Trump approval ratings thread 1.1

[GeorgiaModerate]

A trend to watch:

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[GeorgiaModerate]

West Virginia still holding strong for Trump

Trump approval: 62/31

He carried it by 50 points right?
So that is in line with his national job approval

Not quite - 68.7% to 26.5% for Clinton.

[GeorgiaModerate]

so much for the TRUMPSURGE

You know, it really makes a difference whether you split that after the P, or after the S.

[GeorgiaModerate]

CBS: http://www.cbsnews.com/news/trumps-handling-of-russia-investigations-weighs-on-approval-ratings

Approve 36% (-5 since April 26)
Disapprove 57%

[GeorgiaModerate]

Trump bouncing up and down, up and down with Gallup.

Some random noise in a daily tracker is only to be expected.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Pew: U.S. Image Suffers as Publics Around World Question Trump’s Leadership

http://www.pewglobal.org/2017/06/26/u-s-image-suffers-as-publics-around-world-question-trumps-leadership/

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Trump is rated significantly better than Obama (53/11) in only one country (I don't really have to name it, do I?) and slightly better (56/49) in one other, Israel.  He's rated worse than Obama in every other country surveyed, in many cases by large margins.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gallup (June 27th)

Approve 39% (+3)
Disapprove 57% (-1)

Gallup weekly also has Approve at 39 (+1 from last week).  I don't see how to get the Disapprove number unless you have a subscription.  http://www.gallup.com/poll/203207/trump-job-approval-weekly.aspx

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gallup weekly also has Approve at 39 (+1 from last week).  I don't see how to get the Disapprove number unless you have a subscription.  http://www.gallup.com/poll/203207/trump-job-approval-weekly.aspx

http://www.gallup.com/poll/203198/presidential-approval-ratings-donald-trump.aspx

Ah, thank you.  So the weekly approve disapprove is 39/56 (+1/-1).

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gallup (June 27th)

Approve 39% (+3)
Disapprove 57% (-1)

WTF Gallup?

It's noisy.  Not surprising in a daily tracker.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gallup (June 27th)

Approve 39% (+3)
Disapprove 57% (-1)

WTF Gallup?

It's noisy.  Not surprising in a daily tracker.

I get that,  but its had multiple large swings this week.

He's been in a range of 36-42 for weeks.  The MoE on these polls is +/- 3%.  It's just noisier noise than usual.

[GeorgiaModerate]

ARG NH poll: http://americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/

Approve 25%
Disapprove 60%

For registered voters, it's 27/60.  Party breakdown:

R 59/27
D 10/83
Undeclared 13/70

Must be those angry New Hampshire women.

[GeorgiaModerate]

USA Today/Suffolk, June 25-27, 1000 RV (change from March):

Approve 42% (-5)        (16% strongly approve)
Disapprove 53% (+9)   (38% strongly disapprove)

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2017/06/29/poll-donald-trump-washington-republicans-alarmed-uneasy-russia-investigation/103269454/

[GeorgiaModerate]

USA Today/Suffolk, June 25-27, 1000 RV (change from March):

Approve 42% (-5)        (16% strongly approve)
Disapprove 53% (+9)   (38% strongly disapprove)

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2017/06/29/poll-donald-trump-washington-republicans-alarmed-uneasy-russia-investigation/103269454/

Wait, he had a POSITIVE 47-44 rating from them last time? How did I not know of this?

That was three months ago.

[GeorgiaModerate]

PPP for Save My Care (D):

Colorado: 40/56 (-16)
North Carolina: 46/50 (-4)
Iowa: 46/49 (-3)

Comparing those results to the election:

CO was T-5 now -16 delta -11
NC was T+4 now -4 delta -8
IA was T+9 now -3 delta -12

Before anyone jumps on me: I realize that comparing election results to approval ratings is apples vs. oranges.  But I thought it was kind of interesting that the differences are in the same ballpark.

[GeorgiaModerate]

so he's -20 in approval, how would this translate if the election were held today? how many of the disapproving would vote for him?

It depends on his opponent, of course.  In 2016 he had the benefit of facing an opponent who was also unpopular.  Against a more popular and inspiring candidate (and I don't have any names in mind), Trump would get flattened.  If he ran against HRC or someone with equivalent baggage, it would be much closer.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Rasmussen daily, July 14: http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/prez_track_jul14

Approve 43% (27% strongly)
Disapprove 57% (48% strongly)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Rasmussen daily, July 14: http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/prez_track_jul14

Approve 43% (27% strongly)
Disapprove 57% (48% strongly)

Poor Don.  Now even his junk propaganda pollster has him significantly in the red.

By strongly disapprove, you mean never vote for?

Strongly approve and strongly disapprove are two of the options in their polls.  How the respondents define those is up to them.   For the trend on these daily polls, see also http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/trump_approval_index_history

[GeorgiaModerate]

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/trump-abc-washington-post-poll-historic-low-approval-ratings


https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/886588838902206464

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Good to see the goalposts are being shifted already. And the ABC/WaPo tracking poll had Clinton at +3 in their last poll. That is pretty accurate. More fake news from Trump

"Not bad at this time".  I wonder when he thinks it would be bad.  This is the lowest 6-month rating for a President since, well, ever.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Bloomberg, July 8-12, 1001 adults (MOE 3.1%)

Approve 40%
Disapprove 56%

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-17/americans-feel-good-about-the-economy-not-so-good-about-trump-j57v0var

Details at https://assets.bwbx.io/documents/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/r_gKveTVWIpc/v0

Trump favorable/unfavorable at 41/55 (-14); he was +7 in December.

Right track/wrong direction is 32/61 (-29); it was -12 in December.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Is there any other time other than war or recession where a Presidential approval rating has been so low?

Well, we are at war right now, in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, etc.  Post-9/11, the war never ends. 

Heh, true, but you get what I mean. I remember Clinton's first months were rocky because of DADT and a number of missteps but nothing like this. That's the closest parallel I can think of right now. It might be the worst opening months to a presidential administration since… well, forever? I wasn't alive for Ford or Carter.

This is with a *good* economy and 4.4% unemployment. It says a lot that his missteps have cost him about 10-15% of support that would normally go to a new president with a solid economy.

(Relatively solid; wage growth is relatively stagnant but you get the idea).

Ford started out OK, but his approval nosedived after his pardon of Nixon, which was a very divisive action.  (At the time I was among those unhappy with it, but over time I've gained some sympathy for the view that it was best to put the whole thing behind the country and move on.  I'm still not completely convinced of that, though.)  Carter also started out OK in approvals, but the economic problems during his term plus the Iranian hostage crisis caused him to become very unpopular.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Monmouth, July 13-16, 800 adults (MOE 3.5%)  

Approve 39% (no change from May)
Disapprove 52% (-1)

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_NJ_071717/

Impeachment is 41/53/6 yes/no/unsure.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Look, I know it's hard for incumbents to actually lose reelection but is Trump really more than likely to do so seeing he has a 55% disapproval in a state like Utah?

It's not that hard.  In the modern era (defined as elections I remember ) there have been seven incumbent Presidents running for reelection.  Two of the seven lost (Carter and Bush I).  That means it's not terribly unlikely.

If Trump ran again with his current approval ratings, against a candidate without Clinton's baggage, he'd get crushed.  One telling metric is that one of the recent national polls showed that in the counties he flipped from Obama, his current approval rating is in the low 40's.

Maybe his ratings will recover; it's a long time until 2020.  Maybe the Democrats will run another awful candidate; there's no telling.  Trump needs both to be reelected.

[GeorgiaModerate]

PPP:

Approve 41% (+1)
Disapprove 55% (+1)

Hypothetical Matchups:

Clinton 49 - Trump 42
Obama 53 - Trump 40
Biden 54 - Trump 39
Sanders 52 - Trump 39
Warren 49 - Trump 42
Booker 45 - Trump 40
Harris 41 - Trump 40
Zuckerberg 40 - Trump 40

Source

Lots of interesting data points in this poll.  A plurality (45/43) favors impeachment, and Trump is considered more corrupt than Nixon by 42/35.

[GeorgiaModerate]

PPP:

Approve 41% (+1)
Disapprove 55% (+1)

Hypothetical Matchups:

Clinton 49 - Trump 42
Obama 53 - Trump 40
Biden 54 - Trump 39
Sanders 52 - Trump 39
Warren 49 - Trump 42
Booker 45 - Trump 40
Harris 41 - Trump 40
Zuckerberg 40 - Trump 40

Source

Wow, this is encouraging. 42% of respondents were Democrats, though.

I'm surprised they didn't poll a Gillibrand matchup.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Faux News poll:



They conveniently leave out their June poll where he had a 44/50 split in this graphic.

Approvals on:

The economy: 45/46
Immigration: 42/53
North Korea: 41/45
Syria: 40/45
Iran: 37/44
Russia: 33/56
Health care: 32/59

First time he's been in the negatives on the economy.

I bet they spun it to sound favorably to him somehow.

Approvals are up since May!

It is shocking that the approvals for North Korea are as high as they ar. The country that America is most likely to go to war with and has one of the three worst political orders in the world should have a near-zero approval rating. Iran hasn't done anything to the USA in recent years. w

It's approval of Trump's handling of North Korea, not approval of North Korea itself (which I agree should be near zero).