Quebec General Election 2012 (4th September)

[RogueBeaver]

Marois wants a tactical alliance with QS. Embarrassing when you make overtures to splinter groups.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/340510/marois-vise-une-grande-coalition-souverainiste

[Hatman 🍁]

The Beauce area seems ripe for some sort of right wing party. I suppose CAQ will win there though, and a Quebec Conservative party wouldn't appeal to them in the same way?

[RogueBeaver]

The Beauce area seems ripe for some sort of right wing party. I suppose CAQ will win there though, and a Quebec Conservative party wouldn't appeal to them in the same way?

ROQ generally is ripe for the federal Tories, just as it was for Unionists in the old days. PCQ could do well in the Beauce, but only as a unified right-wing party headed by serious people. Which this isn't.

[Hatman 🍁]

I wouldn't classify the rest of Quebec as politically homogenous. The Chaudiere-Appalaches region is quite Libertarian (strongest in the Beauce). The rest of Quebec is generally left wing, except on certain issues (health care and immigration for example). Of course a Libertarian leaning party such as the ADQ and CAQ would be able to unite these two parts, but the Tories (and the NDP) can only do well in certain parts. Luckily for the NDP, their are more parts that can appeal to them than the Tories. However, if the Tories get a better leader, they can win these NDP areas. But, they don't need to. 

[RogueBeaver]

ROQ will be a tossup this time around, that's for sure. Montreal is solidly a duopoly with Pelquistes dominating.

[RogueBeaver]

More bad headlines for Marois.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/pq-riding-executives-see-duceppe-as-party-saviour/article2307220/

[RogueBeaver]

Weird: the anti-Marois forces are eager to pull the trigger, but many of them don't want a Duceppe coronation.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/dossiers/crise-au-pq/201201/18/01-4487245-mouvement-concerte-contre-pauline-marois.php

[RogueBeaver]

I won't believe that Marois will be deposed till I see it. Especially given how badly the PQ is fractured on this leadership question. (Just read the first article's comments section)

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/340567/duceppe-ne-fait-pas-l-unanimite

Also: Bou-Bou's former chief of staff goes Caquiste.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201201/19/01-4487474-les-liberaux-minimisent-le-passage-de-mario-bertrand-a-la-caq.php

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/340518/pas-de-discussions-formelles-avec-le-pq-soutient-francoise-david

[Colbert]

I wrote something about the last election in Quebec on my blog. Because it was wrote in french, I use here google traduct for give you the english version. I hope the translation would not being awful.

the failure of left nationalism in Quebec

"We were defeated by money and the ethnic vote" said Jacques Parizeau on the evening of the tragedy (for him) of October 1995, when Quebec try once again to commit suicide.

But those suicides were not urprising. In response to the stifling Catholic conservatism, but timidly Quebecist, of the reign of the National Union of Duplessis, a logic swing of the pendulum, the young nationalism of the 60' has built on the left, time or ,naively, the independence movements were often associated with Marxist guerrillas in Latin America (Guevara, Castro, etc.)..

Of course, this nationalism was a tactic for Marxists, but the moderate left Quebec have believed on it, like René Lévesque. Vision, all Habermasian, of constitutional nationalism, which is the embodiment of purest, most honest, Republican nationalism, absolutely detached from the history, land and people, could only find the PQ impotent, ideologically to reject immigration, the very one that will ensure the defeat of an independent Quebec in 1995, arithmetically speaking.

 

Therefore the failure of the Bloc Québécois in the federal election makes sense. AS voting for the left, Quebecers voted for more frank than the BQ / PQ, namely for Jack Layton's NDP.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

What is your blog?

[RogueBeaver]

Marois recruits a star candidate.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201201/19/01-4487532-pauline-marois-recrute-lecologiste-daniel-breton.php

I'M NOT GOING ANYWHERE!!!

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/dossiers/crise-au-pq/201201/20/01-4487779-pauline-marois-entend-rester-jusquau-bout.php

[RogueBeaver]

Next up in the anti-Marois barrage: Landry and the unions. But not even caucus can unseat her against her will- only a membership vote can do that.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/340796/duel-decisif-entre-marois-et-duceppe

I agree wholeheartedly with this editorial. Peqs are falling into the Pelciste trap of leadership drama (which is this case is mostly unjustified IMO) being a substitute for resolving longstanding structural issues.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/340766/marois-duceppe-tirer-la-ligne

[RogueBeaver]

Failed coup?

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/dossiers/crise-au-pq/201201/21/01-4488066-pq-un-putsch-rate.php?utm_categorieinterne=trafficdrivers&utm_contenuinterne=cyberpresse_les-plus-populaires-title_article_ECRAN1POS3

[RogueBeaver]

ADQ formally votes for merger, so CAQ now has a caucus.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/340816/les-membres-de-l-adq-enterinent-la-fusion-de-leur-parti-avec-la-caq

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Whoo!

[RogueBeaver]

Duceppe is now in permanent retirement due to an ethics scandal.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/in-wake-of-probe-report-duceppe-says-hes-finished-with-active-politics/article2310851/

Legault will be running against Scott McKay in L'Assomption- Parizeau's old riding.

National Assembly standings:

PLQ: 64
PQ: 44
CAQ: 9
IND: 4
ON: 2
QS: 1
VAC: 1

[Hatman 🍁]

Duceppe is now in permanent retirement due to an ethics scandal.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/in-wake-of-probe-report-duceppe-says-hes-finished-with-active-politics/article2310851/

Legault will be running against Scott McKay in L'Assomption- Parizeau's old riding.

Should win it, as the ADQ has held it before.

BTW, I love separatists with very English names. Lol  "Scott McKay"

[RogueBeaver]

Why? The PQ has held that riding, which formerly belonged to Parizeau, since 1989. '07 was a fluke. In a tight 2007-style race which we're now seeing it should be rated as Tossup.

On another note: some Peqs are worried about ceding most of north-central Montreal to QS if they somehow negotiate an electoral pact.

[Hatman 🍁]

Why? The PQ has held that riding, which formerly belonged to Parizeau, since 1989. '07 was a fluke. In a tight 2007-style race which we're now seeing it should be rated as Tossup.

On another note: some Peqs are worried about ceding most of north-central Montreal to QS if they somehow negotiate an electoral pact.

CAQ should win most of the 2007 ADQ seats, especially the one where their popular leader is running.

[RogueBeaver]

Eh. McKay is a staunch Marois supporter, BTW. Used to lead the provincial Greens, she personally recruited him to run in '08.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

I actually think the new PCQ could take votes in the Quebec City area, and could bring the CAQ down "to size" in QC, compared to the ADQ, for which it was their best region. Meanwhile the CAQ would be up (compared to the ADQ) in Montreal, leaving them with a balanced result across the province.

Also, graphic pack! Use for whatever.



I find it a bit amusing that each large party has a small party alternative.

For those who don't think the Greens and Liberals are alternatives to one another I say 2 things:
1 - Read the policy book of each federal party
and
2 - Look at the vote patterns for PVQ, they are very anglo, like the PLQ. Where one does well, the other does well.

[RogueBeaver]

We'll have to wait for a poll which includes the PCQ. I wouldn't be surprised if Charest won another minority.

[RogueBeaver]

New poll: CAQ 31, PLQ 29, PQ 21, QS 11. If anyone wants to plug this into their model...

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201201/23/01-4488697-sondage-marois-nest-pas-au-bout-de-ses-peines.php?utm_categorieinterne=trafficdrivers&utm_contenuinterne=cyberpresse_B4_manchettes_231_accueil_POS4

[lilTommy]

New poll: CAQ 31, PLQ 29, PQ 21, QS 11. If anyone wants to plug this into their model...

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201201/23/01-4488697-sondage-marois-nest-pas-au-bout-de-ses-peines.php?utm_categorieinterne=trafficdrivers&utm_contenuinterne=cyberpresse_B4_manchettes_231_accueil_POS4

What i find hilarious... is the 68% of pequiste think she should stay and 65% of all of Quebecers thinks she should go...

Everyone up but CAQ, is the shine rubbing off? now that they have unelected MNA's people will see what CAQ is all about. That could be good or bad for this new party

[MaxQue]

Oh, a poll by the Liberal spin newspaper.