Dave's Redistricting App

[Brittain33]

Uh....I just made a majority black district in Iowa.........51-43 Black

Not for Congress, you didn't.

[Conservative frontier]

Uh....I just made a majority black district in Iowa.........51-43 Black

Not for Congress, you didn't.

I know, I made 40 districts.

[Conservative frontier]

I have successfully re-districted Arizona and Maryland, will post when I get back to NC, due to techincal issues.

[Verily]

Epic gerrymander of Arkansas to create a 49% black district (50% does not appear to be possible, sadly):

[Conservative frontier]

How do I find out how my re-distrciuted district voted Obama or McCain?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Here's an attempt at Iowa:



Not sure what algorithm they use exactly, but it's pretty nicely drawn I think and would fit the general criteria. Interestingly this map could easily elect an all Dem delegation.

[Joe Cooper]

Iowa: impressive.

[jimrtex]

Here's an attempt at Iowa:



Not sure what algorithm they use exactly, but it's pretty nicely drawn I think and would fit the general criteria. Interestingly this map could easily elect an all Dem delegation.

It might not qualify.  Iowa actually demands an extreme level of population equality.  A lot more than you would intuitively expect to be possible with whole counties.  In the 2000 redistricting the legislature rejected the first plan saying it had too great population equality, and it was way below 1000 deviation.

Iowa also uses a somewhat odd definition of compactness, comparing the east-west extent of the district with its north-south extent.   You can see this in the western district.   Visually, it looks to be basically a parallelogram that is somewhat narrower east-west than north-south.  But the east-west extent is measured from the westmost point in the NW corner to the eastmost point in the SE corner.  The district get some bonus width simply due to the fact that Council Bluffs is east of Sioux City.

It also means that Iowa tends to get districts that are somewhat L-shaped and toothy.  Think of a 4 x 4 block of counties that is almost square, and place a 3x3 block inside one corner of the district, so that you now have an L-shaped district along two edges of the 4 x 4.  Iowa thinks that the L-shaped district is as compact as the original square.   You can also move counties back and forth along the interior boundary, without any effect on the compactness.

If you look at a current map, you can see this effect, especially with 1, 2, and 4.   For 4 to follow about 2/3 of the Iowa-Minnesota border also requires it to drop south of Des Moines.

I suspect that a compact 4-district map would maintain the western district and then have districts in NE and SE corners that have some additional north-south extent by overlapping.  The 4th district will include Polk and an almost arbitrary set of counties.  If you add a county to the east, you have to also add one to the north or south.

[Smash255]

How do I find out how my re-distrciuted district voted Obama or McCain?

Only NY and Maryland have that data.

[Verily]

How do I find out how my re-distrciuted district voted Obama or McCain?

Only NY and Maryland have that data.

California and Texas do as well now.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Playing around with Michigan, I don't see any way to preserve two black majority districts. We'll probably be saying goodbye to Carolyn Kilpatrick. No tears here, the party needs less people like her and her repulsive son.

This is not good news for Republicans though, as from what I've seen all districts have to expand inward into Metro Detroit. This means Peters will likely end up safe, the black population of his district could easily double in share of the population. Schauer might as well, his district might very well end up taking in Ann Arbor. McCotter will also be more vulnerable, and Rogers could be in big trouble considering he represents a Republican district in a part of the world where there shouldn't be one. There's no reason Lansing should be represented by a Republican, the GOP shored him last time by adding a sliver of exurban Oakland county. That might be hard to maintain. Both likely would go down in an Obama vs. Palin election.

One upside for the Republicans is there probably isn't anyway to have the current Stupak seat avoid becoming more Republican. But that probably won't be a big deal if the Democrats get a good candidate in there, especially if the GOP bench continues to consist of only the type of loonies they currently are running.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

You should be able to make two majority-black districts. I managed it when I did this map last year:

Dem gerrymander of Michigan:



MI-01 (dark blue, Bart Stupak - D) - I didn't change Stupak's district much. At best it's added a couple of Dem-leaning counties.
MI-02 (pink, Vern Ehlers - R) - Combination of Hoekstra's district and the Grand Rapids portion of Ehlers'. Should be a fairly Democratic district.
MI-03 (brown, open) - A safe Republican district encompassing the suburbs of Grand Rapids and the Republican counties north of there. Ehlers would probably move here.
MI-04 (red, Dave Camp - R) - Added Saginaw to Camp's district, making his re-election much harder.
MI-05 (dark green, Dale Kildee - D) - He lost Saginaw but retains heavily-Democratic Flint. Also picks up some Democratic portions of Candace Miller's district. Should still be safe.
MI-06 (light purple, Fred Upton - R) - Expands east to take in the Republican territory from Schauer's district. Safe Republican.
MI-07 (light green, Mark Schauer - D) - Basically a Battle Creek/Lansing district, so it'll be much safer for Schauer.
MI-08 (teal, Mike Rogers - R and Thad McCotter - R) - I put Rogers and McCotter in a new, Ann Arbor-based district. Either one would lose the general. Rogers might move and challenge Kildee in his district, but that would still be an uphill climb for him.
MI-09 (grey, Gary Peters - D) - Not much changed here, although he did lose a few Republican bits at the top of his district.
MI-10 (purple, Candace Miller - R) - Safe Republican district, didn't change much.
MI-11 (light blue, John Dingell - D) - Dingell's district expanded southwest to include the slightly-Republican county of Lenawee. It should still be balanced out by the Wayne portions of the district.
MI-12 (yellow, Sander Levin - D) - Not much changed here.
MI-13 (magenta, Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick - D) - Expanded a bit, but still majority-black (51%).
MI-14 (light purple, John Conyers - D) - Same here, 53% black.

[Verily]

Yeah, I don't know what you're talking about, BRTD. Two majority black districts is very easy. When I drew my gerrymander of Michigan (which was much more intricate than Johnny's and created only one district less Obama than the nation), I intentionally connected the black areas to exurban lily-white areas to outvote the Republicans, and I still had tons of excess black population (something 58% black in one district, 51% in the other).

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Well I wasn't trying for a gerrymander, just to undo the current gerrymander and draw a "fair" map. My map avoided thin coast-hugging districts like that pink one, so that's probably why. Michigan won't have a Dem gerrymander anyway and will probably go incumbent protection, but it'll be interesting to see who ends up lost.

BTW I understand things were much different in 2002, but I was able to easily draw a sane Maryland map with 6/8 Obama districts. Maryland might have a less ugly map. Then again maybe not in the need to preserve individual incumbents.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

2 majority black districts and 6 strong Obama ones.

[Conservative frontier]

I gerrymandered Maryland to a 5-4 GOP advantage, and a 6-3 GOP in a good year.

[Smid]

I gerrymandered Maryland to a 5-4 GOP advantage, and a 6-3 GOP in a good year.

How many in a good year for the Dems? I figure that while a partisan gerrymander may give you a majority in a normal year and possibly even better results in a good year, it probably also increases your losses in a bad year which can make it harder to rebuild following an electoral defeat.

Oh, I really like your maps, BRTD - they don't look gerrymandered at all to me.

[Bo]

2 majority black districts and 6 strong Obama ones.

What are the %s for each district?

[Linus Van Pelt]

2 majority black districts and 6 strong Obama ones.

Good heavens. If one can divide the Baltimore area into three D districts like this, why does the current map have to look like it was designed by Benoit Mandelbrot on an acid trip?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

2 majority black districts and 6 strong Obama ones.

Good heavens. If one can divide the Baltimore area into three D districts like this, why does the current map have to look like it was designed by Benoit Mandelbrot on an acid trip?

Maryland had a 4-4 delegation before 2002. Bob Ehlrich represented a seat based around the Republican parts of Baltimore county, and liberal Republican Connie Morella represented a Montgomery-County based district. The Democrats decided to eliminate them both, so hence the current map in which Ehlrich's district was torn to shreds and Morella's was slightly altered to go into Prince George's county, and had the relatively Republican areas severed and attached to the 4th district.

Things are different today though, with Maryland's current population distribution it doesn't seem to be possible to draw a Republican seat similar to the one Ehlrich represented (I've tried with my GOP gerrymander experiment) because the 6th and 1st need to expand more into Baltimore County, while Chris Van Hollen is very safe in his new seat and doesn't need the crazy gerrymander (the old district was absolutely lost once Morella left anyway, it was 60% for Gore.) plus MontCo has moved left since then. One reason though why the map may not look this reasonable is the incumbents may end getting put together in such a map. You also have to wonder if they'll try to add more Democratic-leaning areas to the 1st to either shore up Kratovil or allow him to make a comeback in the most likely scenario that he loses.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Yeah Ruppersberger and Sarbanes (who only live 5 miles apart) would both end up in the green district. Edwards would also end up in the light purple seat represented by Hoyer as she lives in southern Prince George's county. Edwards would have no trouble just moving further up north though. I guess Sarbanes would be most likely to move to Howard County, though he doesn't represent much of the district it is so Democratic it probably doesn't matter.

2 majority black districts and 6 strong Obama ones.

What are the %s for each district?

Blue: McCain 57% Obama 42%
Green: Obama 57% McCain 41%
Purple: Obama 84% McCain 15%
Red: Obama 62% McCain 36%
Yellow: Obama 72% McCain 27%
Dark Teal: McCain 58% Obama 40%
Gray: Obama 90% McCain 9%
Light Purple: Obama 57% McCain 42%

[Kevinstat]

I gerrymandered Maryland to a 5-4 GOP advantage, and a 6-3 GOP in a good year.

Maryland has only 8 U.S. House seats now, and I haven't heard that it might gain a seat.  Is it within the realm of the reasonably possible?

[jimrtex]

I gerrymandered Maryland to a 5-4 GOP advantage, and a 6-3 GOP in a good year.

Maryland has only 8 U.S. House seats now, and I haven't heard that it might gain a seat.  Is it within the realm of the reasonably possible?

Only if DC is retroceded.   So reasonable yes.  Possible no.

[Free Palestine]

The 41 districts of New York City.  Now, the numbers may be different for actual congressional elections, but I'll be basing it off the presidential vote.  Not only do the Republicans have some districts (most notably NY-1, on Staten Island), but there is an awful lot more minority representation.  Minority-majority, as well as minority-plurality, districts.  I'll upload a picture later.

NY-1
Republican - 64%
Democratic - 35%
Other - 1%

Majority - White

NY-2
Republican - 41%
Democratic - 59%
Other - 1%

Majority - White

NY-3
Republican - 44%
Democratic - 55%
Other - 1%

Majority - White

NY-4 !
Republican - 49%
Democratic - 50%
Other - 1%

Majority - White

NY-5 !
Republican - 50%
Democratic - 49%
Other - 1%

Majority - White

NY-6
Republican - 39%
Democratic - 61%
Other - 0%

Majority - White

NY-7
Republican - 52%
Democratic - 47%
Other - 1%

Majority - White

NY-8
Republican - 20%
Democratic - 79%
Other - 1%

Plurality - Hispanic

NY-9
Republican - 6%
Democratic - 94%
Other - 1%

Plurality - White

NY-10
Republican - 5%
Democratic - 95%
Other - 0%

Majority - Black

NY-11
Republican - 2%
Democratic - 97%
Other - 0%

Majority - Black

NY-12
Republican - 16%
Democratic - 83%
Other - 1%

Plurality - White

NY-13
Republican - 2%
Democratic - 98%
Other - 0%

Majority - Black

NY-14
Republican - 4%
Democratic - 95%
Other - 0%

Majority - Black

NY-15
Republican - 14%
Democratic - 86%
Other - 0%

Majority - Hispanic

NY-16
Republican - 30%
Democratic - 70%
Other - 0%

Plurality - White

NY-17
Republican - 23%
Democratic - 76%
Other - 0%

Plurality - Hispanic

NY-18
Republican - 40%
Democratic - 59%
Other - 1%

Majority - White

NY-19
Republican - 19%
Democratic - 80%
Other - 1%

Plurality - White

NY-20
Republican - 20%
Democratic - 79%
Other - 1%

Plurality - Hispanic

NY-21
Republican - 21%
Democratic - 79%
Other - 1%

Majority - Hispanic

NY-22
Republican - 31%
Democratic - 69%
Other - 1%

Plurality - Asian

NY-23
Republican - 41%
Democratic - 58%
Other - 1%

Majority - White

NY-24
Republican - 13%
Democratic - 86%
Other - 0%

Plurality - Black

NY-25
Republican - 22%
Democratic - 78%
Other - 1%

Plurality - Black

NY-26
Republican - 6%
Democratic - 94%
Other - 0%

Majority - Black

NY-28
Republican - 16%
Democratic - 83%
Other - 1%

Plurality - White

NY-40
Republican - 13%
Democratic - 86%
Other - 1%

Majority - White

NY-41
Republican - 17%
Democratic - 82%
Other - 1%

Majority - White

NY-42
Republican - 24%
Democratic - 75%
Other - 1%

Majority - White

NY-43
Republican - 10%
Democratic - 89%
Other - 1%

Majority - White

NY-44
Republican - 11
Democratic - 89
Other - 1

Plurality - Hispanic

NY-45
R - 3
D - 97
O - 0

Plurality - Black

NY-46
R - 8
D - 92
O - 0

Majority - Hispanic

NY-47
R - 5
D - 95
O - 0

Majority - Hispanic

NY-48
R - 9
D - 91
O - 0

Majority - Hispanic

NY-49
R - 22
D - 78
O - 0

Plurality - White

NY-50
R - 4
D - 95
O - 0

Majority - Hispanic

NY-51
R - 9
D - 91
O - 0

Plurality - Hispanic

NY-52
R - 7
D - 92
O - 1

Majority - Hispanic

NY-53
R - 23
D - 77
O - 1

Plurality - White

[Conservative frontier]

I gerrymandered Maryland to a 5-4 GOP advantage, and a 6-3 GOP in a good year.

Maryland has only 8 U.S. House seats now, and I haven't heard that it might gain a seat.  Is it within the realm of the reasonably possible?

My bad, ok Fixed it, Now it's 5-3 Republican, I added in Annapolis with a southern district near prince george.