GOP House pick-ups in CDs that had been Democratic since before the 1990's

[nclib]

AR-1
AR-2
FL-2
IL-17
MI-1
MN-8
MS-4
MO-4
ND-AL
PA-11
SC-5
TN-6
TN-8
TX-17
VA-9
WV-1
WI-7

CA-20 if goes GOP
TX-27 if goes GOP

Almost all of these are in the South or Midwest. Most are socially conservative, with 13/17 voting for McCain. Does anyone know approximately when any of these districts were last represented by a Republican?

[DrScholl]

AR-1: Not represented by a Republican since reconstruction.
AR-2: The last Republican was Tommy Robinson, who was switched to Republican in 1990.
FL-2: Another party switcher, James Grant was the last Republican here when he switched in 1989.
MS-4: Republican Larkin Smith was elected in 1988, but died in office.
ND-AL: Republican Mark Andrews was last elected in 1978
TN-6: Not since Reconstruction.
TN-8: Not since the 1920s, maybe longer
TX-17: Not since it was created in 1883.

[Meeker]

On a related note, John Boozman is the first Republican to hold that Senate seat since Reconstruction.

[cinyc]

Does anyone know approximately when any of these districts were last represented by a Republican?

How does one define this when CD boundaries in other-than-at-large states change over time?  All parts of the district in prior decades?  Any part of the district in prior decades?  The CD with the same number, regardless of whether it moved within the state?

[hfred]

WA-3 was represented by Republican Linda Smith from 1995 to 1999.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Does anyone know approximately when any of these districts were last represented by a Republican?

How does one define this when CD boundaries in other-than-at-large states change over time?  All parts of the district in prior decades?  Any part of the district in prior decades?  The CD with the same number, regardless of whether it moved within the state?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_congressional_delegations_from_Kentucky

Tracking Hal Rogers seat back to the 1883, it has been held by a Republican continuously except for the 1933-35 term. During that period it ranged from the 11th, to the 9th, to the 8th, and finally to the 5th.

As for Tennessee
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_congressional_delegations_from_Tennessee
The current seventh (Blackburn) was actually the sixth prior to 1982.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Don_Sundquist

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The Eight was renumbered the seventh in 1972. The then sixth was reconfigured to oust a liberal Dem by the Conserva-dem legislature, and it elected a Republican. That seat, after being renumbered the seventh in 1982, has been solidly Republican ever since. Another Dem seat was eliminated in 72 appearently (what was then the seventh held by Roy Blanton). In 1982 the state regained a seat.. Beard's sixth became the seventh and Ed Jones was placed back into a district numbered the eighth.  That established we can go back to 1953 through Fats Everett to Jere Cooper. Cooper represented the ninth prior to 1953, and the eight once again prior to 1943, and the ninth yet again prior to 1933. Finis Garret and then Rice Pierce take the seat back to 1897.

I would say 1872, or basically Reconstruction when the 8th, and 9th were both held by Republicans.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tennessee%27s_8th_congressional_district

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[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

AL-05 is another one, the GOP hasn't held since reconstruction, but gained last December when Griffith switched parties.

AR-01 is "unreconstucted Dem" seat (alteast it was till 2010, ) It was also Blanche Lincoln's.
AR-02 was held by a Republican from 1979-1985 and again from 1989-1991.

Before Larkin Smith held MS-04 (it was the fifth then actually), it was held by Trent Lott for 16 years.

MO-04 was last held by Republican in 1953.
MN-08 was last held by a Republican in 1947.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Tracking Hal Rogers seat back to the 1883, it has been held by a Republican continuously except for the 1933-35 term. During that period it ranged from the 11th, to the 9th, to the 8th, and finally to the 5th.

The core of the district, maybe. But a large part of it was in the old KY-7, a longtime Democratic bastion. That sort of thing is the problem with attempting to work out this sort of thing. Especially when it emerges that town x has not been represented by party y since 1932 (or whenever)... except that it still voted against party y. How significant, then, is the fact of representation?

[nclib]

Does anyone know approximately when any of these districts were last represented by a Republican?

How does one define this when CD boundaries in other-than-at-large states change over time?  All parts of the district in prior decades?  Any part of the district in prior decades?  The CD with the same number, regardless of whether it moved within the state?

Pretty much what NC Yankee is doing, what district most of the general area has been. Though I admit there is some ambiguity when a district is split 60:40 or when the population is concentrated in one area of a district.

As for the remaining...
FL-2: Grant's party switch in 1989-1991, hadn't elected a Republican since at least 1960, probably over 100 years
IL-17: 1983
MI-1: 1993
PA-11: 1983
SC-5: prob. over 100 years
TX-17: prob. over 100 years
VA-9: 1983
WV-1: 1969
WI-7: 1969

CA-20 if goes GOP: 1991
TX-27 if goes GOP: at least 1983, prob. longer

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A large part of the current WV-1 was in the old WV-2; the Staggers district. Which went Republican in 1980, when the old man retired, though was gained by his son in 1982 when the new Rep rep decided that it was better to be crushed by Byrd than run for re-election (despite winning comfortably in 1980).

[nkpatel1279]

On a related note, John Boozman is the first Republican to hold that Senate seat since Reconstruction.

You forget about Tim Hutchinson- who was elected in 1996 when it was an open seat and Bill Clinton won re-election as President- Hutchinson lost re-election in 2002- to Mark Pryor the son of Hutchinson's predecessor David Pryor.

[memphis]

On a related note, John Boozman is the first Republican to hold that Senate seat since Reconstruction.

You forget about Tim Hutchinson- who was elected in 1996 when it was an open seat and Bill Clinton won re-election as President- Hutchinson lost re-election in 2002- to Mark Pryor the son of Hutchinson's predecessor David Pryor.

No, that's the other AR Senate seat. Also, we won DE-AL for the first time in almost twenty years

[nclib]

On a related note, are there any non-urban districts that have a Democratic streak of at least 30 years?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

On a related note, are there any non-urban districts that have a Democratic streak of at least 30 years?

It depends on what you define as an "urban" seat?

WV-03 probably is one.

[Landslide Lyndon]

On a related note, are there any non-urban districts that have a Democratic streak of at least 30 years?

It depends on what you define as an "urban" seat?

WV-03 probably is one.

Aren't there majority-black rural districts in the south?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

On a related note, are there any non-urban districts that have a Democratic streak of at least 30 years?

It depends on what you define as an "urban" seat?

WV-03 probably is one.

Aren't there majority-black rural districts in the south?

Well, thats where its important to know what the standard is. MAny of them include heavily black urban precints like AL-07 includes black precints in Birmingham and Montgomery. SC-06, I beleive, includes parts of Columbia, SC. MS-02 probably would work as would NC-01.

TN-09, LA-02 definately aren't rural. 

You would have to lay out a maximum percentage of residents that live in urban areas to be considered "rural" districts like 20% or less in urban areas or something like that. Then take that threshold and come up with a list that meet that standard.

[JoeyJoeJoe]

NC-7 has been Dem for decades, at least (McIntyre-Rose-Lennon).  GA-2 has not gone GOP since reconstruction, I think.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

ND-AL was held by Dems for 30 years prior to it flipping this time.

[Torie]

When was the territory encompassed by TN-4 (the Gore district), last held by a Pubbie until now?  The Dem collapse in Middle Tennessee outside inner city Nashville has been awesome, perhaps one of the biggest swings to the GOP in the nation in the last 15 years or so, which has been Dem since Andy Jackson annealed it, along with the Civil War.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

TN-4 was Republican from 1994 until 2002. Gore shifted to TN-6 in 1982 when rural middle TN was divided in redistricting. Old TN-4 had been Democratic since 1922, though before 1820 the last defeat was in 1868. But the boundary issue may raise its head again.

[nclib]

MS-2 (under similar boundaries) was actually held by a Republican for two terms in the 1980s.

Any longtime non-urban Democratic districts outside the South? Probably a few in Mass. have for at least 30 years.

[Brittain33]

MS-2 (under similar boundaries) was actually held by a Republican for two terms in the 1980s.

Any longtime non-urban Democratic districts outside the South? Probably a few in Mass. have for at least 30 years.

MA-1, MA-3, and MA-6 have had Republican representation at least once since the late 1980s. You might define MA-10 as non-urban, although it's heavily suburban, and has been Democratic since the 1972 elections. MA-5 is more urban and went Dem in 1974. MA-2 goes back to the 1940s but again, it's based in Springfield which was probably then a much larger part of the district.