Trump approval ratings thread 1.1

[MT Treasurer]

Hawaii-Civil Beat Poll, May 18-24:

32% Approve
59% Disapprove

Link.

[Virginiá]

(gallup)

37% Approve (+1)
57% Disapprove (+1)(-1)

FTFY

[pbrower2a]

Aloha!

Hawaii-Civil Beat Poll, May 18-24:

32% Approve
59% Disapprove

Link.

...I doubt that anyone would be surprised.

I am not using favorability polls unless the rating is uncontroversial and there is no approval poll.

The letter F shall signify a favorability poll, as the only polls that I have for Massachusetts and Oklahoma  

Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.
 
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation  

[GeorgiaModerate]

Aloha!

Hawaii-Civil Beat Poll, May 18-24:

32% Approve
59% Disapprove

Link.

...I doubt that anyone would be surprised.

I am not using favorability polls unless the rating is uncontroversial and there is no approval poll.

The letter F shall signify a favorability poll, as the only polls that I have for Massachusetts and Oklahoma  

Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.
 
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation  

The map has an F on Arizona too.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gallup weekly (as opposed to daily) ending 6/4, change from previous week:

Approve: 38 (-3)
Disapprove: 56 (+2)

Per https://twitter.com/PollsAndVotes/status/871806315546497025, this is a return to previous levels after an uptick last week.

[tallguy23]

[/quote]
I'd laugh if the democrats retake the house and senate, pass a bunch of popular legislation, and trump signs it and becomes more popular and wins reelection.

It would be bill clinton all over again.
[/quote]

That would be his best bet, but I doubt he's smart enough to do that.

[GeorgiaModerate]

He'd just veto everything out of spite for Schumer and Pelosi. Not because he actually believes in anything conservative.

There is zero chance of Congressional Democrats getting along or cooperating with Trump. This "If 2018 is a Democratic wave, 2020 will be a GOP landslide" talk needs to stop. Trump can write his concession speech if the Democrats win back the House in 2018, and I'm sure even he knows it.

Agree.  At a minimum, if the Democrats win the House then Trump's tax returns will probably be subpoeaned by the new Oversight chairman before the sun sets on Jan. 3, 2019 (assuming they haven't come out before then).

[Tintrlvr]

He'd just veto everything out of spite for Schumer and Pelosi. Not because he actually believes in anything conservative.

There is zero chance of Congressional Democrats getting along or cooperating with Trump. This "If 2018 is a Democratic wave, 2020 will be a GOP landslide" talk needs to stop. Trump can write his concession speech if the Democrats win the House in 2018, and I'm sure even he knows it.

I don't agree with Trump becoming a Bill Clinton who can work with Congress to gain popularity at all. Those days are long gone. But I can imagine Trump running against a Democratic House in 2020 to eke out a win again (not saying it'd be likely by any means, but I can see it energizing his voter base, which is absolutely terrified of Democrats because they think they're all terrorists or something.

This is just not how it works. The public is completely clueless when it comes to who controls Congress at any given time and ascribes everything that happens in the country, good or bad, to the President and the party that controls the Presidency, irrespective of Congress.

[Technocracy Timmy]

According to 538, President Trump seems to have currently stabilized around 39% these past two weeks.

[Sir Mohamed]

He'd just veto everything out of spite for Schumer and Pelosi. Not because he actually believes in anything conservative.

There is zero chance of Congressional Democrats getting along or cooperating with Trump. This "If 2018 is a Democratic wave, 2020 will be a GOP landslide" talk needs to stop. Trump can write his concession speech if the Democrats win the House in 2018, and I'm sure even he knows it.

Why? History has proven more than once that this must not be the case. We had several first-term presidents with disastrous midterms who then went on to win re-election two years later. Truman 1946/48 (even won congress back), Eisenhower 1954/56, Clinton 1994/96 and Obama 2010/12. In 2020, Trump could rally against Dems and blame them for getting nothing done. He’ll do it, and his base will believe it. He’ll even blame Dems for his legislative failures during the 2017-18 congress.

[Tintrlvr]

He'd just veto everything out of spite for Schumer and Pelosi. Not because he actually believes in anything conservative.

There is zero chance of Congressional Democrats getting along or cooperating with Trump. This "If 2018 is a Democratic wave, 2020 will be a GOP landslide" talk needs to stop. Trump can write his concession speech if the Democrats win the House in 2018, and I'm sure even he knows it.

I don't agree with Trump becoming a Bill Clinton who can work with Congress to gain popularity at all. Those days are long gone. But I can imagine Trump running against a Democratic House in 2020 to eke out a win again (not saying it'd be likely by any means, but I can see it energizing his voter base, which is absolutely terrified of Democrats because they think they're all terrorists or something.

This is just not how it works. The public is completely clueless when it comes to who controls Congress at any given time and ascribes everything that happens in the country, good or bad, to the President and the party that controls the Presidency, irrespective of Congress.

Notice I said his voters

Who the f cares? Trump can't win in 2020 solely on the back of people who voted for him in 2016 (not to mention that a good chunk of those people are not "his voter base" and voted for him reluctantly).

[Tintrlvr]

He'd just veto everything out of spite for Schumer and Pelosi. Not because he actually believes in anything conservative.

There is zero chance of Congressional Democrats getting along or cooperating with Trump. This "If 2018 is a Democratic wave, 2020 will be a GOP landslide" talk needs to stop. Trump can write his concession speech if the Democrats win the House in 2018, and I'm sure even he knows it.

I don't agree with Trump becoming a Bill Clinton who can work with Congress to gain popularity at all. Those days are long gone. But I can imagine Trump running against a Democratic House in 2020 to eke out a win again (not saying it'd be likely by any means, but I can see it energizing his voter base, which is absolutely terrified of Democrats because they think they're all terrorists or something.

This is just not how it works. The public is completely clueless when it comes to who controls Congress at any given time and ascribes everything that happens in the country, good or bad, to the President and the party that controls the Presidency, irrespective of Congress.

Notice I said his voters

Who the f cares? Trump can't win in 2020 solely on the back of people who voted for him in 2016 (not to mention that a good chunk of those people are not "his base").

While I don't think Trump is favored to win reelection, people here are in for a rude awakening if they're assuming he's gonna lose in 2020. There is a significant amount of people that Hillary and Johnson won who Trump can get back, or if Warren or someone else very nauseating was his opponent, probably get them to vote third party again.

That wasn't my point, or even your point originally. Don't try to redirect. Your argument that Trump could plausibly blame the country's problems on a hypothetical Democratic Congress elected in 2018 is pure fantasy. That says nothing about whether Trump could win reelection.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Warren is liberal, but she doesn't have the baggage that Clinton did.  If present trends continue, I think she'd beat Trump.  Although I don't think Trump is likely to run for re-election, if he's even still in office in 2020.  He's an old man and clearly doesn't enjoy the job.  If the Democrats win the House in 2018, it's going to become even less enjoyable for him.

Question: assuming Trump does run again, who is the best Democratic candidate to oppose him?  This could be someone not necessarily on the radar at this point.  In 2013 nobody expected Trump to be the next President; similarly for Bill Clinton in 1989, etc.

[Virginiá]

Gallup (June 5th)

Approve 38% (+1)
Disapprove 57% (-/-)

[Middle-aged Europe]

I suspect he could recover to 40% or so till the middle of the week, until he starts to drop again after the Comey testimony on Thursday.

[GeorgiaModerate]

538's average (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/) is at its lowest point yet, 38.6/55.7 for a net -17.1.

[Holmes]

34/57 in Quinnipiac.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Quinnipiac (change from May 24):

Approve 34 (-3)
Disapprove 57 (+2)

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2462

[GeorgiaModerate]

Quinnipiac (change from May 24):

Approve 34 (-3)
Disapprove 57 (+2)

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2462

The whole release is worth reading.  It's full of terrible numbers for Trump on a variety of issues.

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[Gass3268]

68 - 29 percent that he is not level headed
59 - 36 percent that he is not honest;
58 - 39 percent that he does not have good leadership skills;
58 - 40 percent that he does not care about average Americans;
62 - 35 percent that he is a strong person;
57 - 40 percent that he is intelligent;
64 - 33 percent that he does not share their values.

White w/ no college degree: 46 - 43 approve

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

34/57 in Quinnipiac.

Yep. The climate withdrawal is definitely hurting him.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Strongly approve/disapprove is 25/51.  Is this the first poll in which he's had over 50% strong disapproval?

[heatcharger]

That 18-29 number is particularly abysmal, but it's a smaller subsample.

Also, his favorability is reaching pre-election levels.

[Yank2133]

GOP really going to go to bat for a President with a 34% approval rating?

[Virginiá]

Gallup (June 6th)

Approve 38% (-/-)
Disapprove 57% (-/-)