Georgia's Very Own Megathread! (v2)

[GeorgiaModerate]

And a new day dawns in Georgia politics.

[GeorgiaModerate]

This is beyond a joke how Georgia Republicans are trying to deny voting rights and nobody here seems to be genuinely outraged about it.  Yet, Andrew Cuomo makes some silly comment and it generates tons of comments.

You think this might have something to do with making it more difficult for Democrats to vote?

https://twitter.com/srl/status/1030544243658514433

This especially annoys me because of all the crap from the 'both sides are equally bad' idiots that Republicans aren't really authoritarians and really do believe in democracy.

It's a majority black county.  It's run by Republicans?

County officials aren't responsible for the closings. They were orchestrated by... SoS Brian Kemp!

Where do you get this information?   

Every article I have seen on this says it is a decision of the county elections board. The huffpo article even says that Kemp opposes the idea.

This is correct.  It would be out of character for Kemp to be behind something like this.  He's done some good things during his term as SoS to help expand voting, such as implementing AVR. 

[GeorgiaModerate]

There's a very plausible explanation here which is that they are being super careful about not being sued for an ADA violation, and they are not willing to expend any more effort than necessary in order to do come up with a better solution.

There may be a more partisan / factional motivation here, but it isn't required either for explaining this action nor for saying it's something they shouldn't do.

That's true, but it's equally plausible that their primary motivation is the partisan one, and ADA compliance is a conveniently legitimate excuse.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I just had a beautiful dream that a new AJC poll had Abrams up 48-44 and she was winning 12% of self-identified Conservatives. Ugh.

Dreaming about polls is perhaps a sign that you need a break from politics.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/xenocryptsite/status/1032631231937236992

[GeorgiaModerate]

Happy ending, perhaps:

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[GeorgiaModerate]

Happy ending: Elections board votes down plan to close polling places

[GeorgiaModerate]

Because Stacey Abram's policies are better than Kemp's?

Exactly.  She'll be a better governor for Georgia.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Can Abrams even get 30% of the white vote?

Can Kemp even get 6% of the black vote?

Will Vinings and the Republican Atlanta suburbs vote for Abrams?

These questions, and many others, will be answered on the next episode of Soap!

[GeorgiaModerate]

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[GeorgiaModerate]

It is possible Democrats could win:

GA Governor-Stacey Abrams
GA Lt. Governor-Sarah Riggs Amico
GA Secretary of State-John Barrow, white moderate Democrat

http://www.barrowforgeorgia.com/

Rise of the New South Democrats post-Blue Dog era?

The odds are against all of them winning, but it's not implausible.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Could Georgia Democrats win control of the Georgia Legislature?

Is there any good rural Democrats that could win seats?

Both houses have almost 2-1 Republican majorities.  There is zero chance of flipping either chamber, although I expect the Democrats will make gains in both.

[GeorgiaModerate]

They’re a self hating white (e.g. BRTD)

I don't think BRTDs exist in Georgia.

Uh...are you familiar with Atlanta at all? Or even Athens.

Addendum: BaconKing said he once had a girlfriend who literally prayed over a bag of weed "thanking God for the blessings" before smoking it. so yeah.

I am not. But you are very, uh...unique.

Perhaps. But Atlanta is a very "hip" city.

I mean does this sound like country music? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=adOwtydsiro
Or this? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=maihcCjGQe0
Or this? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZHI70KOwEBA

Also go take a look at how Decatur voted and then consider it's over 70% white.

There's a T-shirt that reads "Atlanta: an island in a sea of rednecks."

[GeorgiaModerate]

Sandra Deal (wife of Gov. Nathan Deal):

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[GeorgiaModerate]

Just got a robocall from Josh McCall, the Democratic House candidate in my district (GA-9), promoting his town hall in Cumming this Thursday evening.  He's not going to win (the district PVI is R+31), but this is the first outreach I've ever gotten here from a Democratic candidate below the statewide level.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I'm surprised that there hasn't been more polls on Kemp vs. Abrams.

There should be polls daily from now on til Nov. 6

I wonder if Abrams' appeal to Atlanta suburban voters could cause Barry Loudermilk to lose. (Vinings area)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barry_Loudermilk

Abrams' suburban appeal could cost: Loudermilk, Handel, Woodall, and Austin Scott their jobs this election day.

That would be a boom to GA Democrats.

Anyway, none of the House incumbents are going to lose.

Where do you see Bourdeaux's chances of an upset?  (i.e. what percentage chance)

[GeorgiaModerate]

A post on the 2020 board reminded me of the straw poll we conducted at this year's Whitfield Kennedy-Carter Dinner. Approximately 150 people voted in the straw poll; here are the results:

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The link to the 2020 post is broken.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Apparently, in Georgia's neighbor to the south, their Democratic nominee is leading in a poll by a margin of 5%.  If that's the case, Abrams has to be leading by 2-3% or so.

I wouldn't read too much into that.  IMO DeSantis is a much more extreme candidate than Kemp.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Alright, so I've finished my first draft of Georgia 2018 Abrams win benchmarks. I've decided for the time being to settle on a nominal win rather than a majority win, simply because I'm not sure where else it's feasible to stretch the numbers to get to 50%. Nevertheless, I did manage to get Abrams to 49.3% when all was said and done; in the end, this is equivalent to closing 223k of the 262k deficit Carter had in 2014. Obviously the easiest way for Abrams to get a majority with these figures as a baseline is if Kemp's raw turnout is lower than Deal's was in 2014.

I'm open to suggestions or recommendations in some parts of the state. Below is a map and the list with each county's benchmarks. I'll probably turn this into an interactive map in the next day or two.

County-by-County Benchmarks (2014 and 2018 Results + Swings)

So here are the interactive maps in case anybody's interested:


Abrams - County Plurality Benchmarks (Margin)

Abrams - County Plurality Benchmarks (Swing)

Insufficient. Your figures don't get Abrams to 50% plus one, so the race goes to a runoff which she almost inevitably loses.

He acknowledged that in the initial post:

"I've decided for the time being to settle on a nominal win rather than a majority win, simply because I'm not sure where else it's feasible to stretch the numbers to get to 50%. Nevertheless, I did manage to get Abrams to 49.3% when all was said and done"

[GeorgiaModerate]

Long AJC article on each candidate's electoral strategy: https://politics.myajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/georgia-candidates-for-governor-have-mapped-own-paths-victory/bELVHefhGsRnMxm6VRCUCN/.  Some highlights:

Kemp:

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Abrams:

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[GeorgiaModerate]

One way for Abrams to get 80% of 2016 is to have literally any presence whatsoever on the uGA campus. I've seeen farrrr more kemp stuff in just today alone

Why does john barrow have more outreach on campus than abram

I'm going to keep making these annoying posts until I see any signs of life for the abrams campaign on campus

I'm still waiting for any kind of outreach too.  Maybe after Labor Day we'll see something.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/02/us/politics/kemp-georgia-abrams.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

Kemp’s new ad is actually pretty good. I think it’s probablt too late for him to attempt to pivot to the center. Abrams has a two month head start in that area on him

Yeah, it's not a bad ad at all.  What bothers me is that I've now seen it a bunch of times, generally during sports broadcasts, and I haven't seen a single Abrams ad since the primary.  Nor have I gotten a mailer, or a phone call, or an email, or a knock on the door.  Nothing.  

We keep hearing about what a great campaign Abrams is running.  But where is it?  They're clearly not reaching the north suburban voters like me, and according to DTC they're not reaching the UGA campus either.  Yeah, Abrams has my vote regardless, so the outreach isn't really needed in my case.  But what about the other people in my (increasingly diverse and gentrifying) neighborhood?  I'm sure there are potential votes for Abrams there, but they're not going to turn into actual votes without some effort by the campaign.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/SPotterGA/status/1037767974030073857

[GeorgiaModerate]

Harry Enten thinks Abrams could win in a run-off. This seems to make sense abstractly (drop-off from a Presidential election to a runoff is not the same as drop-off from a midterm to a runoff). But does it make sense in practice, my dear Gawgans?

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1037832535286456320

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I think the analysis is reasonable and this is certainly plausible, but not a sure thing.  I do agree that black turnout wouldn't drop off drastically in the runoff like some people automatically assume will happen in Georgia, but I don't know if it would actually benefit Abrams. 

[GeorgiaModerate]

I just got a live caller poll from the Abrams campaign (identified at the end of the call) with these questions:

1. Do you plan to vote in the November general election?

2. Who do you plan to vote for: Democrat Stacey Abrams or Republican Brian Kemp?

3. Which is the most important issue to you: health care, the economy, Georgia's roads, or <something else>?  (I said health care.)

4. How certain are you to vote in November: absolutely, somewhat, or not very?