PA 13

[classical liberal]

the dems will loose GA, but will hold their other southern seats.  the GOP will loose IL, but will hold its other midwestern seats.  its the western GOP seats that could tip the senate to the Dems.  If IL and GA switch hands as they almost assuredly will, the dems need to pick up a net of 2 seats.  OK and CO are open and vulnerable, as is AK.  If we had put in Toomey, he would have almost assuredly lost the seat.  That would have meant that all 3 of the truly vulnerable GOP seats would need to be defended to keep a majority rather than just 2.  If Coburn wins the OK primary then it moves to the safe column, but I really think that AK will switch.  Therefore the senate will be decided in CO, rather than CO and PA.  One less seat to defend is one seat's worth of money available for the other seats.

[classical liberal]

was he challenged by a Dem?

[classical liberal]

If the district was pro Gore by 12%, why did Brown come within 4% of an incumbent?

The GOP's numbers in 2002 were inflated from the runup to war by at least 5 points across the board with a higher inflation in more conservative areas.  The 4 point margin would have probably been around 10 without the inflation.

[classical liberal]

Do you know what Bush's numbers were back in 2002?  He had like +60 approval in PA during the midterms.  That's around +55 points higher than it is now. You can't say that his popularity didn't spill over into the House races.

[classical liberal]

You can't tell me though that Melissa Brown would have received only about 40% without Bush's approval ratings.

I'm saying that she'd have gotten 44% rather than 47% without Bush's approval ratings.