NY-09, Special Election Thread

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What sort of time do the results start to come in?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Polls close at 9 PM Eastern.

[Wonkish1]

After playing around with the 2010 Weiner/Turner numbers and '08 Presidential numbers, I think Weprin's going to have to get about 54-55% in Queens and 39-40% in Brooklyn to win. Of course, if turnout is down in Queens relative to Brooklyn (it was about 70-30 in both of the previous elections), it gets significantly harder for Weprin to pull off a win.

Well you have the right idea I think you need to polarize the numbers a little bit more. The numbers coming out of some circles is that Welprin needs 57-58% in Queens and needs to do better than ~37% in Brooklyn. That's how bad they think he's going to do in Brooklyn.

The exact terminology is that unless Welprin starts putting up more than 60% in Forest Hills, Rego Park, Fresh Meadows, and Kew Gardens he is going to have a rough night.

[Phony Moderate]

The Democratic party "We waste your money and resources"

and "now are own"....YAY!!

What?

Talking about how Dems are blowing money on a race that wont have much consequence after redistricting and how they are putting way to many people at the polls that should be door knocking.

Its interesting to watch the Dems being horrible stewards of their own election resources and money. I guess it was bound to happen sooner or later given how bad they are with other peoples money in government.

Well, specifically, I was referring to the "now are own". It didn't come across as coherent English to me. But I'll give you benefit of the doubt, as you didn't refer to the Democratic Party as the "Democrat Party", as certain other Republican posters on here often do.

And no offense, but it's kind of ironic for someone with an R avatar to criticise fiscal irresponsibility.

[J. J.]

Reuters reported a "large" turnout this AM.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/13/us-usa-congress-weiner-idUSTRE78C0VL20110913

[Napoleon]

52% Turner
47% Weprin

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Results should be here:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2011/by_county/NY_US_House_0913.html

Is there something wrong with this link? It leads to a map of the US that shows member press outfits by state.

[J. J.]

Results should be here:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2011/by_county/NY_US_House_0913.html

Is there something wrong with this link? It leads to a map of the US that shows member press outfits by state.

Maybe they have not started posting the results yet?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

The results page should still come up with no numbers, even hours before results start coming in.

[Marston]

I'm calling an 'upset':

Weprin: 51%
Turner 48%

(based on nothing, really). I just feel like being out of the norm, I guess.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2011/by_county/NY_US_House_0913.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS


He left off the question mark and everything afterwards. I found the WI page from august and copy and pasted it on.

[cinyc]

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2011/by_county/NY_US_House_0913.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS


He left off the question mark and everything afterwards. I found the WI page from august and copy and pasted it on.

I did the same thing and was in the process of posting the link when your message came up.

Only the AP will have results (or from their media partners).  Neither the New York City nor State board of elections post preliminary tallies.   Polls close in 40 minutes.

[Wonkish1]

Anybody know of any news or results sources that will get us a little deeper peek??

[cinyc]

Anybody know of any news or results sources that will get us a little deeper peek??

Read my last post.  New York City BoE doesn't do election night results.  The AP tally is it, unless a media partner like the New York Times goes deeper than county level (which I doubt).

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

That is the problem with single and double county CD's. Don't have much in terms of bellweathers to go by etc etc. The best you can do is create a formula based on assumptions of how Brooklyn and Queens will perform and what performances in them equal what performances district wide.

[Wonkish1]

A few did in WI for the Senate Recalls, but it just comes in a 1 or 2 time news release.

"Within Milwaukee county Whitefish Bay and Shorewood have already reported, the only precincts left within Milwaukee county are in Glendale and Brown Deer" meaning that the Dem percentage lead in Milwaukee county will fall a little bit by the end of the night.

Or

"Pasch outperformed her 08 Whitefish Bay margin by 200 votes."

Any news source you recommend for those type of releases???

[Seattle]

I'll go 49-49, because I'm a chicken.

[Wonkish1]

If recent election reporting is any kind of barometer I bet that east Queens will report a few early followed by all of west Queens and then the rest of east Queens at the end.

Brooklyn is anybodies guess.

[Wonkish1]

If that plays out then the Dems will look good right away in Queens, followed by the vote tally getting much closer as the remaining Dem precincts wait to be the precinct that puts Welprin over the top. When that doesn't materialize they will eventually just release in mass.

[cinyc]

A few did in WI for the Senate Recalls, but it just comes in a 1 or 2 time news release.

"Within Milwaukee county Whitefish Bay and Shorewood have already reported, the only precincts left within Milwaukee county are in Glendale and Brown Deer" meaning that the Dem percentage lead in Milwaukee county will fall a little bit by the end of the night.

Or

"Pasch outperformed her 08 Whitefish Bay margin by 200 votes."

Any news source you recommend for those type of releases???

Considering that none of the New York papers or TV stations even have a link to results 15 minutes before the polls close, no.  IIRC, Milwaukee County reported which precincts were in and out on their website.  New York City doesn't do that.  This election has probably gotten more play with partisans outside NYC than in NYC.  You can always check the New York Times' website, though - something might pop up.


You can read about the antiquated way New York reports preliminary results to the AP here.  It literally involves the NYPD.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Let the race...end, actually. Polls about to close.

[Progressive]

POLLS CLOSED! Results TIME BABY

[Niemeyerite]

Polls have closed.
I hope Weprin wins, but I'll say it's 51-48 Turner...

[Wonkish1]

I'm predicting it closer than some are saying. 50.5 to 49 Turner.

[Talleyrand]

52.5% Turner, 47.5% Weprin.