It is possible that OH actually isn't the linchpin. This morning Chuck Todd was saying that maybe CO is the real ground zero and that OH was yesterday's tipping point. Obama wins if he can hold all the states won by Kerry or Gore (which includes WI, NH, IA) plus the two western states that have seen big increases in Latino votes in the last 8 years (NV and CO). NV is already looking like it is in Obama's column and CO underpolled for Dems in both 2008 and 2010, both times due to Latinos. CO ranks 4th in spending behind FLOHVA but it is also smaller than all of those states. So the campaigns are recognizing it as a possible tipping point and the key to an Obama victory without FLOHVA.
Absolutely.. in addition, now it seems, according to polls, that Obama's about as likely, or slightly more likely, to win Virginia as Colorado
or Ohio.
Poll
