Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in MASSIVE DISARRAY

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

If you had shown me just that map, I would have guessed something like Neubauer +6 or 7.

Yep, MKE screwing the pooch again.

Also, are those 200ish precincts out early votes? If so, this is not over yet.

I don't know about early votes but I read on the twitterverse that absentees have already been counted. Most of the outstanding precincts are the Appleton area.

Those Outagamie precincts are slowly coming in. Kaukauna (Appleton suburb) had Hagedorn getting stomped, Seymour (weirdly small rural town) was a near-tie. I be Appleton proper precincts will favor Neubauer when they come in but obviously nowhere near the Madison-level numbers she would need to make up a 4K vote shortfall.

e: https://www.outagamie.org/government/departments-a-e/county-clerk/elections/election-results look for the precincts prefixed with "C of" (for city of).

e2: I messed up - Hagedorn won comfortably in Seymour and lost by six votes in Kaukauna.

[Dr. Arch]

If you had shown me just that map, I would have guessed something like Neubauer +6 or 7.

Yep, MKE screwing the pooch again.

Also, are those 200ish precincts out early votes? If so, this is not over yet.

I don't know about early votes but I read on the twitterverse that absentees have already been counted. Most of the outstanding precincts are the Appleton area.

Those Outagamie precincts are slowly coming in. Kaukauna (Appleton suburb) had Hagedorn getting stomped, Seymour (weirdly small rural town) was a near-tie. I be Appleton proper precincts will favor Neubauer when they come in but obviously nowhere near the Madison-level numbers she would need to make up a 4K vote shortfall.

e: https://www.outagamie.org/government/departments-a-e/county-clerk/elections/election-results look for the precincts prefixed with "C of" (for city of).

Thanks

Candidate   Percent   Votes
Brian Hagedorn (Nonpartisan)     50.2%   588,823
Lisa Neubauer (Nonpartisan)     49.8%   584,325
3535 of 3638 (97%) Precincts Reporting, 1,173,148 Total Votes

HAGEDORN MY KING!!!!!!

You call that bigot your "king"? I thought you were better than that.

[Scottholes 2.0]

The bleakest part of the night is that WI is going to be ground zero in 2020, the D nominee campaign is going to call Arch and that "Scottie" guy getting their MA degree for GOTV, and they'll say they moved out of the state because D's lost some judge race in 2019.

Yeah guys, at least wait until 2020 to see if Trump carries it again before giving up on Wisconsin. We might need those 2 votes!

Dane can't offset the loss of two of our votes, as evidenced by this election, so I suppose you're right. I'll see where my future is headed once I graduate.

[Xing]

If I knew right now that this map would be the county map for the 2020 election, I'd feel very good about the Democrats' chances, since turnout in Milwaukee would be at least a bit better. Still, though, extrapolating about counties from races like this is silly. I don't see any way the Democratic candidate will win Trempealeau while losing Kenosha.

[YE]

Why did hell did we do so bad in WOW with a bigot GOP candidate given how anti-Trump they are? Is the ancestral GOP strength having an affect in downballot races much like what we saw in Florida?

[IceSpear]

So how is this going to affect Solid's ratings now?

It'll be a real bombshell if he moves WI to lean D.

[At-Large Senator LouisvilleThunder]

So how is this going to affect Solid's ratings now?

Did he learn from 2018?

Why did hell did we do so bad in WOW with a bigot GOP candidate given how anti-Trump they are? Is the ancestral GOP strength having an affect in downballot races much like what we saw in Florida?

They're rich social conservatives.

[Virginiá]

well that sucks

understatement of the year?

Unless you live in Wisconsin I don't see how it would merit any stronger of a reaction than that.

Yea I mean I get why it'd be a bigger deal to a WI resident, but to me, I look at it almost entirely through the context of redistricting and other election-related rulings, and on that front, Evers being Governor kind of mitigates the fallout from this. If Republicans wanted to change the law and try to ignore precedent and implement new maps by resolution instead of statute, the time was in the lame duck, not after. Now, afaik, they are locked into the current process. Although I could be wrong I guess.

[Comrade Funk]

Wisconsin will definitely be the toughest nut to crack among the big three. Can't get complacent again.

[Dr. Arch]

50 precincts to go and the margin is down to -1.5k.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Candidate   Percent   Vote
Brian Hagedorn (Nonpartisan)     50.2%   592,124
Lisa Neubauer (Nonpartisan)     49.8%   587,016
3561 of 3638 (98%) Precincts Reporting, 1,179,140 Total Votes

Sorry Neubauer, but recounts and provisionals won't make up 5100+ votes.

[RI]

50 precincts to go and the margin is down to -1.5k.

The city of Appleton completely reported, leading to a temporary lead for Neubauer in Outagamie County, but the rest of the county that's out is rural and R-heavy.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Over 600,000 for King Hagedorn now:

Candidate   Percent   Votes
Brian Hagedorn (Nonpartisan)     50.2%   602,435
Lisa Neubauer (Nonpartisan)     49.8%   596,634
3627 of 3638 (100%) Precincts Reporting, 1,199,069 Total Votes

[OSR stands with Israel]

GOD DANM IT.

Wisconsin to win statewide requires like 4 things to go well for the Dems and it's so frustrating.

Still better than Florida...

I was stunned on election night when DeSantis won while Walker lost. I just didnt believe that would happen

[OSR stands with Israel]

If Neubauer wins, I’ll move WI-PRES from Toss-up to Likely D, declare WI a Democratic-trending/permanent Democratic state and call the 2020 race for the Democratic candidate.

If Hagedorn wins, I’ll move WI-PRES from Toss-up to Likely R, declare WI a Republican-trending/permanent R state and call the 2020 race for Trump.

RATINGS CHANGES becuz of speshul electionz:

PA: Toss up -> Safe D
WI: Toss up -> Safe R
CT: Safe D -> Lean D
OK: Safe R -> Lean R

Well, no, but tonight does reinforce the "PA will be the easiest Trump state for Dems to win back" narrative. 

I think it's always been pretty obvious that WI is the least fertile ground of the MI/PA/WI trio. It's the state where Dems are most dependent on white rural voters to give them a winning coalition, which is problematic for obvious reasons. On top of that, Evers' victory margin in a D+9 Democratic wave year was not exactly impressive, and Dems did worse than Hillary in the one House seat they targeted in the state.

Tammy Baldwin beating a trash-tier candidate by a bit more than the NPV did not suddenly mean Wisconsin was back to being a Democratic stronghold again.

If Dems lose WI in 2020 its probably over as AZ and WI will probably vote the same way in 2020. It is my belief that the election will come down to those two states (WI and AZ)

[Annatar]

As of right now I don't believe it would be fair for dems to complain they lost because of Milwaukee, Hagedorn according to Decision Desk leads 5,801 and the fall off in the Milwaukee margin vs April 2018 is only 4,173. If the final margin is below 4,173 then Milwaukee can indeed be blamed for the loss.

[ElectionsGuy]

Wow, Democrats drastically underperformed in the Milwaukee area to the point where Dane County being 79% Neubauer wasn't enough. It's worth noting that Dane County had more votes than Milwaukee despite having a little more than half of its population, and Waukesha County's margin over exceeded Milwaukee County's margin (in terms of votes). Neubauer doing on par in the rural western part of the state and underperforming a little in the rural eastern parts still didn't make up for it. The race resembled an election of traditional partisan turf (as is expected) with WOW and Milwaukee being more Republican, Dane County being the liberal bulwark, and rural Wisconsin being swingy and not as Republican.

Turnout was also much higher than last year's supreme court race, so Republicans were definitely more motivated to turn out this time than last year (when Screnock barely ran a campaign at all), whereas Democrats clearly had a turnout issue in Milwaukee. This appears to strengthen the claim that lower turnout tends to favor the "out" party during midterms and off-year elections, not necessarily one party all the time. This election has no sway on who will win at the presidential level in 2020, as the coalitions that come out for supreme court races in off-year elections in the spring are vastly different than general elections in the fall.

So why did he end up so close and possibly winning? Well, if you read the replies in this thread and the last one you'll have your answer. Liberals calling Hagedorn a homophobe and a bigot most resembles a losing strategy that they keep pursuing over and over again, referencing his history and past views on the issues. In reality, most people don't care about what some candidate did or said years ago, they care about how they're going to conduct themselves as a judge. In all the ads I saw, all that the Neubauer backed groups did was blast Hagedorn's anti-gay views and contributions. "Unfit" for the court, they said. Well, wasn't Trump "unfit" for the presidency. This had the unintended effect of riling up the base and making them more likely to vote. Talk radio in the Milwaukee area was 100% behind Hagedorn and practically stumped for him every day leading up to the election. While it was unexpected, looking back I'm not that surprised that this was so close, yet every single piece of evidence pointed to an easy Neubauer win. Liberals once again clenched defeat in the hands of victory.

[wbrocks67]

Any way you spin it, this is a serious issue for Ds. They won last year by double digits and now we lost this one. I'm sure it has a lot to do with the typical "we won last year, we're not engaged" but this can't be repeated in 2020.

[Nyvin]

This was just a close election in a closely divided state.   It doesn't indicate any sort of trend one way or another.   People need to stop overreacting to a ~1% win in an off year election.

[Brittain33]

Any way you spin it, this is a serious issue for Ds. They won last year by double digits and now we lost this one. I'm sure it has a lot to do with the typical "we won last year, we're not engaged" but this can't be repeated in 2020.

Again, Dem turnout stayed quite high, the difference is that 100,000+ Republicans showed up this year who didn't come out last year.

[Brittain33]

This was just a close election in a closely divided state.   It doesn't indicate any sort of trend one way or another.   People need to stop overreacting to a ~1% win in an off year election.

Be that as it may, the fact that Wisconsin is having close elections yesterday and in last November's races rather than sizable Democratic wins like in the 2018 SC race and legislative specials is noteworthy.

[Gass3268]

In today's political climate in Wisconsin there is absolutely no reason WI-01 should be to the right of WI-07 and WI-08.

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1113358126600851461


https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1113310232963317760

Also Dane County outvoted Milwaukee County, that also should never happen, but appears to be a growing trend for spring elections.

[Annatar]

It looks like Neubauer got 44,000 more votes then Dallet, an increase of 8% whereas Hagedorn got 165,000 more then Screnock, an increase of 37%. I assume there were virtually no voters who switched, I can't really see Dallet voters going for Hagedorn and vice versa so it looks like of the extra 209,000 voters who came out, 80% were Republicans, which of course begs the question why Republican turnout was so low in April 2018 compared to this year.

[Politician]

Yeah, this was mostly the result of turnout in a spring election not being lopsided in favor of Democrats like it was with Dallet vs Screnock. I wouldn't use this to argue Wisconsin is Lean/Likely R in 2020, as black turnout in Milwaukee will almost certainly rise compared to this. On the other hand, I'd be surprised if the Dem candidate did as well as Neubauer in WI-03.

[Zaybay]

I was going to warn that you shouldnt base a presidential election off the back of a 15% turnout election in the middle of the spring, but it looks like Im already too late