March 13 Results

[J. J.]

pingrich is very close to santorum in MS. Could he win at the end?

Yes, so could Mittens at this point, barely.

It would be helpful to Romney if he had a meaningful lead in any place that wasn't overreported.

Barely, some of the urban areas are still out.

AL, is at 44 reporting, and Santorum is still holding.

[J. J.]

pingrich is very close to santorum in MS. Could he win at the end?

Yes, so could Mittens at this point, barely.

It would be helpful to Romney if he had a meaningful lead in any place that wasn't overreported.

Barely, some of the urban areas are still out.

AL, is at 44 reporting, and Santorum is still holding.

J.J. take a lap, hit the showers and proceed straight to bed.   

Why, that's good news for Santorum supporters?  Santorum is holding, and Fox just called it for him.

[J. J.]

uh J.J., what urban areas in Mississippi are "still out"?  A few are underreported (the Jackson metro has gone from overreported to about parity) but I can't imagine that's enough for Romney to be anything but screwed.

Lauterdale, Lowndes, Washington.   Yazoo (not urban), where Santorum is running third, is about 30% in.  Jackson is 90% in.  It is an outside chance, but it is a tight race.

[J. J.]

uh J.J., what urban areas in Mississippi are "still out"?  A few are underreported (the Jackson metro has gone from overreported to about parity) but I can't imagine that's enough for Romney to be anything but screwed.

Lauterdale, Lowndes, Washington.   Yazoo (not urban), where Santorum is running third, is about 30% in.  Jackson is 90% in.  It is an outside chance, but it is a tight race.

Yazoo is tiny and mostly black

And voting for Romney, with Santorum in 3rd.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

It hadn't when I posted.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

At 90%, you can take out Romney, but Gingrich still has a fair shot of winning.

[J. J.]

Santorum opened up his lead in MS; he has it.  Gingrich is dropping back a bit.

[J. J.]

Romney should come out third in MS, though by less than 4000 votes.

[J. J.]

The bigger upset tonight is not Santorum beating Romney but Santorum beating Gingrich.

I had Gingrich winning both, so yes.  Santorum is the ABR candidate.

At this point, Gingrich should drop out.

[J. J.]

Not done yes AS and HI are still out.

Any idea on the delegate count?

[J. J.]

Romney could take 2nd in either state still...in theory.

Very outside chance at this point.  In AL, all candidates have been holding their positions since about 10% of the returns were in.

At 96%, in MS, I don't think there is a 3,500 plurality out there.

[J. J.]

ok...newton dont let down.


Clearly now, we can say that he works for romney

I don't know, the longer this campaign goes on the more his contempt seems to come out full flare against Romney.

He definitely wasn't on the payroll in SC.

The Whack-a-Mole has been whacked.  

[J. J.]

It doesn't help Romney tonight that his good events (HI and Samoa) will happen while most of the country is asleep.

If it is reported like KS, they'll wake up to the headline:

Santorum Wins AL and MS; Romney Gains Delegates

It might even be:

Gingrich Loses AL & MS; Romney Gains Delegates

[J. J.]

It doesn't help Romney tonight that his good events (HI and Samoa) will happen while most of the country is asleep.

If it is reported like KS, they'll wake up to the headline:

Santorum Wins AL and MS; Romney Gains Delegates

It might even be:

Gingrich Loses AL & MS; Romney Gains Delegates

Yeah, good luck on that man.

I think the best news for Romney tonight (besides the existence of the two other contests) is that some voters realize that this performance isn't especially impressive for Santorum, a la Romney's narrow Michigan win.

Gingrich Loses AL & MS; Romney Gains Delegates

You are truly something else, J.J.

It happened last Saturday.  

Seriously, I don't write the news stories, but I have to admit it, the media is in the tank for Romney.

BTW:  Congratulations Phil.  

[J. J.]

Gingrich Loses AL & MS; Romney Gains Delegates

You are truly something else, J.J.

And the amusing part is that (I think) he actually believes it.

Well, I beat Charles Krauthammer to it on Fox. 

[J. J.]

Anything on the delegates:

AP has:

MI:  S 12, R 11, G 11

AL:  S 15, G 9, R 7

Anybody with a better estimate?

[J. J.]

It was an interesting night. My thoughts about the primaries are up on the blog (http://www.yourelection.net/2012/03/santorum-takes-mississippi-and-alabama-from-gingrich/).

Time to sign off.

Interesting headline.  

[J. J.]

The lead from Reuters:

Republican Rick Santorum won a pair of crucial Deep South primaries on Tuesday, staking a claim to leadership of the party's conservative wing and dealing a severe setback to presidential rival Newt Gingrich.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/14/us-usa-campaign-idUSTRE8230GE20120314

I don't write for Reuters either.

[J. J.]

The lead from Reuters:

Republican Rick Santorum won a pair of crucial Deep South primaries on Tuesday, staking a claim to leadership of the party's conservative wing and dealing a severe setback to presidential rival Newt Gingrich.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/14/us-usa-campaign-idUSTRE8230GE20120314

I don't write for Reuters either.

How do you plan on covering tonight's results for The Mensa Times?

No, they write about me.

This will be spun as a Gingrich loss more so than a Romney loss, if Romney gets a plurality of the delegates for the day.

[J. J.]

I can't speak for Mississippi but the upper middle class is in fact unusually evangelical in Alabama, at least in the area around Birmingham with which I'm familiar. They actually by some subjective measures of what I've encountered there seem somewhat more politically evangelical than poorer whites.

From what little I know of it, that seems to be the case.

[J. J.]

The lead from Reuters:

Republican Rick Santorum won a pair of crucial Deep South primaries on Tuesday, staking a claim to leadership of the party's conservative wing and dealing a severe setback to presidential rival Newt Gingrich.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/14/us-usa-campaign-idUSTRE8230GE20120314

I don't write for Reuters either.

So nothing at all like what you predicted. Cool.

Right Lief, I was at least waiting to see what happened in HI and AS.

If it is reported like KS, they'll wake up to the headline:

Santorum Wins AL and MS; Romney Gains Delegates

It might even be:

Gingrich Loses AL & MS; Romney Gains Delegates

Oh, and they used a different typeface too.

[J. J.]

Well, I'm back after a while away from the computer.

1. Romney has some egg on his face tonight; outspending his opponents by a wide margin, leading in the polls, but still coming in third in both states.
2. Santorum Surge Mark III, commence!

Gingrich has more egg than Romney.  Santorum had the best night by far... not many people saw him winning both of these.

A lot more.  A very bad night for Gingrich, a not unexpectedly bad night for Romney (so far), and a very good night for Santorum.

[J. J.]

Well, I'm back after a while away from the computer.

1. Romney has some egg on his face tonight; outspending his opponents by a wide margin, leading in the polls, but still coming in third in both states.
2. Santorum Surge Mark III, commence!

Gingrich has more egg than Romney.  Santorum had the best night by far... not many people saw him winning both of these.

A lot more.  A very bad night for Gingrich, a not unexpectedly bad night for Romney (so far), and a very good night for Santorum.

Well, we all know that Romney will do well in Hawaii and American Samoa. I wonder he'll get all of the votes of the 50 people who bother to show up in Samoa? Of course he'll get all of the delegates there.

AS probably, but HI is proportional, which could cut into his totals.  That will shape the story.

The press could end up focusing on the delegates.  A Romney plurality changes the story.

[J. J.]

Santorum is the ABR candidate.

Romney, surprisingly, gets a plurality of 6 delegates over Santorum

Now, will there be a projection for MO?  That could be a win for Santorum.

PR seems solid for Romney, but there is a chance of a Santorum victory.

Then there is IL. 

To break through, Santorum has to win one, in terms of delegates.