UK local by-elections 2011

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Amusing set of results. The Greenies have another councillor nearby so it's not that surprising that they picked up some of the energy from the independent vote in Shirebrook.

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If it was built in the thirties, would it actually have been built directly for slum clearance? Most of the second generation (and the much smaller first generation; Addison Act houses) were built for skilled (as the term was understood then; often means something different now) workers and their families. The general idea was that the slum dwellers would then move into the houses that the skilled workers had left as they moved out to the new estates. Didn't work out like that, for obvious reasons.

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BISHOP'S CASTLE, Shropshire; caused by the resignation of a Lib Dem councillor.  One of Shropshire's tiny market towns, and until 1974 the smallest borough in England, the town is located twenty miles north-west of Ludlow, twenty miles south-west of Shrewsbury and just two miles from the Welsh border.  The ward itself includes eleven other tiny parishes in the same general area.  At the first unitary Shropshire Council election in 2009 the shares of the vote here were LD 47.7 C 40.5 Grn 11.8, the Lib Dem councillor having previously been a long-serving district councillor on the now-abolished South Shropshire district council.  Candidates for the by-election are the Lib Dems, Conservatives, Greens and Labour.

As well as Bishops Castle (known locally as 'The Castle' and, alas, generally pronounced in a way that's difficult to really describe with a standard alphabet. On the bright side, at least they don't speak the Clun dialect), which has a bit of a strange almost bohemian feel to it in spite of it being a quintessential remote Marches market town (this has been reflected in a strong Green Party vote), it includes countless tiny agricultural settlements on the western edge of the Long Mynd and the Onny Valley (Ratlinghope, Norbury, Asterton and so on) and the larger settlements in the Kemp Valley (the main one is Lydbury North) and a small part of what might be thought of (lol) as the greater Clun district, west of Bishops Castle. Most of these were closed villages, back in the day. And it shows.

I still have difficulty believing that Peter Phillips has resigned; he even ran for re-election (in 2009) when he was seriously ill. He was/is an old school Liberal, which is quite appropriate for what is (at least in places) a very old school Liberal area (though anywhere with as many farmers as this ward is certainly not generically poor territory for the Tories either). Phillips was a longserving councillor, despite being an abrasive prick. He will have had a personal vote, despite that. Perhaps because of it.

Candidates matter a great deal in places like this, of course. The Tory and the LibDem both live in the ward (the former in Lydbury North, the latter in Norbury. So far, so predictable). The Labour candidate (and it's been a long time since there's been one of those in this part of Shropshire. Get the impression that more than twenty votes would count as an achievement, but stranger things have happened) lives near Craven Arms, and the Green in Bucknell (on the far-off borders of distant Herefordshire). The Tory was a councillor (for the Bishops Castle & Onny Valley ward) on the old SSDC and lost to Phillips in 2009, the LibDem is a parish councillor and seems to be well-known locally, the Labour candidate is a well-known local-ish journalist (formerly of the Ludlow Advertiser), while it seems that the Green is another parish councillor, but presumably not for anywhere in the ward.

The main local issue to be aware of in Shropshire is the council. It is very right-wing*, rather incompetent, riven by nasty factional infighting, and is increasingly unpopular. Take that away and the chances of a Tory gain would look very likely indeed; with it... ah... this is completely unpredictable.

Will do the others later.

*Though 'Shropshire Tories are right wing' is a little bit 'sun rises in east, sets in west'. But a lot of people have been taken aback by recent antics.

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Mockery aside, it's a really nice area.

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Most of these were closed villages, back in the day.

What's a closed village?

Entirely dominated by a single landlord. The sort of place where, not so very long ago, candidates who were not Tories had to inform the electorate that the ballot was indeed secret.

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As much as 5% in Bishops Castle? I think that may count as a minor triumph.

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Anyway, after this I'm almost - stress on almost - willing to predict that the Tories lose that big majority on Shropshire council at the next election. Also looks bad for Llais next year. Their candidate in Penrhyndeudraeth didn't look up to much, but their choice in Blaenau wasn't so bad. Plaid's longtime strategy for much of Gwynedd (running people from the local establishment, however defined) seems to be working again.

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What do Llais Gwynedd actually stand for?  Just a sort of "not Plaid" but still very much Welsh, or something a bit more than that?

Basically it's a 'fyck you Gwynedd council' vote, combined (some of the time at least) with an intense parochialism. A protest party, in other words. But as to the people in it rather than their voters...

They they started as a group opposed to school closures on the Llŷn and in Meirionnydd (always an extremely emotive issue in Wales, especially this part of it) and this is the issue that they exploited with stunning results in 2008; most of Plaid's senior councillors were beaten by (including both their Party President and the Leader of the council) Llais candidates because of the issue. There are interesting parallels with People's Voice (and not just because of the similar name) as they attracted a very odd range of people, most of which had some grudge or other with Plaid, but who were (to put it mildly) not friendly with the established networks of Independents or with Labour. Two of their most high profile members are Owain Williams and Simon Glyn (who you may remember for this). The now-imprisoned Gwilym Euros Roberts was a good example as well; he had previously been a Plaid councillor (managing to lose his seat in 1999 of all years) but seems to have thought himself badly treated (though in his case that may have just been psychosis).

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The Conservative candidate in Norland, Catherine Faulks is the sister in law of Sebastian Faulks

lol

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Well.. I just thought I hadn't posted here for a while, came here to see if Andrew had some useful background to the by-elections which I didn't know already and thought I may as well post that here rather than another place.  I can talk in more detail about Vicarage if you prefer

Oh, I wasn't having a go at you; I just found that particular fact to be... well... lol. What else do you say, you know?

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I think the one result counts as 'lolbarnsley', actually. Weird result in Kent; UKIP as a tactical choice for Labour voters? Some local issue?

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Green belt/planning, I think

That might explain it yeah. Kent County Council has a (huge) Tory majority, Gravesham District has a Labour majority (centered entirely on Gravesend and Northfleet, naturally).

Of course, the ward in question was a two-party fight in May anyway; I missed that when looking earlier.

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No surprise that the Inverness seat was lost (circumstances, plus winning a seat on a low vote in the first place), but the party the seat was lost to is a bit of a surprise. Decent result for us in Leicestershire, I suppose.

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Decent result for us in Leicestershire, I suppose.

... but still a disturbingly high BNP vote, even if it's a bit lower than in 2009.  Is it a "white flight" sort of area?

All of Leicester suburbia is white flight. But this area more than most, yes. The BNP candidate is the District Councillor for East Goscote (just outside the division) and was actually re-elected in May, while another BNP candidate polled about 19% in the Syston East ward at the same time.

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Sparkbrook is a very interesting ward. I'll post more later, but I'll just note for now that back in the 1980s it was where Dick Knowles had his seat.

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If, as I suspect, Godsiff was about as popular as the Black Death in Moseley in 2010, then Sparkbrook ward would have to have been pretty close; significantly closer than the council election there on the same day.

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The support of the local mosques could be crucial in deciding the result.

Unlikely; remember most of the Muslim families there are from Azad Kashmir. So, for them, religion is mostly a family thing and the imam about as influential as a vicar. The biradaris are a different matter.

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Islington has a trendy reputation (Boris Johnson lives in this ward), b

Doesn't he live in St Peter's? I recall it being mentioned when there was a by-election in St Peter's last month (to replace the daughter of the Councillor who caused this by-election). Or has he moved home in search for the next local by-election?

Maybe he has two houses in Islington?

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Hilarious Sparkbrook result is hilarious.

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Ruabon is basically a Labour place, but local politics in most of North Wales is (and has always been) odd and that area is no different. Very personality orientated, as a general rule. The previous councillor ran for us in Montgomery in 2010 and 2011.

Interestingly, while the LibDems did well in Redcar town in May, they failed to make much of an impact in the other end of the seat. That might not seem of interest at first (Grangetown and so on being the sort of places that they are), but they must have done pretty well there the previous year. Anyways, Zetland is a fairly averagey middle of the road sort of place.

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Presumably the Brighton Greens are having some sort of honeymoon period?

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SNP hold Hillhead, LDem hold Poulton, Labour gain Ruabon, Tories gain Sighthill, Tories gain Wight West. Most of these - weirdly - were extremely close, it seems.

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SNP hold Hillhead, LDem hold Poulton, Labour gain Ruabon, Tories gain Sighthill, Tories gain Wight West. Most of these - weirdly - were extremely close, it seems.

I'm sure that occasionally happens in afleitch's better dreams...

loltiredness

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Yeah, quite a different result to some other recent ones in Scotland. Given the appalling weather, what was turnout like?

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The only time I have ever been in Walsall was in the back of an ambulance. I like the idea of keeping things that way.