🇩🇪 German state & local elections

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

That's pretty moderate compared to our state government in Baden-Württemberg. When the Green-Black coalition assumed office in 2016, they increased the number of state secretaries by a fair number.

In Bremen, I would have preferred a coaltion with the FDP instead of the Left. A traffic light coaltion would have a majority of one seat (44 out of 84).

BW is at least a donor state that pay into the Länderfinanzausgleich ("Equalization Payments"). Bremen is on the other side is a permanent recipient state that doesn't even want to become fiscally disciplined -  and you will have the privilege of paying for the ninth senator.

I would have preferred a Jamaica coalition. Not only because the CDU became the strongest party in the Bremische Bürgerschaft for the very first time, but also because I can't see a fruitful collaboration between Lenke Steiner and the very left-wing Bremen SPD.

[TheSaint250]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1147117050290233344

[Tender Branson]

That's no real damage though ...

The AfD will win quite a few direct seats in Saxony this year (probably around 20-30 of them), which can be supplemented even with the smaller number of 18 list candidates.

And they can use this decision to shore up their voters, because they can spin it as a conspiracy theory against the AfD by the "hostile" election commission ...

[President Johnson]

I wish they struck down the entire list. The AfD is in large parts an anti-democratic, hard-right, nationalist cancer on society, trying to undermine the rule of law and democratic institutions. Apologists for right-wing extremism and hate speech. I'm also against unlimited immigration and like to see rejected/criminal asylum seekers being deported, but their entire attitude is only to tear us apart. And their "work" in legislatures is toxic and nonconstructive. We need real people solving problems, not dumb rhetoric.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Oh, since no one has mentioned it yet:
Mayor Carsten Sieling has emulated his predecessor's deeds and resigned. Consequently, the newly-elected SPD faction leader Andreas Bovenschulte is to become the new mayor of Bremen under the extreme left-wing new Senate.

https://twitter.com/butenunbinnen/status/1145686435946741761

[Tender Branson]

Approval ratings of current governors:



Brandenburg, Thüringen and Sachsen have state elections coming up.

[urutzizu]

That's no real damage though ...

The AfD will win quite a few direct seats in Saxony this year (probably around 20-30 of them), which can be supplemented even with the smaller number of 18 list candidates.

And they can use this decision to shore up their voters, because they can spin it as a conspiracy theory against the AfD by the "hostile" election commission ...

The Federal Constitutional Court has rejected a Appeal by the AFD against the decision on procedural grounds . The AFD also has an Appeal before Saxonys Constitutional court, the hearing will be tomorrow.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Question: What is depicted on the map below?

A) the poll numbers for the SPD during the Schröder era
B) today's maximum temperature in Germany

https://twitter.com/tagesthemen/status/1154119864207982593

[Tender Branson]

That's no real damage though ...

The AfD will win quite a few direct seats in Saxony this year (probably around 20-30 of them), which can be supplemented even with the smaller number of 18 list candidates.

And they can use this decision to shore up their voters, because they can spin it as a conspiracy theory against the AfD by the "hostile" election commission ...

The Federal Constitutional Court has rejected a Appeal by the AFD against the decision on procedural grounds . The AFD also has an Appeal before Saxonys Constitutional court, the hearing will be tomorrow.

The Saxony Supreme Court has ruled in favour of the AfD to expand their candidate list from 18 to 30, which would be a quarter of seats in parliament.

https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/afd-sachsen-darf-landeswahlliste-laut-verfassungsgericht-erweitern-a-1279043.html

[urutzizu]

Indeed, it was only a preliminary ruling however, a complete ruling on whether the disqualification was legal will be given on the 16. August, by which time Nominations will have closed already.

Both technically and politically a big victory for the AFD.
Even with 18 list Candidates they were never in any trouble of not having enough names, unless there was both massive tactical voting for CDU in the direct mandates AND the AFD overperformed on their second vote massively, but with this ruling they are mathematically in the dry no matter what happens.   

Also, of course, they will now have a Court Judgement "proving" they were wronged by the establishment (although the court never actually said that.)

The reason for why 30 candidates were allowed, was, by the way, that the first 30 candidates were voted on by the AFD party congress individually, but then, after that, due to time constraints the other 30 seats were approved en bloc. Also they used two different days for the party nominations.

[urutzizu]

Not only did we shatter an all-time record in Germany today, it was hotter here than in Dubai

https://twitter.com/AfDimBundestag/status/1148524694280105984

This tweet from the AFD is looking a bit ridiculous now

[President Johnson]

Question: What is depicted on the map below?

A) the poll numbers for the SPD during the Schröder era
B) today's maximum temperature in Germany

https://twitter.com/tagesthemen/status/1154119864207982593

Waiting for the AfD to claim this map is an attempt to make us believe climate change is real when it's not.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The rigged thermometers are lying to us.

[urutzizu]

Linke are now strongest Party in Thüringen, thanks to CDU and SPD collapse, AFD surge.
Wont help Ramelow much though, as Red-Red-Green has no majority, nor has Jamaika nor has CDU-SPD-FDP.
And that my friends would be the first negative Majority since Weimar.

So what are the options:
Linke+CDU+???    (Extremely unlikely although Ramelow is one of the moderates in the Left)
AFD+CDU+FDP     (No way, if anywhere then in Saxony, and even there its like <5% Chance)
Linke+AFD            (National-Bolschewik Putin Fifth Collumn Coalition only in my dreams )
Snap election         (Very likely)
and the same,
even more chaos  
as before  

Someone will need to break the cordon sanitaire or there will be no more governments in the east. But who will the CDU choose they hate a bit less? AFD or Linke?
 

[Oryxslayer]

Linke are now strongest Party in Thüringen, thanks to CDU and SPD collapse, AFD surge.
Wont help Ramelow much though, as Red-Red-Green has no majority, nor has Jamaika nor has CDU-SPD-FDP.
And that my friends would be the first negative Majority since Weimar.

So what are the options:
Linke+CDU+???    (Extremely unlikely although Ramelow is one of the moderates in the Left)
AFD+CDU+FDP     (No way, if anywhere then in Saxony, and even there its like <5% Chance)
Linke+AFD            (National-Bolschewik Putin Fifth Collumn Coalition only in my dreams )
Snap election         (Very likely)
and the same,
even more chaos  
as before  

Someone will need to break the cordon sanitaire or there will be no more governments in the east. But who will the CDU choose they hate a bit less? AFD or Linke?
 

I mean with R2G at 44%+awarded others, its likely sitting at 46-48% of the chamber. That's more than enough for you to first deny and hope for the MOE, and then if it does come to pass, stick to your guns and hope someone provides outside support so as to avoid repeat elections. And FDP on 5% is certainly the high MOE result, since it missing the threshold gives R2G a majority.

[Tender Branson]

An AfD/CDU government would probably have a small majority in Thüringen if the FDP stays below 5% ...

[pilskonzept]

Linke are now strongest Party in Thüringen, thanks to CDU and SPD collapse, AFD surge.
Wont help Ramelow much though, as Red-Red-Green has no majority, nor has Jamaika nor has CDU-SPD-FDP.
And that my friends would be the first negative Majority since Weimar.

So what are the options:
Linke+CDU+???    (Extremely unlikely although Ramelow is one of the moderates in the Left)
AFD+CDU+FDP     (No way, if anywhere then in Saxony, and even there its like <5% Chance)
Linke+AFD            (National-Bolschewik Putin Fifth Collumn Coalition only in my dreams )
Snap election         (Very likely)
and the same,
even more chaos  
as before  

Someone will need to break the cordon sanitaire or there will be no more governments in the east. But who will the CDU choose they hate a bit less? AFD or Linke?
 

Minority government led by CDU or Linke, which won't last a full term but will pass at least one budget. Followed by early elections that may result in a more ordinary coalition government thanks to strategic voting.

[urutzizu]

I mean with R2G at 44%+awarded others, its likely sitting at 46-48% of the chamber. That's more than enough for you to first deny and hope for the MOE, and then if it does come to pass, stick to your guns and hope someone provides outside support so as to avoid repeat elections. And FDP on 5% is certainly the high MOE result, since it missing the threshold gives R2G a majority.

This does not happen in Germany. Minority Governments are already a big no-no in Germany (google Andrea Ypsilanti) and that was just the toleration of a red-green Government by the left. Who would tolerate the Red-red-green government? CDU? FDP? That would be a death sentence for the party involved. In other countries, i would agree maybe, but not in Germany.

Also there would not be a majority for Red-Red-Green even if the FDP were out.

[pilskonzept]

An AfD/CDU government would probably have a small majority in Thüringen if the FDP stays below 5% ...

Doesn't mean such a government is going to happen. CDU/AfD is just possible, though not likely, with CDU as the larger party.

[pilskonzept]

I mean with R2G at 44%+awarded others, its likely sitting at 46-48% of the chamber. That's more than enough for you to first deny and hope for the MOE, and then if it does come to pass, stick to your guns and hope someone provides outside support so as to avoid repeat elections. And FDP on 5% is certainly the high MOE result, since it missing the threshold gives R2G a majority.

This does not happen in Germany. Minority Governments are already a total no-go in Germany (google Andrea Ypsilanti) and that was just the toleration of a red-green Government by the left. Who would tolerate the Red-red-green government? CDU? FDP? That would be a death sentence for the party involved. In other countries, i would agree maybe, but not in Germany.

Also there would not be a majority for Red-Red-Green even if the FDP were out.

Anti-AfD CDUers - Merkelites if you like - may well provide (fairly conditional) support to RRG. Anti-AfD Lefties may do the same for a CDU-Green-SPD government.

It can't be done until it's done.

[urutzizu]

Minority government led by CDU or Linke, which won't last a full term but will pass at least one budget. Followed by early elections that may result in a more ordinary coalition government thanks to strategic voting.

What do you envisiage when you say "strategic voting" ?

As to your second point i doubt that certain Members of the CDU would break Party discipline and vote with R2G, but ok that might conceivably be possible.

[pilskonzept]

What do you envisiage when you say "strategic voting" ?

Wild, messy and (for now) unpredictable swings between the parties. This is the East

More seriously: as with MPs' voting behaviour above, I could see voters flocking to the party most likely to lead a coalition.

[Oryxslayer]

I mean with R2G at 44%+awarded others, its likely sitting at 46-48% of the chamber. That's more than enough for you to first deny and hope for the MOE, and then if it does come to pass, stick to your guns and hope someone provides outside support so as to avoid repeat elections. And FDP on 5% is certainly the high MOE result, since it missing the threshold gives R2G a majority.

This does not happen in Germany. Minority Governments are already a big no-no in Germany (google Andrea Ypsilanti) and that was just the toleration of a red-green Government by the left. Who would tolerate the Red-red-green government? CDU? FDP? That would be a death sentence for the party involved. In other countries, i would agree maybe, but not in Germany.

Also there would not be a majority for Red-Red-Green even if the FDP were out.

1. I recognize no minority govt has ever been done before in Germany, and that Germany does not do this sort of thing. That's why I said 'hope' rather than negotiate, since it would basically be putting the govt to a vote and blessing that someone will prefer a govt to new elections. Like pile noted, this would be the kind of thing that collapses as soon as someone gets a good polling lead.

2. Oops I confused the 45 for CDU/Add and the 44 for R2G here. But either way, MOE. Also, as noted, tactical voting will occur when we get closer to the election.

[urutzizu]

1. I recognize no minority govt has ever been done before in Germany, and that Germany does not do this sort of thing. That's why I said 'hope' rather than negotiate, since it would basically be putting the govt to a vote and blessing that someone will prefer a govt to new elections. Like pile noted, this would be the kind of thing that collapses as soon as someone gets a good polling lead.

I am being excessively pedantic here, i know, but we have actually had minority Governments on the state level, and sometimes they even worked quite well, such as in Saxony-Anhalt from 1994-2002. In NRW there was also a successful minority Government formed in 2010, although that broke apart 2 Years later after die linke refused to support the budget.  
Basically the NRW episode and the Ypsilanti thing massively discredited the idea of minority governments (although they are occasionally still tossed around), and since then there havent been any serious attempts in that regard. Now i do think that the Idea in principle could return, its just that until now it had always been centre-left Governments backed by the left, and this would be a Left party government backed by the right. I just dont think that they are there jet, although they are closer than say 10 years ago. For those interested on the Subject CDU-Linke relations, there is a interview with Bodo Ramelow and (very moderate) CDU Daniel Günther MP of SH who in the Bundesrat have had a very good relationship, and both seem to be opening to a "historic compromise": https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/bodo-ramelow-und-daniel-guenther-zeit-der-ausgrenzung-ist-vorbei-a-1271775.html      

The idea of Pilzconzept is plausable, but not probable in my opinion. I believe Votes on electing the Government in the Landtag are secret, so potential CDU defectors could do so easily. However party discipline is still very strong in germany (completely different to the U.S.) and if the CDU fraction as a whole says no, i expect that the MPs will fall in line. There still is a ton of Bad Blood in the CDU, especially in the eastern branches, to the Party that came out of the SED, and it is similar in the left towards the CDU (though ironically less so in the eastern branches).  

As for tactical Voting, i am sceptical. When there has been tactical voting in Germany, and it is not common here, it has been Supporters of the larger parties (esp. CDU) voting tactically to bail out the smaller parties on their side (especially FDP) (leihstimmen). This was very prominent in Niedersachsen 2012. I would not know of it ever happening the other way round, especially since this would actually have the potential to hurt their "side" overall, although the "sides" dont really exist since 2013 anymore, so who knows.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

The first minority government was formed in Hesse in 1983 (technically already in 1982) under SPD Governor Holger Börner, when the Greens had the same reputation as the Left 22 years later and the AfD nowadays.
The state government however was transformed into a red-green cabinet two years later.