Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote

[TheSaint250]

You all know how I am about political Moderates

LET'S GO MODERATES

[TheSaint250]

Moderatpartiet is actually, despite the name, more or less the mainstream right-of-Center party, towards the conservative end of their coalition.

I know, just memeing

My dad was actually a member of their youth organization in college and went to several of their camps/retreats. His older brother (my uncle, who still lives in Sweden) is in the Center Party, who are more libertarian

Oh, that's pretty cool! The Center Party seems like a pretty good party too.  If you don't mind, where would you side?

[TheSaint250]

Moderatpartiet is actually, despite the name, more or less the mainstream right-of-Center party, towards the conservative end of their coalition.

I know, just memeing

My dad was actually a member of their youth organization in college and went to several of their camps/retreats. His older brother (my uncle, who still lives in Sweden) is in the Center Party, who are more libertarian

Oh, that's pretty cool! The Center Party seems like a pretty good party too.  If you don't mind, where would you side?

I’d probably swing between Liberals and Center. I was a big Reinfeldt fan but Moderates are tacking right to box out SD, who are godawful.

Ah ok. Thanks!

[TheSaint250]

I doubt AfS will have much of an impact, but hopefully this continues to push radical elements out of SD.

[TheSaint250]

If it comes down to it, would SD do a confidence-and-supply deal with The Alliance? Would such an agreement have to be agreed upon by The Alliance, or could SD just do it if they want?

[TheSaint250]

If it comes down to it, would SD do a confidence-and-supply deal with The Alliance? Would such an agreement have to be agreed upon by The Alliance, or could SD just do it if they want?

SD is free to vote for Alliance budgets if they want. However, I'm not sure the Allicance would form a government if they didn't know their budget was guaranteed to pass. It is also not clear that SD would offer supply and confidence without anything in return (I doubt it). And, crucially, C (and maybe L) probably wouldn't agree to any such deal with SD.

It looks like without SD support, Alliance can't get enough to form a government, and with SD support, some Alliance parties would leave. Are their chances of forming a government pretty much non-existent at the moment?

[TheSaint250]

It looks like without SD support, Alliance can't get enough to form a government, and with SD support, some Alliance parties would leave. Are their chances of forming a government pretty much non-existent at the moment?

The most recent Sentio poll has SD on 23%, Moderates on 19.5% and KD on 4.8%. With the Liberals and FI below the threshold, that is enough for a majority. So it is possible that there can be a right-wing majority, that is not dependent on the two pro-immigration parties. I don't know exactly how strong the Reinfeldt/Bildt etc. wing is within the Moderates, but with a result like the Sentio poll, there should be a decent possibility of a M-KD government with SD support.

That did seem like an outlier though, if I'm not mistaken. Other polls have shown a worse result for the right-wing parties.

[TheSaint250]

It looks like without SD support, Alliance can't get enough to form a government, and with SD support, some Alliance parties would leave. Are their chances of forming a government pretty much non-existent at the moment?

The most recent Sentio poll has SD on 23%, Moderates on 19.5% and KD on 4.8%. With the Liberals and FI below the threshold, that is enough for a majority. So it is possible that there can be a right-wing majority, that is not dependent on the two pro-immigration parties. I don't know exactly how strong the Reinfeldt/Bildt etc. wing is within the Moderates, but with a result like the Sentio poll, there should be a decent possibility of a M-KD government with SD support.

That did seem like an outlier though, if I'm not mistaken. Other polls have shown a worse result for the right-wing parties.

While you're right, the thing is that the left certainly won't have anything close to a majority. So it's unclear what would happen. There has been speculation that C and/or L could join S. That'd be very controversial though and potentially a little suicidal for them. It also is unclear to what extent they want to work with V or MP (probably not very much).

Ok thanks!

[TheSaint250]

Embarrassing follow-up: turns out I have a friend running for parliament on the AFS list. The guy has turned incredibly racist in the last few years but it's still a bit of a crazy transition from the libertarian he used to be.

Though I guess if you consider support for Nelson Mandela the biggest betrayal of the post-war era and that immigration is problematic because black people are too unintelligent, there aren't a lot of options on the table.

Geez.

Have you talked to this guy since? Tried to knock some sense into him?

[TheSaint250]

Is The Alliance officially dead or just facing a lot of disagreement over immigration?

[TheSaint250]

Is The Alliance officially dead or just facing a lot of disagreement over immigration?

Officially it's still alive, I think all the Alliance parties still claim that they want an Alliance government. But everyone knows it's kind of dead due to the immigration split.

Ah. Any chance the Moderate Party reverts to how it used to be post-election?

Also, if you don't mind, who are you supporting?

[TheSaint250]

Why does YouGov continually show SD as being so much further ahead than any other poll?

[TheSaint250]

Why does YouGov continually show SD as being so much further ahead than any other poll?

I would usually say because it is an online poll and because of young people being strong Far-Right supporters. And because Sweden has high turnout, which means young people are turning out in big numbers as well, they are also very accurate (YouGov and Sentio, both online polls, were the most accurate in predicting the SD-share in 2014).

Ah ok. Makes sense.

I feel distrusting of YouGov in the Swedish election, but then again, it was the only major prediction group to predict a hung parliament in the UK last year.

[TheSaint250]

Are YouGov polls reliable in Sweden? They've largely been on the outside by showing, first, SD leading when no one else did and, now, SD leading by such large margins when no one else is.

[TheSaint250]

I wouldn't be surprised if SD ends up joining the government.

Word is the Moderates and the Centre Party have openly discussed it and seem to be leaving the door open.

[TheSaint250]

SD does want to hold a referendum, though, right? A sort of "Let's settle this once and for all"?

[TheSaint250]

Sorry if these questions have been addressed recently, but:

1. Why are SD and M falling?
2. Why are SAP rising?
3. Why are KD rising (above the threshold finally, I might add)?
4. Am I right to assume that a left-leaning government is more of a possibility than any other time within recent months?

[TheSaint250]

Prediction:

Social Democratic: 23.0%
Sweden Democrats: 19.5%
Moderate: 16.0%
Left: 11.0%
Centre: 8.0%
Liberals: 6.0%
Christian Democrats: 6.0%
Green: 5.5%

Coalition: Social Democratic-Green (Confidence & Supply: Left)

[TheSaint250]

Let’s go Swedish Social Democrats! Centre Party or Liberals!

[TheSaint250]

Following up from the post above:

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1038855817976586240

[TheSaint250]

As of right now, according to this website, Red-Green has a 2-seat lead.

Red-Green: 144
     S: 100
     V: 28
     MP: 16

Alliance: 142
     M: 69
     C: 31
     KD: 23
     L: 19

SD: 63

[TheSaint250]

It seems as though a S + MP + C + L will end up being the only viable option unless the latter two decide to accept SD backing (which seems less likely than them abandoning The Alliance).