Most people tend to think Gerry would have had it rough and finished in 1981 a mediocre president.
But tbh I don't think he would have done as bad as Carter did. Carter was an extremely naive optimist who himself admitted that he did a terrible job of reaching out to people. He was too much of an outsider who was extremely vague on what he wanted to do. Ford on the other hand was a master at congress and knew how to use that to his advantage. I see more successful stuff being passed or at least Ford trying to pass his versions of it.
Domestically I think he would have done better than Carter did. The economy was on the up for most of 76. His tax cuts were working and things were going well. He wanted to do more to help make things more efficient and keep creating jobs, he had almost 4 million new ones by July 76. He wanted to pass some more tax changes and de-regulate some industries. IDK if that could have worked but the tax thing could have. He wanted to have more domestic drilling too which could have helped if the 79 oil crisis came around.
The main thing that I am 50/50 on is Iran. He could either refused the Shah or let him in. I like to think he would have done the former but who knows. Either way it would have made or broke the 4 years.
Economy wise it's really iffy to say. He could have easily improved things in long term or he could have just made them stay where they were until his last year or so and his successor would have had to deal with it. Inflation would have been a headache regardless.
As for who would have followed I say a democrat it would have been. Reps would have been in for 11 years and that's a good while. I see Dole getting the nom with Bush as his VP, and the Dems nominating Kennedy, Brown, or Mondale. I see Brown getting it more than anything. Kennedy would stay out and Mondale was a bore.
Brown/Bentsen-321 EV's, 51%
Dole/Bush-217 EV's, 44%
Anderson/Lucey-0 EV's, 5%
Anderson kills Dole and the Reps chances. Debate happens in RL and Brown wins with his version of Reagan's pitch. Reagan is just bitter he is not the lead here, the party stays more moderate and conservatism doesn't happen for the Reps.
Brown is there at least until 84 but if he's half as bit as successful as Reagan was he would be in until 89, where Bentsen gets it until 92 or 96.
I think in the end Ford would have went down as a fine President. Not the best or worst he did the best with a rough as hell situation.
It is entirely possible that Ford would have supported the Shah much more than Carter in lead up to the Iranian Revolution, which might have resulted a much more bloodshed in the Revolution than in RL (I know that the Shah killed about 60,000 people during the Revolution in RL, so the death toll would probably be much higher if the US directly supported the Shah).
