2017 French Presidential Election

[TheSaint250]

Just wondering:

Let's say that out of nowhere Mélenchon very narrowly edges out Macron and is to face Le Pen in the runoff.  Who would win?

[ApatheticAustrian]

Just wondering:

Let's say that out of nowhere Mélenchon very narrowly edges out Macron and is to face Le Pen in the runoff.  Who would win?

all bets are off then, imho but i would guess le pen.

[Hash]

Arthaud's the candidate for Lutte Ouvrier - Workers' Struggle. It's a Trotskyist party.

Sect.

[Kringla Heimsins]

Just wondering:

Let's say that out of nowhere Mélenchon very narrowly edges out Macron and is to face Le Pen in the runoff.  Who would win?

For what it's worth (not much), Mélenchon crushes Le Pen in the only poll made about this possible runoff: https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liste_de_sondages_sur_l%27%C3%A9lection_pr%C3%A9sidentielle_fran%C3%A7aise_de_2017#Le_Pen_-_M.C3.A9lenchon

More polls about hypothetical second rounds are coming though, according to the Superior Audiovisual Council (yes, that's a thing here) who previously restricted the possibility to test "unrealistic" second rounds in order not to influence the voters.

Edit: it's actually the Poll Commission (source in French: https://www.marianne.net/politique/presidentielle-jean-luc-melenchon-pourrait-bientot-apparaitre-dans-des-sondages-de-second). Praise the bureaucracy.

[ilikeverin]

With weights:
Arthaud 72%
Macron 71%
Hamon 68%
Poutou 66%
Cheminade 59%
Mélenchon 52%
Dupont-Aignan 51%
Fillon 46%
Le Pen 35%

Unsurprisingly, my Le Pen score dropped through the floor after I said I cared about immigration and "French culture" the most!

[Barnes]

Seeing as there is (rightly so) no thread for the legislative elections yet, I just thought I'd post in here.

En Marche has announced its first candidates for the June election, not that it's particularly important. Even if Macron wins, I can't see EM getting more than 50 seats, at the most. If he loses, the whole thing obviously folds very quickly. 

[peterthlee]

Just wondering:

Let's say that out of nowhere Mélenchon very narrowly edges out Macron and is to face Le Pen in the runoff.  Who would win?

Mélenchon, 53-47, a redux of Van der Bellen in Austria.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Melenchon's best hope in that scenario would be to pivot hard to the whole "abolish the president" part of his platform.

[Shadows]

Four out of the five main candidates in the French presidential election support a relaxation of the country’s cannabis laws. Under the current law, first passed in 1970, taking any illegal drug carries the risk of a one-year prison sentence and a fine of up to 3,750 euros. However cannabis remains one of the most popular illegal drugs in France, with 47 per cent of 17-year-olds saying they have tried it, according to a recent survey by the French Observatory for Drugs and Addiction.

Centrist Emmanuel Macron, currently leading polls for the first round of voting on 23 April, and right-wing candidate Francois Fillon, have both said police should issue warnings and on-the-spot fines for cannabis use. Left-wing candidates Jean-Luc Melenchon and Benoit Hamon have said the drug should be legalised, while only Marine Le Pen, of the far-right Front National, is against any change to the law.“It’s a completely crazy idea. Instead we must use every force available to us to fight against drugs and drug dealers,” Ms Le Pen’s presidential campaign director David Rachline told radio station France 2 in October.

Source - http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/french-election-presidential-candidates-cannabis-laws-marijuana-emmanuel-macron-marine-le-pen-a7669706.html

[Shadows]

Having refused to pose with the others for the official photograph, saying “they’re not my colleagues”, Poutou (whose name means “little kiss” in French) told Le Pen that ordinary workers did not have the option of ignoring a legal summons.

“Since January, it’s been a feast. Fillon? Nothing but affairs; the more one digs the more one smells corruption and cheating ... it’s the same with Marine Le Pen, they’re pinching from public funds, and the FN, which is supposed to be anti-system, isn’t bothered because it’s protected thanks to parliamentary immunity.”

He arrived at the studio wearing a beige T-shirt – in stark contrast to the other male candidates all in suits and ties – and was combative from the start.

Asked to introduce himself, he said: “I’m a factory worker and apart from Nathalie Arthaud, I believe I’m the only one to have a normal job”, adding that he was against the “indecent rich”. When the moderators pointed out he was running over the time limit, Poutou said: “Just because I’m not wearing a tie, doesn’t mean you can interrupt me.” At one point he added: “Everyone is fed up with corrupt politicians, and some here know that.”

This time his slogan is: “Our lives not their profits.”

Full Article - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/apr/05/french-election-factory-worker-philippe-poutou-emerges-as-star-of-tv-debate

[Shadows]

Post - Debate Results - Elabe Poll - Sample - 1024

Most Convincing -
Melenchon - 25%
Macron - 21%
Fillion - 15%
La Pen - 11%

Best plans for France -
Macron - 23%
Melenchon - 22%
Fillon - 18%
Le Pen - 15%

Source - http://www.politico.eu/article/melenchon-won-french-presidential-debate-poll/

(Surely Hamon is becoming more of a non-factor & he will collapse probably - Would Melenchon gain if Hamon withdraws because some voters may shift to Macron as well

[Zinneke]

(Surely Hamon is becoming more of a non-factor & he will collapse probably - Would Melenchon gain if Hamon withdraws because some voters may shift to Macron as well

I don't think Hamon can withdraw, as it would relinquish the hold his faction in the PS finally have over the party. They can blame the result on Hollande. While its imploding its still a usefull tool for the legislatives, as discussed previously.   

[Tirnam]

Some reactions after the US strike on Syria

-Macron said yesterday, before the strike, that he was in favor of a military operation under the UN
-Le Pen is surprised by Trump's decision to "become the policeman of the world"
-Fillon "understands" the American strike but warns about a confrontation West-Russia
-Hamon: Assad is the only responsible for the strike
-Mélenchon: no reaction yet after the strike, he said yesterday that the crime must be punished.

[ApatheticAustrian]

the "true left" ps candidate sounds most hawkish? interesting.

[parochial boy]

(Surely Hamon is becoming more of a non-factor & he will collapse probably - Would Melenchon gain if Hamon withdraws because some voters may shift to Macron as well

I don't think Hamon can withdraw, as it would relinquish the hold his faction in the PS finally have over the party. They can blame the result on Hollande. While its imploding its still a usefull tool for the legislatives, as discussed previously.   

Add to that, if Hamon withdraws now, then the PS will obviously miss the 5% threshold to have their campaign costs refunded. So there is obviously a huge financial incentive to stay in.

[jaichind]

Latest Odoxa poll

Macron      23.5 (-2.5)
Le Pen       23.0 (-2.0)
Fillon         18.0 (+1.5)
Melenchon 18.0 (+2.0)
Hamon        9.0 (+1.0)

Melenchon peaking at the right time.  If this poll is true and Hamon falls another point of two then most of his support might just tactically vote Melenchon

[Tirnam]

Tracking polls

OpinonWay
Le Pen: 25% (=)
Macron: 24% (=)
Fillon: 20% (=)
Mélenchon: 16% (=)
Hamon: 10% (=)

Second round: Macron 62% (+2), Le Pen 38%

Ifop
Le Pen: 24.5% (=)
Macron: 23.5% (-0.5)
Fillon:  18.5% (=)
Mélenchon: 17% (+0.5)
Hamon: 9%

Second round: Macron 59%, Le Pen 41%

[DavidB.]

Some reactions after the US strike on Syria

-Macron said yesterday, before the strike, that he was in favor of a military operation under the UN
-Le Pen is surprised by Trump's decision to "become the policeman of the world"
-Fillon "understands" the American strike but warns about a confrontation West-Russia
-Hamon: Assad is the only responsible for the strike
-Mélenchon: no reaction yet after the strike, he said yesterday that the crime must be punished.

Hamon and Macron with the only sane responses, it seems.

[Barnes]

(Surely Hamon is becoming more of a non-factor & he will collapse probably - Would Melenchon gain if Hamon withdraws because some voters may shift to Macron as well

I don't think Hamon can withdraw, as it would relinquish the hold his faction in the PS finally have over the party. They can blame the result on Hollande. While its imploding its still a usefull tool for the legislatives, as discussed previously.   

Add to that, if Hamon withdraws now, then the PS will obviously miss the 5% threshold to have their campaign costs refunded. So there is obviously a huge financial incentive to stay in.

Exactly. And as most of the leadership (and probably Harmon himself) would prefer Macron over Melenchon, there would be no incentive to do that.

[Beet]

(Surely Hamon is becoming more of a non-factor & he will collapse probably - Would Melenchon gain if Hamon withdraws because some voters may shift to Macron as well

I don't think Hamon can withdraw, as it would relinquish the hold his faction in the PS finally have over the party. They can blame the result on Hollande. While its imploding its still a usefull tool for the legislatives, as discussed previously.   

Add to that, if Hamon withdraws now, then the PS will obviously miss the 5% threshold to have their campaign costs refunded. So there is obviously a huge financial incentive to stay in.

Exactly. And as most of the leadership (and probably Harmon himself) would prefer Macron over Melenchon, there would be no incentive to do that.

If Hamon was doing well people would have pointed it as more proof "Boinie woulda won!!$!"

[Sorenroy]

Looking at Wikipedia's polling average, it looks like Le Pen, for the first time, has taken first place (I know France has two rounds, but still):



(I would resize the image, but I sadly don't know how to do that.)

[Tirnam]

For the first time ? She's leading for the first round since 3 years.

Poll BVA

Macron: 23% (-2)
Le Pen: 23% (-1)
Fillon: 19% (=)
Mélenchon: 19% (+4)
Hamon: 8.5% (-3)

Second round: Macron 61% (+1), Le Pen 39%

[America Needs R'hllor]

Wow, Melenchon really is surging. He turned from a factor taking votes away from PS to a real threat, like Le Pen. I'm really worried by whats's happening to Macron's numbers.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I'll admit, part of me would love to see a Le Pen-Mélenchon runoff.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

lol