MN Sen Recount (UPDATE: Stuart Smalley certified winner, lawsuit forthcoming)

[MarkWarner08]

Franken's up by 570 votes?
http://ww2.startribune.com/news/metro/elections/returns/2008/recount/msenci.html

[MarkWarner08]

Apparently, Norm Coleman lost 1000 (!) votes in Watertown.

[MarkWarner08]

Today's recount results:

Nov. 4 Ballots Cast for Norm Coleman   195708
Nov. 4 Ballots Cast for Al Franken   180950
 
Recounted Data   Totals   Percent
RECOUNT Number of Ballots for Coleman (as recounted)   195638   43.25
RECOUNT Number of Ballots for Franken (as recounted)   180923   39.99
RECOUNT Number of All Other Ballots (as recounted)   75585   16.71
RECOUNT COLEMAN and Other Ballots Challenged By FRANKEN   106   0.02
RECOUNT FRANKEN and Other Ballots Challenged By COLEMAN   115   0.03

Percentage of Ballots Recounted = 15.49 %

Recount (so far)
Coleman: - 70
Franken: - 27

Net Result: Coleman - 43 votes

http://electionresults.sos.state.mn.us/20081104/SenateRecount.asp

[MarkWarner08]

Just FYI, for those keeping score:  The MN SOS website says Coleman -47 votes, with 23.17% of precincts and 15.49% of votes.  The Star-Tribune says Coleman -34 votes, with 25% of precincts and 17% of votes.  And my counting of the Strib says Coleman -41 votes.  Still haven't counted the SOS yet...

Waiting for these numbers to coalesce around one result...

Isn't Coleman -43 on the MN SOS site? He lost 70 votes, while Franken lost 27 votes.

[MarkWarner08]

Coleman's campaign is challenging this vote, which was counted for Franken. For the first time in memory, I've found common ground with Norm Coleman. How was this vote possibly cast for Franken?

[MarkWarner08]

Coleman's campaign is challenging this vote, which was counted for Franken. For the first time in memory, I've found common ground with Norm Coleman. How was this vote possibly cast for Franken?
[/quote

If you analyze, by weight, the number of pixels which are above the line versus the amount below the line you will see that there are more above than below.

Sure, but the line is clearly through the Libertarian's oval. I think that signifies a vote for the Libertarian.

[MarkWarner08]

I can foresee two hilarious (and heartbreaking, depending on which side you're on) scenarios unfolding. First, Franken takes a narrow lead after all the D strongholds come in, but he loses his lead after the rural areas are counted. Second, Coleman survives the recount, but loses after some previously rejected absentee ballots are counted.

[MarkWarner08]

theuptake.org says Franken just lost 17 votes in Minneapolis.

[MarkWarner08]

Recount so far:
Coleman: -212
Franken: -126

New Coleman lead: 129 votes

Do any Rossi fans remember the significance of that number?
http://electionresults.sos.state.mn.us/20081104/SenateRecount.asp

[MarkWarner08]

SOS has it updated.

Coleman lead at 129 (-86).  360 challenged by Coleman, 375 challenged by Franken. 51%P counted, 42%V counted.  Still skews Coleman by about 3%.

I'll work through the numbers and update the table in a second.

Looks like Franken's observers got the memo about challenging Coleman ballots.

[MarkWarner08]

MN SOS to Star Tribune: Guess who's wrong?

Nov. 4 Ballots Cast for Norm Coleman   752438
RECOUNT Number of Ballots for Coleman (as recounted)   751898   42.34

Coleman=  -540 votes

Nov. 4 Ballots Cast for Al Franken   723818
RECOUNT Number of Ballots for Franken (as recounted)   723378   40.74
Franken = -440 votes


RECOUNT COLEMAN and Other Ballots Challenged By FRANKEN   778   0.04
RECOUNT FRANKEN and Other Ballots Challenged By COLEMAN   747   0.04
http://electionresults.sos.state.mn.us/20081104/SenateRecount.asp

Net result: Coleman +115 votes


Percentage of Ballots Recounted = 60.86 %


Coleman lead down to 115 votes....

[MarkWarner08]

Anyone know what's happening with those contested absentee ballots?

[MarkWarner08]

If Franken loses here, he's likely done for:

"MN-Recount State Canvassing Board meeting on rejected absentee ballots- Wednesday, Nov 26"

[MarkWarner08]

(Is gushy and shrill)

COLEMAN IS UP TO A 210 VOTE LEAD WITH 83% OF PRECINCTS REPORTING. YAY!

HE HAS ALSO CHALLENGED 124 MORE BALLOTS THAN HAS FRANKEN. YAY!

[MarkWarner08]

Star Tribune has 1624 Coleman Challenges to 1501 Franken ones

I only see 1,535 Coleman to 1,501 Franken.

Looks like they made a 90 vote error. When I last checked the Star Trib had the Coleman challenges at 1625. I  now feel less sanguine about Franken's chances.

[MarkWarner08]

Can we all agree that many Coleman challengers are complete fucking morons?

Only if we can all agree that Franken challengers are complete fucking morons.

Coleman's people are not morons, in any case.  They're engaged in a petty case of tit-for-tat frivolous challenges with Team Franken.  Part of it is petty revenge, part of it is PR: Coleman doesn't want Franken to dramatically outpace them on challenges, or the running tally (which doesn't include challenged ballots) will start showing a Franken lead.

But none of Franken's people are ridiculous as the Coleman people in Fillmore county who basically believe that all votes for McCain must also be for Coleman. As someone else pointed out if you're going to use that logic then you better just declare Franken the winner as Obama won Minnesota.

Actually, yes, plenty of Franken's people are as ridiculous.  I heard the argument that a vote for Obama must be a vote for Franken too over a week ago.

Get this thing over.  Both sides are beyond ridiculous.

Oh, for all intents and purposes, this thing is over.  Even Franken's people admit that Franken is behind by nearly 100, and with those disqualified ballots staying disqualified, he's pretty much toast.

If those 12,000 ballots are counted, Franken may prevail. Otherwise, he likely loses. Now that the former head of the WA Democratic Party is advising Franken, I'm sure they'll find a way to inject those rejected ballots into the overall total.

[MarkWarner08]

...I will join the Republican party and become active if Franken wins...

Well, SS, I've always thought of you as a Republican.

And I've always thought of you, well...

as a worker. 

It's personal, not business, in this case.

Sam,

Why you choose a political party based on one candidate? Isn't Al Franken on the left balanced out by Jim Inhofe on the right? Is there any reason to case aside your individuality as an independent to join a marginalized political party out of spite?

[MarkWarner08]

...I will join the Republican party and become active if Franken wins...

Well, SS, I've always thought of you as a Republican.

And I've always thought of you, well...

as a worker. 

It's personal, not business, in this case.

Sam,

Why you choose a political party based on one candidate? Isn't Al Franken on the left balanced out by Jim Inhofe on the right? Is there any reason to case aside your individuality as an independent to join a marginalized political party out of spite?

It's a personal issue.  Has little to do with politics.  Has everything to do with Al Franken.  Honestly, I didn't care before I found this out and won't care (well, I care in a different way) if he's not a member of the Senate as a Democrat.

Why do I have to parse nearly all of your comments? Does "this" refer to some horrific indiscretion Al Franken has committed?  This is a guy who wrote "Porn-o-rama" -- I could imagine him doing something rather scuzzy...