Erc
Junior Chimp
Posts: 5,823
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« Reply #1 on: October 16, 2016, 12:59:33 PM » |
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If we change nothing at all for the non-white groups from 2012 (optimistic for Trump to say the least; the +24 among Hispanics in this poll for Clinton is obviously a downward statistical fluctuation), and match the margins for college and non-college whites in this poll, you would need to increase non-college white turnout by 30% in order to match the topline numbers (and/or decrease college white turnout accordingly). There's no real evidence that that's happening.
On the flip side, if you increase Clinton's two-way support among Hispanics to 80% (in line with other polling) and don't futz with turnout in each demographic, this would correspond to a 10.5% win for Clinton (2012+NC+GA+AZ+NE-2), according to the 538 demographic calculator.
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