MO-SEN 2018: The Megathread

[Pollster]

My guess is there is a solid 46-47% of the electorate that won't vote for McCaskill under any circumstances. Getting that electorate to turn out (Akin's problem) and finding the necessary votes to hit a win number (Talent's problem) will be the deciding factors. I doubt Petersen accomplishes either one.

[vanguard96]

Austin's a great guy, he called me yesterday... he has a growing fanbase and I legitimately think that he could win the primaries and defeat McCaskill. People always underestimate libertarians in congress, for example Kentucky. Before 2010, the Kentucky senate went to either democrats, or republicans in close calls. Rand won in a landslide and was the nominee easily.

My LP friend campaigned for him in the LP primary. He shared his new donation pages. Is he definitely running as a Republican this time? He had expressed some frustration with the LP last time out. He's quite the doctrinaire type and has had some interesting points. 

[Ashley Biden's Diary]

Anyone would defeat McCaskill.

[Former Senator Haslam2020]

He has an exploratory committee up. I say he runs. Will he won the primaries? Maybe. Depends on how many opponents he has. I think it'll be a toss up race, but he may be able to pull it out.

[BlueDogDemocrat]

I think he will run but I just don't see him wining against McCaskill although the overall race will be close with her winning by 2-4 points in the end

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

10% in GOP primary tops.

[Senator Spiral]

Wow, he's really gonna do it. Can't wait to vote against this asshole.

[Senator Spiral]

I think he will run but I just don't see him wining against McCaskill although the overall race will be close with her winning by 2-4 points in the end

Missourians aren't really libertarianish in nature. She'd probably win by closer to ten points than that. She's more Trumpy than Peterson is

That, and many of the more religious voters may not be enthused by how he's an open atheist.

[BlueDogDemocrat]

I think he will run but I just don't see him wining against McCaskill although the overall race will be close with her winning by 2-4 points in the end

Missourians aren't really libertarianish in nature. She'd probably win by closer to ten points than that. She's more Trumpy than Peterson is

That, and many of the more religious voters may not be enthused by how he's an open atheist.

I think that could really hurt him. I think whoever his opponent is in the primary will attack him hard for being an atheist, so I doubt that he would be able to win the primary in the first place.

[Pollster]

Great to see young atheists running for office but this is the wrong state in the wrong year.

[MT Treasurer]

I know the McCaskill fan club is grasping at straws, but can we stop pretending that this guy will be the nominee?

[Vosem]

10% in GOP primary tops.

He can try to run a Rand Paul 2010 style campaign and paint himself as the "Tea Party", true conservative option, or...that would the alternative if he runs on the themes from his "presidential" 2016 bid, yeah.

I'd love for more people like Petersen in the GOP caucus, myself, but I don't think my perspective is close to a typical MOGOP one

[heatcharger]

C'mon Austin!

[TheSaint250]

Petersen isn't DOA

[MT Treasurer]

Petersen isn't DOA

In the general? No, though I agree that he'd be a weak candidate.
In the primary? Yes.

I'll be very surprised if the nominee isn't either Hawley or Wagner. In any case, I hope Missouri Republicans have learned their lesson from 2012 and 2016.

[TheSaint250]

Petersen isn't DOA

In the general? No, though I agree that he'd be a weak candidate.
In the primary? Yes.

I'll be very surprised if the nominee isn't either Hawley or Wagner. In any case, I hope Missouri Republicans have learned their lesson from 2012 and 2016.

I hope so too

[jamestroll]

Petersen isn't DOA

In the general? No, though I agree that he'd be a weak candidate.
In the primary? Yes.

I'll be very surprised if the nominee isn't either Hawley or Wagner. In any case, I hope Missouri Republicans have learned their lesson from 2012 and 2016.

I hope so too

What lesson? They did well in 2016.

Anyways Peterson may not be DOA. I still have memories on how the Kentucky 2010 Senate race was supposed to be a possible Democratic pick up because Kentuckians are not libertarian people. It it does end up being McCaskill vs Peterson I would see this contest as the only match up in which McCaskill would be favored.  Also there is no Democratic president the voters to protest and Austin Peterson is not exactly going to be the biggest Trump ally either.

[jamestroll]

bump..

Let's hope Austin Peterson is the nominee so McCaskill can breeze to a third term that she is not supposed to win.

Not that she is necessarily DOA against Hawley or Wagner.

[_]

bump..

Let's hope Austin Peterson is the nominee so McCaskill can breeze to a third term that she is not supposed to win.

Not that she is necessarily DOA against Hawley or Wagner.

Please god Peterson join the primary, he'll never win but he should siphon of Conservative votes and give Wagner the primary.

[MT Treasurer]

McCaskill is "back in the news", so to speak:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://edition.cnn.com/2017/06/26/politics/mccaskill-russian-ambassador/index.html
http://www.kansascity.com/opinion/editorials/article159180434.html
http://www.newsmax.com/Politics/Claire-McCaskill-meeting-ambassador-Twitter/2017/06/26/id/798359/

[_]

McCaskill is "back in the news", so to speak:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://edition.cnn.com/2017/06/26/politics/mccaskill-russian-ambassador/index.html
http://www.kansascity.com/opinion/editorials/article159180434.html
http://www.newsmax.com/Politics/Claire-McCaskill-meeting-ambassador-Twitter/2017/06/26/id/798359/

I remember this from a couple months back, it just became a story again now?

[SATW]

Wagner or Petersen, I hope one of them beats McCaskill. 12 years of her has been 12 years too long.

[Coraxion]

bump..

Let's hope Austin Peterson is the nominee so McCaskill can breeze to a third term that she is not supposed to win.

Not that she is necessarily DOA against Hawley or Wagner.

What do you mean? It doesn't matter who the GOP nominates. McCaskill is going to win reelection by a landslide and win the White House in 2020. The subsequent special election wouldn't be a problem, because the Democratic nominee for that would have McCaskill's blessing. The blessing of McCaskill is all a Democrat needs to win in Missouri, because McCaskill is beloved by all Missourians.

Claire McCaskill 2020!

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

bump..

Let's hope Austin Peterson is the nominee so McCaskill can breeze to a third term that she is not supposed to win.

Not that she is necessarily DOA against Hawley or Wagner.

What do you mean? It doesn't matter who the GOP nominates. McCaskill is going to win reelection by a landslide and win the White House in 2020. The subsequent special election wouldn't be a problem, because the Democratic nominee for that would have McCaskill's blessing. The blessing of McCaskill is all a Democrat needs to win in Missouri, because McCaskill is beloved by all Missourians.

Claire McCaskill 2020!

This... -_-...

[Lachi]

If Todd Akin had not been the GOP nominee in 2012, she would have lost. Missouri is that kind of red now and I don't buy that she'll survive another term barring a huge Democratic wave. Missouri went Trump by 20 points, and she's underwater in approval ratings, right? She's been long regarded with a jaundiced eye in Missouri.

Kander, on the other hand, has a strong profile and is a rising star without her baggage.

according to Morning Consult in April, her ratings were at 47/39, a net of +8.