538: MO, NH, KY Most Likely Seats to Flip

[HAnnA MArin County]

I don't know if this forum-worthy or not, but you can understand why I chose to post it.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/06/senate-rankings-june-2009-edition.html :

1. Missouri (R-Open)
I'd promised a couple of weeks ago that we'd have a new #1, and it's Missouri, which displaces the spot that New Hampshire had held for the previous two months. Secretary of State Robin Carnahan, a Democrat, has maintained a pretty consistent polling lead. She also has had an easier time with fundraising than Republicans like Roy Blunt and has a cute picture of a pony on her website. What's not to like? Missouri, as always, will be competitive, but Democrats may simply have the more appealing candidate here.

2. New Hampshire (R-Open)
In New Hampshire, we now have a poll from the University of New Hampshire that puts Paul Hodes slightly behind prospective Republican opponent (and former senator) John E. Sununu. If you want to nitpick, UNH polls have a reputation for being a bit erratic, and this was a poll of all adults rather than registered voters (though generally speaking polling adults rather than registered voters tends to help Democrats). Nevertheless, when coupled with somewhat tepid 1Q fundraising numbers for Hodes, this argues for treating this race as more of a toss-up and less of a Lean Democrat. On the other hand, there are not yet any declared Republican candidates, and there is a chance that the Republicans won't nominate a candidate even as strong as Sununu or former U.S. Rep Charlie Bass, whom Hodes defeated in the Democratic wave election of 2006.

...
1. Missouri (R-Open, Kit Bond)
2. New Hampshire (R-Open, Judd Gregg)
3. Kentucky (R-Jim Bunning)
4. Connecticut (D-Chris Dodd)
5. Ohio (R-Open, George Voinovich)
6. Delaware (D-Open, Ted Kaufman)
7. Nevada (D-Harry Reid)
8. Colorado (D-Michael Bennet)
9. North Carolina (R-Richard Burr)
10. Texas (R-Open?, Kay Bailey Hutchison)
11. Illinois (D-Roland Burris)
12. Pennsylvania (D-Arlen Specter)
13. Louisiana (R-David Vitter)
14. Florida (R-Open, Mel Martinez)
15. New York B (D-Kirsten Gillibrand)

Take it away, boys and girls.

[HAnnA MArin County]

Switch Connecticut and Ohio.

Kentucky is obviously difficult to judge... if Bunning is the nominee then it's ours, if he doesn't then it's probably a lost cause.

Is there an word on Castle running in Delaware?

There's a few others that I might nitpick as well... it's just too early to really know (or care quite frankly).

I agree about Connecticut and Ohio. Seems a lot more likely that we're going to pick up Ohio than the Republicans are going to take Connecticut.

Kentucky is interesting. Even if Bunning retires, it still might be a close race. If you look at 2008, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell was just narrowly elected over Bruce Lunsford, a businessman, by 7 points at the same time John McCain swept the state by 16 points. If Bunning retires, who are the Republicans going to nominate? We obviously have two top-drawer candidates in Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo and Attorney General Jack Conway (I'm rooting for Conway) who have statewide name recognition and have won statewide office. I could see them nominating Secretary of State Trey Grayson, which would make it a competitive race, but if 2010 is a repeat of 2008, I think Democrats will have the edge, even in Kentucky, where Barack Obama won't be on the ticket which will help Democrats in the Bluegrass State.

Haven't heard anything about Mike Castle in Delaware. Last I saw is that he is leaning towards running, but hasn't made it official. If he enters, we'll probably lose Delaware but will probably pick up his seat in the U.S. House of Representatives. If not, any generic Democrat should hang onto the seat.

[HAnnA MArin County]

I would put NC higher up on the list as i really think Burr is vulnerable. He ran well behind Bush in 2004 and no one seems to even realize he's a senator lol

I think he knows he's in trouble after watching what happened in his state in 2008. But it will be an interesting race to watch to see how North Carolina will vote without Obama on top of the ticket. I don't think the African American turnout in the state will be as high, but Obama didn't really have coattails for Kay Hagan and Beverly Perdue because they both did better than Obama did in NC. You gotta hand it to Kay Hagan though, I mean, for an unknown state senator to just come out of the woodwork and get her party's nomination and then knock off an incumbent with the last name Dole is pretty darn impressive.