Well ppp is also tweeting that they polled only 8 candidates and only Huntsman got <10% (2%).  So probably Walker and Ryan were not polled and looks like I underestimated Pawlenty and Cain.

[King]

It would be nice if PPP actually published their polls instead of tweeting them one line at time.

[JewCon]

lol. Newt.

[Mr. Morden]

When are they actually going to release this poll?  In the meantime, any guesses as to who will be leading, and what their %age will be?

They've also now tweeted that their Ohio poll has Cain 11 points ahead of Huntsman and 7 points ahead of Pawlenty.  I guess that means that Cain's at least at 11% in Ohio....unless Huntsman has a negative %age.

[King]

Seems PPP is no longer interested in releasing polls as much as it enjoys tweeting random tweets about the polls they've done.  According to their Wisconsin tweet, Cain is in double digits there and now:

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Of course, Huntsman could have no support at all, but Cain still has at least 11 percent.

[Yelnoc]

See guys?  I'm not a fool.  Cain is going somewhere.

[feeblepizza]

See guys?  I'm not a fool.  Cain is going somewhere.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

When are they actually going to release this poll?  In the meantime, any guesses as to who will be leading, and what their %age will be?

They've also now tweeted that their Ohio poll has Cain 11 points ahead of Huntsman and 7 points ahead of Pawlenty.  I guess that means that Cain's at least at 11% in Ohio....unless Huntsman has a negative %age.

Huntsman probably has around 3%, so Cain has around, eh, 14%

Yeah, ~14% (margin of error is 2%), and I am sticking to it.

[Bull Moose Base]

This and Ohio should probably be on the primary poll baby boards.  

Big loser looks to be Pawlenty.  If Cain is up 7 on him, he can't really point to lack of familiarity with him as the explanation for the lack of enthusiasm for him.  Maybe this primary will end up more of a populist vs. establishment fight with Romney the latter and whoever of Cain, Bachmann and Palin outlasts the others as the Tea Party favorite.

[Mr. Morden]

This and Ohio should probably be on the primary poll baby boards.

Disagree, because there's no actual poll release here.  It's just speculation about the poll, following some teasers by PPP.  Better to keep actual poll releases on the poll boards.

However, I have merged the two threads, as there's no reason to have two separate such threads.

[King]

Sorry, Morden, I didn't see we were already talking Ohio in this thread so I made a new one.  But I agree that previews and blog articles by pollsters (or in this case, status updates) don't belong in the poll board.

This and Ohio should probably be on the primary poll baby boards.  

Big loser looks to be Pawlenty.  If Cain is up 7 on him, he can't really point to lack of familiarity with him as the explanation for the lack of enthusiasm for him.  Maybe this primary will end up more of a populist vs. establishment fight with Romney the latter and whoever of Cain, Bachmann and Palin outlasts the others as the Tea Party favorite.

Pawlenty definitely has a problem here.  Cain's only public exposure was the debate between him, Pawlenty, Paul, and Santorum.  If only Cain is getting a bounce, it means he really blew T-Paw out of the war.