Morning Consult nat.:D: Clinton 53% Sanders 26%; R: Trump 35% Carson 20% Bush 8%

[Mr. Morden]

Morning Consult national poll, conducted Oct. 22-25:

http://morningconsult.com/2015/10/poll-carson-rises-to-challenge-trump/
http://morningconsult.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/151006_crosstabs_trend_v2_AP.pdf

Dems

Clinton 53%
Sanders 26%
O’Malley 5%

GOP

Trump 35%
Carson 20%
Bush 8%
Rubio 6%
Huckabee 4%
Christie 3%
Cruz 3%
Fiorina 3%
Paul 3%
Jindal 2%
Kasich 2%
Pataki 1%
Santorum 1%
Graham 0%

[The Other Castro]

O'Mentum!

[Mr. Morden]

Fun crosstabs…Rubio narrowly edges out Trump among Hispanics (though margin of error is enormous because it’s such a small group in GOP):

Rubio 26%
Trump 25%
Bush 10%
Carson 9%

Also, big divergence between Catholic and Protestant Republicans…

Catholics

Trump 35%
Bush 14%
Rubio 14%
Carson 12%

Protestants

Carson 34%
Trump 26%
Bush 6%
Cruz 6%

And then there’s non-Christians…

Trump 43%
Carson 12%
Paul 5%
Jindal 5%

Also of note for delegate selection purposes…rural vs. suburban vs. urban:

Rural

Trump 37%
Carson 27%
Bush 7%

Suburban

Trump 37%
Carson 18%
Bush 9%

Urban

Trump 24%
Rubio 14%
Carson 13%

And then by region:

Midwest

Trump 31%
Carson 26%
Bush 10%
Rubio 5%

Northeast

Trump 37%
Bush 16%
Carson 14%
Christie 6%

South

Trump 39%
Carson 23%
Rubio 6%
Bush 4%

West

Trump 29%
Carson 11%
Rubio 10%
Bush 7%
Cruz 7%
Huckabee 7%

[Mr. Morden]

If the "urban" crosstab is to be believed, then both Carson and Trump have the potential to be screwed over by the RNC's delegate allocation, since so many states give every congressional district the same # of delegates, and there are fewer Republicans in cities than in the sticks.

Granted, Trump's current lead is big enough that he'd still win a plurality of delegates if every state voted today, but if his lead slips, this could be an issue.

[muon2]

If the "urban" crosstab is to be believed, then both Carson and Trump have the potential to be screwed over by the RNC's delegate allocation, since so many states give every congressional district the same # of delegates, and there are fewer Republicans in cities than in the sticks.

Granted, Trump's current lead is big enough that he'd still win a plurality of delegates if every state voted today, but if his lead slips, this could be an issue.

Delegate election will be critical if the large field holds up through the primaries. In IL every CD elects three delegates. The top three delegates in each CD will win, and in some cases that win will go to a well known figure in the CD regardless of the person that delegate supports for president. I'm guessing most other primary states are similar.

[Mr. Morden]

If the "urban" crosstab is to be believed, then both Carson and Trump have the potential to be screwed over by the RNC's delegate allocation, since so many states give every congressional district the same # of delegates, and there are fewer Republicans in cities than in the sticks.

Granted, Trump's current lead is big enough that he'd still win a plurality of delegates if every state voted today, but if his lead slips, this could be an issue.

Delegate election will be critical if the large field holds up through the primaries. In IL every CD elects three delegates. The top three delegates in each CD will win, and in some cases that win will go to a well known figure in the CD regardless of the person that delegate supports for president. I'm guessing most other primary states are similar.

Illinois’s delegate selection method is actually not very common at all.  It’s one of the few states in which the delegates are directly elected, and their names appear on the ballot.  Pennsylvania’s primary operates similarly, but the vast majority of other states determine delegate allocation based on the votes cast for the presidential candidate himself/herself, with the name of the delegates not appearing on the ballot.

[Eraserhead]

I guess the Biden no-show and the other also-rans dropping out did help out O'Malley a little. 5% has be an all-time high for him as far as national polls go.

[Likely Voter]

The disparity between the online GOP polls (like Morning Consult) and the live phone polls is getting ridiculous. Trump does much better with the online polls, Carson, Cruz, Rubio and Fiorina do better in the live phone polls.

Online Polls...


Live Phone Polls