UK General Election, 2017 - Election Day and Results Thread

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I mean, yes, it is. Al or another British poster can correct me if I'm wrong, but, but I really think it boils down to the fact that class is still, if not the, at least one of the defining factors of British political cleavages. It might have been a bit less true this time around (although Al actually suggested earlier that Labour actually made major gains in some working-class areas), but it's still way truer than it ever was in the US.

Class is a major factor in determining party preference etc in much of the country, but it has become increasingly hard to define and measure in statistical terms due to the transition towards a service-dominated economy. This is a problem that the polling industry and the political science community stubbornly refuse to deal with, preferring instead to insist that class simply doesn't matter much now because they're lazy and don't want to have to do hard work. Which is a tricky thing to reconcile with actual existing voting patterns.

A comment I made elsewhere:

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What is also notable is that there are striking house effects from polling firms in terms of what patterns relating to the above system are shown; this is really not a good sign as regards its usefulness.

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In most other cities, the urban middle class have largely abandoned the Tories.  See Bristol West, for example, which does contain some working class inner city areas but not enough to explain the scale of the Labour blowout.

Bristol West is a student constituency as much as anything else, but yes they've lost a lot of support in historically middle class districts in all large provincial cities. Of course this reflects as much as anything else the fact that the sort of people living in such places is very different to even twenty years ago: comfortably off and older people have continued to move further out into the suburbs and the countryside and what has replaced them has been further subdivision of houses and a lot of young people with professional job titles but nothing like the level of financial security.

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Tend being something of an understatement! Actually the main bedrock of Tory support, if we're looking at occupations and so on, these days are people with managerial jobs.

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One thing to note: various different firms have already (and others will join them) publish findings with grand titles like HOW BRITAIN VOTED or whatever and flourish their numbers around as FACT. You should be very careful about this: the sort of reasonably sound exit polling demographic data that is the norm in other countries is not collected in Britain.

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I'm sure glad Al made his point about the measurement of class before I saw this chart. Otherwise it would have been utterly depressing.

In addition to all that I wrote earlier, it's worth pointing out that YouGov always shows a particularly small level of divergence between the various ABCDE groups anyway; e.g. only a 9pt difference between Labour AB and DE vote last time which isn't notably different from what they've shown now. I suspect that wrt the Tories the pensioner issue is really blowing up their stats this time, because even with the Brexit backlash there's really no way that...

And again what must always be endlessly, tediously, emphasised is that none of this data (no matter who from) is particularly reliable.

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Inadvertent self-owning from YouGov on the value of any demo data they produce if you look carefully. Let's just say that newspaper readership figures do not exactly have much relationship to even the weighted sample and I'm sure you can all draw further conclusions and implications.

Of course what YouGov are really good at, somehow, is turning dodgy data into reasonably accurate projections. I suspect the trick is that movement is movement and you still pick it up no matter what...

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The North West.

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Gedling is a big slab of humdrum Nottingham suburbia; used to be mixed working class and middle class, now it's more working class with some middle class pockets (richer people, as is the pattern across England, have been moving further out into the countryside). Amusingly enough it used to be an area in which Labour grossly underperformed in and now the opposite is true. But the key thing is a popular and extremely effective incumbent - Vernon Coaker - and a very strong local government base.

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The North East

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Is Corbyn the most leftist of Labour leader since WW2? or more?

In terms of his personal views then he is the most left-wing Labour leader since George Lansbury (1932-35). But the platform Labour ran on was only mildly to the left of that which Labour ran on in 1992 and 1997 and to the right of those of 1987, 1983 and 1974. It was o/c a collective Party platform designed for a collective Party campaign; internet coverage seen from abroad is maybe misleading as to what the Labour campaign felt like.

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And, yes, before anyone asks: George was Angela's uncle.

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The picture will be larger if you right click on it. And you can see the full size image - which is Too Big For Atlas - here.

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Note remarks made previously about the problems with the ABCDE system (though note as well that this firm shows larger differences than YouGov). Ipsos-MORI are confirmed as a firm that classifies nearly all pensioners as DE.

But some spectacularly sh!t takes on the data from media idiots, but that's hardly as surprise. That Ipsos-MORI have joined in as well - hahaha at the spin on the bar charts there, Jesus that's woeful - isn't surprising.

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its not an exit poll and although its got a larger sample size than normal; cross tabs that small aren't going to be particularly accurate.

Correct. These are the best numbers you're going to see, but they're hardly ideal.

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Anyway, and this was clear enough from the results but whatever, Labour's coalition at the election = workers, the young and minorities; the Tories coalition at the election = pensioners, managers and yr classic swing voter types. I mean this only in extremely crude terms of course.

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By classic swing voter types you mean MONDEO MAN right al?

Exactly so.

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What does that mean for us uninitiated? White-collar employees?

People who aren't rich yet are comfortably off whatever their exact occupation (but are vulnerable to economic shocks; often mortgaged up to the hilt etc), who often live in post-1970 detached housing, and generally have very aspirational/materialistic (delete according to taste; I'm assuming you would use the latter word) lifestyles. Increasingly rare under a certain age for obvious reasons.

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Numbers in Parliament for any form of Labour government do not exist. Relations between Labour and the SNP are very bad; actively poisonous actually.

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More critically they won't want to kill the goose that lays the golden eggs. For the true ideology of the DUP is that of all Irish parties with mass support: Gombeenism.

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Minor inconsistencies wrt rounding etc quite likely, but who care. In all cases you see a bigger map with the Power of right click.

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Define 'well' - e.g. those are historically low percentages in Mid Wales and they failed to win a seat there for the first time ever.

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Fun fact: back in 2010 the LibDems actually polled the most votes in Bristol. This year they polled just 4.8% in the city.

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Such takes miss out the key fact which is that an average polling lead of over 20pts at the start of the campaign turned into a final PV lead of 2.5pts...