France 2012: the official thread

[Antonio the Sixth]

Wait, I thought you were a Hollande supporter?

Nope. I supported DSK and now I'll back the best placed candidate who isn't Hollande or Royal.

An Austrian MP is under heavy fire for saying this about DSK in parliament:

"Obwohl er schon ein reiferer Mann, zeigt Dominique Strauss, was er noch Ka(h)nn."

"Even though Dominique Strauss is already a mature man, he still shows what he can (Kahn)."

http://derstandard.at/1304552182958/Grossruck-sorgt-mit-Strauss-Kahn-Reim-fuer-Empoerung

The Greens want him to step down because of that, while the ÖVP backs him. All other parties are condemning the remarks as well.

What an idiot and an asshole. People like him don't deserve to be a representative of the people.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Wait, I thought you were a Hollande supporter?

Nope. I supported DSK and now I'll back the best placed candidate who isn't Hollande or Royal.

     Thinking about backing Aubry, then?

Definitely (if she runs). I don't hate her like my fellow Frenchie. I think she is a serious person, she knows her job and will be able to counter Sarko's lies. She is definitely a poor speaker, but at least she isn't a useless wimp who will look like Martin Luther Kind for half a second and then will become an absolute joke. Also, for a Jospinian like me, it's normal to have DSK and Aubry as his prefered choices.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Who is a person like me supposed to support, anyway? Sarkozy? I don't particularly like him, but I don't think his policies are terrible. Is there any credible right-wing alternative?

Borloo isn't exactly your kind of candidate (too "social"), but if you don't want to vote for Sarkozy that's your best alternative. In the second round, you'd almost certainly vote for Sarkozy (which makes you a HP ).

[Antonio the Sixth]

So the PS candidates still leads the 1st round, whith an even increased margin. That's reassuring, but it's too early to rejoice.

WTF, Sarkozy winning second round ? Wasn't even Hollande ahead with like 55% ?

[Antonio the Sixth]

I know you guys don't really want this in here, but can I say in relation to the DSK case, that the US practice of very heavy punishments for people who plea 'not guily' strikes me as a bit retarded and more or less likely to result in miscarriages of justice?

Well, no.

Not guilty leads to normal punishment.
If you plea "guilty", you usually have a deal with the Attorney, in which you plea guilty and the attorney is asking a more lenient sentence, because you cooperated.

In the attorney view, it is better to have no trial with a reduced punishment than than a lenghly and costly trial, which can be very difficult to witnesses, victims and their families and which can fail to convince the jury.

Well yeah, but US normal punishments are quite bad and the US doesn't seem to parole-happy. I believe DSK would risk 74 years if he was found guilty of all the charges brought against him. Over here 74 years wouldn't even be given for murder.

If he is innocent, he has no reason to worry. The American justice has its flaws, but doesn't seem as prone to judicial errors as the French one.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Of course the fact the possibility of consensual sex as his defense is evoked (though so far it's only a rumour and we shouldn't be too quick) seems to make his guiltiness far more likely. It might very well be true however.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, everybody knew he was a "hot rabbit". And that's irrelevant.

Now I'd really like to know what evidence the accusation really has, because this will change a lot of things. A lot has been said so far, but nothing confirmed. Things will be clearer in the next days.

As I've said, and for cruel that this might be, I really wish he is guilty.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Incriminated. Now we'll see.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Interesting debate/show on France 2.

For once, Manuel Valls is excellent.

Edit : really excellent.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The bail is aceepted. Common sense has won, eventually.

[Antonio the Sixth]

OMG... Well, this gives us another possible theory : that a partisan of left unity who had know about the poll before anyone else became afraid of tough primaries between DSK and Hollande, and decided to "eliminate" the runner-up in order to ensure an easy win for Hollande.
Or a supporter of Martine Aubry who wanted to give her a better chance to win.

[Antonio the Sixth]

You know I've no sympathy for Hollande, but cancelling the primaries would be a catastrophe and would head the PS to an epic failure. I don't know how much credit to give to these rumours, though. The PS is a losing machine, we know that, but they should be really demented to do that now.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Several blogs I read, written by radical libertarians, seem to be on DSK's side.  Strange bedfellows, eh, Tony?

http://www.economicpolicyjournal.com/2011/05/case-for-imf-chief-dominique-strauss.html

As usual with conspiracy theories, there are some intriguing elements and a lot of bullsh*t.
On the first side, the points he makes about the hotel's behaviour, the victim's attorney, the fact DSK could (and did) simply get call-girls, and more generally the fact it comes extremely opportunely for several people. To this we can add the fact the person who have seen him that day all affirm he was calm and acted normally. Again, that's not evidence of anything, but that's nonetheless elements to consider.
As for the bullsh*t, the muslim/headscarf stuff is just ridiculous. And La Conquête, which I've just seen a couple of hours ago, is not an anti-Sarkozy movie and was absolutely never expected to hurt Sarko in any way. It's wasn't ever intended to make a political point, it's mostly factual and tells what everybody already knows.

[Antonio the Sixth]

You know I've no sympathy for Hollande, but cancelling the primaries would be a catastrophe and would head the PS to an epic failure. I don't know how much credit to give to these rumours, though. The PS is a losing machine, we know that, but they should be really demented to do that now.

Unfortunately (oh, I should say "fortunately" if I'd react like an UMP-hack ), that's not rumours.
Cambadélis and Valls are slightly less extreme than Patriat or Bartolone: the former want only "suspension" while the latter want a complete stop.

I've heard Valls on France 2 thursday and he talked about "mettre les primaires entre parenthèses". Maybe I'm overly naive, but I simply interpreted it as meaning candidates suspending their campaign, not about cancelling the primaries outright. A few guys like Bartolone may call for that, but I doubt the leadership will be silly enough to follow.

And well, if Aubry really wants to be candidate, she could start actually campaigning now. She certainly can beat Hollande.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Aubry on France 2 a couple of minutes ago. So yeah, looks like she will be a candidate. She can win IMO, she certainly will have a strong appeal as the "normal" candidate and the non-egocentric one. But she'll have to start campaigning really.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I know you really hate her, but I think you're underestimating her a bit. Of course she is the runner-up and Hollande seems a better candidate, both in the primaries and the general election. But frankly, there were so much talks about DSK's strength being inflated, and now we should consider Hollande's lead as definitive ?

Hollande is "normal" in the populist/Chirac/GW Bush sense. The nice guy you could have a drink with, and all this crap. That might please the people, but it's still a fraud. Aubry isn't IMO trying to imitate him. By "normal", it's more to mean a normal politician, a more traditional one. Ie someone who focuses on the party, the collectivity and all this. On project rather than personality, etc... Of course this has never worked well in the 5th Republic, but if people are fed up enough of Sarko's egomania, there could be some backlash in favor of old-style, more low-key politicians who can play in a team.

Also, Aubry is a poor orator, but a decent (pretty good, if you want my opinion) debater. I think she would be far more advantaged than Hollande in a debate against Sarkozy. Really, Hollande is a failure like Royal was, like her he is high in the polls because he says nothing but says it smiling. Aubry is less attractive, but far more safe and less likely to kill herself.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Weird swings this week... Both socialist leaders have gained a lot (so maybe DSK's eliminations suddenly made Aubry and Hollande more "credible" as candidates). Sarkozy significantly higher against Aubry and slightly higher against Hollande, Le Pen significantly lower against Hollande and unchanged against Aubry. Hulot and Borloo lose ground, especially against Hollande, while Mélenchon gains somewhat. The NPA falls into irrelevancy, and Chevènement is headed to be this year's Schivardi.

Just a technical question... When you say you reduce the weigh of a poll by 15% each week, do you mean 15% "arithmetically" or "geometrically" ? Ie does it go 100% -> 85% -> 70% -> 55% etc or 100% -> 85% -> 72% -> 61% etc ? It will change a lot with very old polls.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, arithmetically makes more sense IMO. Let's hope we'll get more polls soon, but so far the ponderation seems to work well and doesn't prevent us from catching potentially significant swings (like the socialist bump this week).

[Antonio the Sixth]

My graph is prettier but I'll wait until we have a bit more points to show it.

WTF ? Sarkozy doesn't even gain one point when Villepin, Borloo and NDA aren't polled ?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Updated the tracker. The graph is slowly starting to look nice, but I'll wait another week before showing it.

I don't know if it's normal, but the Aubry total lacks 0.02 point. I know, that's not a big deal but I'm a perfectionist.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Nah, that's fine.

BTW, I forgot to comment the last PS primary poll, but of course that's great news and I hope this trend will continue.

[Antonio the Sixth]

No new poll ? How is this possible ? So yeah, this week's changes are only statistical adjustments...


Anyways, here are finally the graphs !

Aubry :


Hollande :


Every candidate who has at some point reached 5% will be included. I'll update the graph every 4 weeks. I don't think we need a trendline since Fab's method already ensures some regression to the mean.

[Antonio the Sixth]

How come the Le Pen support is falling?

A lot of us are asking ourselves that actually. The initial thought was that the DSK affair would have benefitted to her significantly, yet her support is slightly declining. Maybe the simplest explanation is that her support has reached a maximum (keep in mind that the current numbers are extremely high even for France's standards : less than one year ago, her numbers were around 10-15% AFAIK) and now are just stabilizing. The last months have seen a massive surge for Le Pen, to the point where polls showed her ahead or tied with Sarkozy. Massive surges like these rarely entirely hold on when you're so far from the election.

Of course that's not to say "april 21" threat is avoided, far from it. At this point, a lot of things still can happen.

[Antonio the Sixth]

BUT:
6% think his reelection is certain,
51% think it's likely (probable),
28% unlikely (peu probable),
13% impossible.

Of course, many people could be illiterate enough not to know the difference between probable and possible...
And you don't have a central category with just possible or so-so.
Still, he has an opportunity, provided events are on his side, socialists fight too much between themselves in the autumn, etc...

I'm not among those who think Sarkozy is done, but 57% thinking it's more likely than not is outright ridiculous.

Edit : now that I think about it, it might be a very good thing for the left. Those two poll put together show us that french people want him to lose, but fears it will win. That will probably make them even more prone to prevent his victory, for example avoiding vote split in the first round...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Do they ever bother testing the results of a hypothetical run-off between Hollande or Aubry and Marine LePen if Sarkozy comes in third? Judging from the polls there is more of a chance of that happening than of Sarkozy/LePen run-off. I would also be very curious to see where Sarkozy's voters would go in that scenario.

I think there have been a few polls about it, showing the PS candidate in the 60-70 range (thus, surprisingly similar to Sarkozy).