CA-USC/LA Times: Clinton +30

[NOVA Green]

I could easily see Trump losing Cali 65-35, and possibly even worse.

This guy is just about the worst fit I could imagine for a Republican GE candidate in the state. Sure he might gain a few extra points in some small rural counties in the northern part of the state, and maybe even grab one or two Sanders voters here or there, but he's not going to do well with Fiorina and Whitman Republicans in most parts of the state, combined with what looks well like will be huge Latino voter turnout numbers in November, including a ton of first-time voters that registered to vote since January, heavily motivated by the disturbing and racially charged comments against Latino Americans.

Key question will many of these new voters go down-ballot and put CDs in places like the (3) CDs in Central Valley and several others in North Coast San Diego/SoCal into play and pad the already overwhelmingly Dem congressional delegation margins.

[NOVA Green]

I could easily see Trump losing Cali 65-35, and possibly even worse.

This guy is just about the worst fit I could imagine for a Republican GE candidate in the state. Sure he might gain a few extra points in some small rural counties in the northern part of the state, and maybe even grab one or two Sanders voters here or there, but he's not going to do well with Fiorina and Whitman Republicans in most parts of the state, combined with what looks well like will be huge Latino voter turnout numbers in November, including a ton of first-time voters that registered to vote since January, heavily motivated by the disturbing and racially charged comments against Latino Americans.

Key question will many of these new voters go down-ballot and put CDs in places like the (3) CDs in Central Valley and several others in North Coast San Diego/SoCal into play and pad the already overwhelmingly Dem congressional delegation margins.

It'll be very interesting to see if he puts his money where his mouth is and contests the state. A man can dream...

Hopefully out of his own pocket, and not some fixed-income senior citizen living on Social Security barely able to pay his own rent...

But seriously, even many OC Republicans are having a hard time considering voting for him, let alone what passes for Republican leaning swing-voters in the Bay Area in places like Santa Clara County and Walnut Creek/Concord.

What is remaining of the Republican Party in Cali that can take statewide elections to ~10 point margins is generally socially-liberal, economically moderate, and doesn't do the old dog-whistles a la Pete Wilson, who did more to destroy the Republican Party in California than any other political figures.

The message of exclusivity and nativism is inherently in fundamental contradiction to how the vast majority of citizens perceive themselves as part of the California of the 21st Century in the post Pete Wilson era, among Democrats, True Independents", and many Republicans as well.

[NOVA Green]

Man, I can't even imagine what a Republican from Walnut Creek or Concord really looks like. Probably easy to pick out of a crowd.... or not because there's so few of them.

Definitely a dying breed and general live out in wealthy mansions in the hills or a handful of senior citizen center, or are in deep undercover mode at their neighborhood BBQs in the middle class suburbs.

What some on this forum used to refer to as "Reagan Democrats" and key to the Bush Senior win in'88 and core to Pete Wilson scene.

Not sure if you ever spent time down in Cupertino, where I lived for awhile, but I think there might be a few more Republicans in Concord and Walnut creek than much of South Bay, although it's difficult to poll with such a small subsample. Bet on for November when precincts report?

Either way a landslide in the Bay Area Region (BAR), and OC and SD counties aren't going to be much help propping up the margins this time around, when there is huge turnout in LA and Inland Empire combined with Central Valley and Sac.

I think 65-35 is a pretty realistic number... maybe even worse depending upon how the Trump trainwreck continues to roll.

[NOVA Green]

RV poll as opposed to LV.

You know that the election is still 5 months away, right?

Five months from now, there will still be a 30 point Clinton-Trump lead in Cali, and yes it is an RV vs LV poll, but there will be another 500-750k+ newly registered voters that will overwhelmingly vote against the latest reincarnation of Pete Wilson, but much more of a hater.

LBJ---- totally agree with you on this and RV/LV is not the best argument to make on the final margins. I could see a scenario where it is a 62-38 or 63-27 margin, but that would presuppose that a  huge chunk of Bernie voters sit out the election or go indie, but honestly much less likely in Cali than other parts of the country.