OH-1, 2, 15, 16/SUSA: More good news for Democrats

[JohnnyLongtorso]

http://swingstateproject.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=3133

OH-1:

Steve Chabot (R) - 46
Steve Driehaus (D) - 44

OH-2:

Jean Schmidt (R) - 48
Vic Wulsin (D) - 40

OH-15:

Mary Jo Kilroy (D) - 47
Steve Stivers (R) - 42
Don Eckhart (I) - 5
Mark Noble (L) - 3

This is up from a 47-44-7 lead for Kilroy in August. Noble wasn't included previously.

OH-16:

John Boccieri (D) - 49
Kirk Schuring (R) - 41

[TheresNoMoney]

OH-15 and OH-16 are the two we need to get.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

OH-15 and OH-16 are the two we need to get.

Considering that Democrats already have the House of Representatives, you don't really "need" to get any of these.  2008 is kinda like your "bonus round."

[TheresNoMoney]

Considering that Democrats already have the House of Representatives, you don't really "need" to get any of these.  2008 is kinda like your "bonus round."

True, but these are open seats and golden pickup opportunities.  Those don't come along all the time.

[Verily]

Considering that Democrats already have the House of Representatives, you don't really "need" to get any of these.  2008 is kinda like your "bonus round."

True, but these are open seats and golden pickup opportunities.  Those don't come along all the time.

Definitely the proper viewpoint. OH-15 and OH-16 are important opportunities for the Democrats to install incumbents in open seats where they will be very difficult to dislodge in the future. OH-01, while it would be useful for the Democrats if they won it, will be much more winnable for them if Steve Chabot ever retires or runs for higher office. OH-02, on the other hand, is probably not worth the Democrats' energy because even a Democratic incumbent would have a lot of trouble holding on to it.

The Democrats' current majority contains a number of seats that are vulnerable even with incumbents (TX-22, FL-16, GA-12), and a number of other seats which will be vulnerable when the incumbent retires (TX-07, UT-02). The more seats they can grab that will be safe with incumbents, the better position they are in to hold on to the House in 2010, 2012, etc.

[Nutmeg]

The Democrats' current majority contains a number of seats that are vulnerable even with incumbents (TX-22, FL-16, GA-12), and a number of other seats which will be vulnerable when the incumbent retires (TX-07, UT-02). The more seats they can grab that will be safe with incumbents, the better position they are in to hold on to the House in 2010, 2012, etc.

GA-12 in its current incarnation is only marginally Republican-leaning, and there are lots of conservative Dems there who could fill in for Barrow, particularly given the relatively weak Republican bench there.  It's GA-08 that's the real problem - without Marshall, this district is absolutely lost.

[minionofmidas]

Cards get reshuffled in 2012. Not saying this will necessarily favor Democrats, of course - population shifts presumably won't - but a lot depends on 2008 and 2010 state legislative races, and I for one would invest there.

[Adlai Stevenson]

OH-15 and OH-16 are the two we need to get.

We'd like to OH-1 and OH-2, but 3/4 would do me.  I doubt Schmidt will be disloged, but Chabot perhaps might be...

[Mr.Phips]

OH-15 and OH-16 are the two we need to get.

We'd like to OH-1 and OH-2, but 3/4 would do me.  I doubt Schmidt will be disloged, but Chabot perhaps might be...

With OH-02, if Democrats won it, they would probably only it for one term.  If they won OH-01 that would be a district that they would be able to hold for a long time. 

[Verily]

Cards get reshuffled in 2012. Not saying this will necessarily favor Democrats, of course - population shifts presumably won't - but a lot depends on 2008 and 2010 state legislative races, and I for one would invest there.

The Democrats couldn't hold OH-02 in 2010 even during a McCain presidency, and I don't see any way to redistrict it for 2012 that would make it remotely winnable for the Democrats anyway, since they'd have some other districts in Ohio to shore up. (Zack Space in OH-18 comes to mind.)