MO-SEN 2018: The Megathread (user search)
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  MO-SEN 2018: The Megathread (search mode)
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Poll
Question: Rate this race
#1
Safe D		  
#2
Likely D		  
#3
Lean D		  
#4
Tilt D		  
#5
Tossup		  
#6
Tilt R		  
#7
Lean R		  
#8
Likely R		  
#9
Safe R		  
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results
Total Voters: 284

Author Topic: MO-SEN 2018: The Megathread  (Read 130795 times)
Pollster
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« on: May 05, 2017, 12:59:39 PM »
My GCS poll of this race, in the field May 3-5, is now complete. My apologies for the small sample size, I was pressed for funds.

The final results show that McCaskill begins with a slight lead over Hawley, but a plurality of the electorate is undecided.

Respondents were presented with the following question with randomized answer choices:
In November 2018, Missourians will go to the polls to vote for a U.S. Senator. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote or lean towards voting?
Democrat Claire McCaskill
Republican Josh Hawley
Unsure
I am not likely/registered to vote. (always last)

Raw results were as follows:
Democrat Claire McCaskill - 24.8%
Republican Josh Hawley - 28.7%
Unsure - 29.6%
I am not likely/registered to vote. - 17.0%
(335 respondents, MOE +/- 5.31%)

Raw results with unlikely/unregistered voters and unknown age/gender removed were as follows:
Democrat Claire McCaskill - 32.3%
Republican Josh Hawley - 30.9%
Unsure - 36.8%
(223 respondents, MOE +/- 6.53%)

Final results weighted to 2016 MO Senate turnout:
Democrat Claire McCaskill - 34.7%
Republican Josh Hawley - 29.8%
Unsure - 35.5%
(221 respondents, MOE +/- 6.56%)

Full frequencies and crosstabs available here (I am not yet allowed to post links): drive.google.com/file/d/0B_w-oF5U9Rw8b0FTakE1cU80R28/view?usp=sharing.

I will try to do more polling of additional races as my schedule and funds allow!
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Pollster
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« Reply #1 on: May 05, 2017, 01:40:28 PM »
Analysis and Key Takeaways:

-McCaskill is significantly weaker among all adults but gains strength when the sample is reduced to likely/registered voters. This could be a sign of Democratic enthusiasm, but because GCS doesn't provide party affiliation it is not possible to know with this data set. Regardless, GOP efforts right now should be focused on voter registration.

-No name rec data in this set unfortunately, but probably safe to assume that McCaskill's is higher than Hawley, if only by a small amount. If true, McCaskill's lead and the high # of undecideds could be attributed to that.

-It's a small subsample, but the youngest group of voters are overwhelmingly undecided. My guess is because of unfamiliarity with both candidates and McCaskill ends up winning among this demo. Not a given, though, and she should be working to win them over as fast as possible.

-McCaskill and Hawley's leads in urban and rural areas, respectively, are predictable. McCaskill's early strength in suburbs are very telling, and this could be very different in a McCaskill/Wagner matchup.

-McCaskill numbers are very strong with elderly voters. If her margins with this demo hold and she is able to win over young voters in large enough numbers, she will win reelection so long as she can hold Hawley below certain percentages with middle age voters.

-Hawley's likeliest path to victory right now looks to be defining himself positively, upping voter registration among middle age and rural voters and turning out Trump-level numbers in rural MO. Winning over young voters not a bad idea but probably not best strategy since this demo leans Dem nationwide.

-Overall, a good but far from great poll for Dems. If additional polls with smaller MOE's corroborate this data, then McCaskill's path to reelection seems clear to me at this very early stage.
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Pollster
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« Reply #2 on: May 14, 2017, 04:01:16 PM »
I like McCaskill and many of my connections from Missouri this past election cycle say that they are cautiously optimistic based on what they have seen so far, but she has benefited throughout her entire Senate career from favorable cycles and damaged opponents. She may very well end up with the first yet again if 2018 turns into an anti-Trump wave, but she could very well face a competent opponent making it still fairly difficult.

What is ironic is that if she survives 2018, her reelection in 2024 could prove to be yet another favorable cycle for her if Democrats are highly energized after potentially eight years of Donald Trump, a la 2008. Some people are just lucky.
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Pollster
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« Reply #3 on: June 25, 2017, 08:23:43 PM »
My guess is there is a solid 46-47% of the electorate that won't vote for McCaskill under any circumstances. Getting that electorate to turn out (Akin's problem) and finding the necessary votes to hit a win number (Talent's problem) will be the deciding factors. I doubt Petersen accomplishes either one.
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Pollster
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« Reply #4 on: July 01, 2017, 01:16:07 PM »
Great to see young atheists running for office but this is the wrong state in the wrong year.
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Pollster
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« Reply #5 on: July 03, 2017, 04:23:21 PM »
This is not a recruitment fail and is incredibly good news for the GOP. We tested numerous lines of attack against Wagner from both the left and right and she sunk like a stone. GOP wants Hawley who is a much stronger candidate and will likely hold McCaskill under 50%.
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Pollster
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« Reply #6 on: July 04, 2017, 06:23:06 PM »
To the poster above who says the Wagner criticism is only coming because she dropped out - Wagner was never a strong candidate statewide for Missouri. Throughout her career, she cast a handful of unceremonial and little-publicized votes and occasionally backed what was likely intentionally-longshot bills and resolutions that were a good fit for her district but would have made her anathema to MO's rural GOP base. Granted McCaskill's record is anathema to these voters as well, but McCaskill doesn't necessarily need them to win like Wagner would especially in a Trump midterm.

Hawley is a better fit for the state's base and has less baggage largely due to lack of electoral history - though the history he does have is red meat for the MO GOP voters. He will be a formidable challenger to McCaskill unless his primary against Petersen is especially bruising.

Personally, I would be on the look out to see if McCaskill works behind the scenes to advance Petersen in the primary.
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Pollster
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« Reply #7 on: August 31, 2017, 02:00:14 PM »
Interesting piece on McCaskill's campaign tactics:
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/08/30/claire-mccaskill-senate-dems-2018-215556
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Pollster
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« Reply #8 on: November 26, 2017, 06:23:48 PM »
I've conducted a tracking poll of this race using GCS, but with my own methodology and analysis to fix the obvious problems GCS has. The first round was conducted in early October, the second round in late November. High margins of error for both but data nonetheless. Below is the link to the results. Enjoy!

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1k7_LfBC31DB15sxE4vF-eYvuC79jLOhi/view?usp=sharing
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Pollster
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« Reply #9 on: January 25, 2018, 04:02:53 PM »
Looks like McCaskill found her candidate.

https://www.rawstory.com/2018/01/gop-senate-candidate-flips-womens-rights-want-come-home-cooked-dinner-every-night/
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Pollster
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« Reply #10 on: January 25, 2018, 07:26:46 PM »
The chances are slim with party machinery lined up behind Hawley, but it would be remarkable if the GOP is forced to surrender this seat again due to a horribly gaffe-prone candidate.
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Pollster
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« Reply #11 on: January 25, 2018, 07:33:11 PM »

The situation is not even remotely similar - Akin was a sitting congressman with prominent endorsements and a voting record very appealing to the base.

So far all I have seen is an email from McCaskill attempting to fundraise off of this, which is not surprising.
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Pollster
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« Reply #12 on: February 01, 2018, 11:58:54 AM »
Yeah, very little chance Hawley's campaign leaked this. No reason to give McCaskill ammo on one of the strongest issues she has.
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Pollster
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« Reply #13 on: February 03, 2018, 04:03:06 PM »
Wouldn't be too surprising to me if it was Wagner who leaked the Hawley quote.

Getting in now would be terrific strategy: allow Hawley to be branded as gaffe-prone and both the McConnell and Bannon candidate, frame herself as battle-tested, running only on her own inclination without establishment or anti-establishment support (despite her closeness to leadership).

Still doubt she gets in, and if she gets in, she probably loses. Long voting record with a lot of eyebrow-raisers McCaskill can easily exploit.
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Pollster
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« Reply #14 on: February 04, 2018, 12:26:50 PM »
Some Mo. residents say robo call says Ann Wagner is running for Senate
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Pollster
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« Reply #15 on: February 08, 2018, 12:06:56 PM »
Democrats appear to be utilizing the ballot initiatives very strategically this year - RTW in Missouri, felon voting rights in Florida, automatic voter registration in Nevada, redistricting in Ohio (!), and marijuana initiatives going through the process in multiple states.

I expect to see more of this.
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Pollster
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« Reply #16 on: March 03, 2018, 01:33:00 PM »
With Missouri's notable evangelical base, I wouldn't be surprised to see McCaskill airing "attack" ads against Sykes soon after the Moore endorsement.
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Pollster
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« Reply #17 on: May 15, 2018, 03:53:40 PM »
Looks like the GOP is prepping Hawley for the Rick Saccone treatment. A shame, as he is very young and this will likely dim his star substantially.
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Pollster
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« Reply #18 on: May 21, 2018, 06:37:55 PM »
The FBI is now involved in the Greitens case
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Pollster
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« Reply #19 on: June 11, 2018, 04:48:21 PM »
Are there any other outlets reporting/speculating this besides that one tweet?
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Pollster
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« Reply #20 on: September 17, 2018, 12:27:54 PM »
McCaskill out with a strong, personal ad on healthcare
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Pollster
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« Reply #21 on: November 01, 2018, 09:06:21 AM »
Looks like a solid oppo drop hit yesterday
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